Climate+Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Transcription

1 Climate+Change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Implications for Irrigation David Molden International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development The Hindu Kush Himalaya Global asset for food, energy, water, carbon, and cultural and biological diversity Kathmandu, Nepal 8 countries 240 million people in the HKH 1.9 billion people downstream Source of 10 major Asian river systems 1

2 Mountains support high lev els of agricultural diversity Diversity in the HKH: Over 1,000 living languages Yet Poverty Remains High HKH basins support some of the world s most populated areas Supports immense areas of irrigation Water-Food- Energy-Climate Change Equity and Sustainability Challenges Gender inequality, inclusiv e dev elopment 300M people malnourished 20% no electricity 70-80% food production depends on groundwater irrigation 5% land feeding 20% population 2

3 45 to 60 1 to 10 Current Climate (Heat Stress) RCP Scenario Now: Number of days with minimum temperature less than 30 o C. 2050: Number of days with minimum temperature less than 30 o C. Source: ALTERRA, Wageningen Environmental Rese Source: ALTERRA, Wageningen University Climate Change: Temperature Amplification in Mountains of the HKH Too hot for mountains 1.8 ± 0.4 C in a 1.5 degree world 2.5 ± 1.5 C in a 2 degree world (RCP4.5) West Rongbuk Glacier 3

4 Estimating cryosphere change and impact on water flows What is happening to the HKH cryosphere? Information on: temperature, snow, glaciers, permafrost, black carbon, rain Significant data gaps exist, especially at high elevation Studies based on field data, remote sensing and modeling Understanding role and importance of cryosphere Cryosphere monitoring programmes in Nepal and Bhutan Capacity development in the region 712 people since 2013 (25% women) Regional Cryosphere Knowledge hub Filling data gaps: Data from Nepal (since 2011) and Bhutan submitted to World Glacier Monitoring Service Snow Accumulation and Melt Processes in Himalayan Catchment (Snow-AMP) Meteorology and Hydrology Automatic weather station Hydrological station Glaciers Langtang Valley - for monitoring and training - 4

5 Karakoram Anomaly Most glaciers are losing ice volume Courtesy Walter Immerzeel Source: Kaab et al, 2015 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) results Source: Immerzeel, 2014 Area change -20 to -55% Indus: -20 to -30% Westerlies & Monsoon Westerlies Water and Climate Atlas Monsoon Shrinking Glaciers: Glacial Area Change by

6 Reference 2050 RCP 4.5 WET 2050 RCP 8.5 DRY Reference 2050 RCP 4.5 WET 2050 RCP 8.5 DRY Air Pollution and Black Carbon Impacts Contribution of glacier and snow melt runoff Indus Ganges Brahmaputra Raises temperatures Accelerates glacier and snow melt Negativ ely impacts health Reduces crop yield NOV APR SKY Source: Lutz, Immerzeel, Shrestha, Bierkens, Nature Climate Change, 2014 Sources of water flow Communities dependent on glacier and snow melt are feeling the impacts Nang, Ladakh, India 6

7 Upstream Irrigation systems in Nepal Midstream Courtesy: Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD Snow and Glacier melt Downstream Rainfed and spring Uttarakhand: 21,000 or 32,000 hill irrigation systems are springfed High Mountain Irrigation System (FMISs) Mid hills irrigation system (FMISs) River and groundwater Plain irrigation system (AMIS) Climate change impacts on water resources Loss of storage in the form of ice Greater impact for those living closer to glaciers Predicted annual flow volume no significant change Changing precipitation and flow patterns more floods and droughts; high uncertainty RCP 4.5 Source: Wingaard et al. 2017, PlosOne (Under review) Changes in extremes: Floods RCP 8.5 Relative change in 50 year return period of floods Extremes will increase strongly during 21 st century, approximate doubling in magnitude at end of century One-third of disasters are floods, many crossing national borders 7

8 What can we do about it? Irrigation is critical for many mountain communities Impacts on Local Communities: Loss of water source Passu, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan Photo c/o Choyang Norphel Artificial Glaciers Choyang Norphel 8

9 Solar Powered Pumping in Mountains Solar Powered Irrigation Pumps New financing models for women? Identification of Recharge Area Recharge Interventions for Springs Recharge Interventions for Springs 9

10 HKH-HYCOS: Setting up real-time monitoring stations in transboundary basins and establishment of flood information systems CBFEWS in G-B Pakistan Making information travel faster than flood waters Partners: hydromet agencies Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal & Pakistan Promotion of regional cooperation and timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and user friendly platform HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer, training, and capacity building under the Global framework of WMO s WHYCOS Community based early warning system 10

11 Resilient Mountain Villages Resilient outcomes through risk mitigation and livelihood diversification Recovery from shocks Improved adaptive capacity Transformative change Integrated, affordable, replicable approach to adaptation 8 pilot villages in Nepal +1,000 households 83% women farmers Upscaled to 14 districts by Nepal government Two Punjabs, One Atmosphere Courtesy of Arnico Panday, ICIMOD Communicating science to policy and decision makers 11

12 Climate Change Impacts Actions Higher temperatures Many places higher rainfall, more intense rainfall events, changing monsoon patterns Higher incidence of floods and droughts Cryospheric impact location specific More uncertainty and higher variability of flows Changing crop response, higher ET Climate change impacts are mixed with a range of other socio-economic drivers Manage irrigation water, drainage, rainfall Manage socio-economic + climate changes Work across sectors and disciplines to build resilience Work across boundaries to manage shared resources Storage including natural storage (soils, GW, wetlands) Take global action Photo: Karen Conniff Thank You 12