Midwest Solar Expo May 23, 2017

Transcription

1 Midwest Solar Expo May 23, 2017 Renaissance Minneapolis Hotel, The Depot Free WiFi is available: Connect to Renaissance_CONFERENCE Enter Passcode: JINKO Check the box agreeing to the Terms and Conditions Click Submit

2 Presentation Agenda: 1. Project Description 2. Solar Goals a. Recognizing solar value propositions 3. Solar Analysis 4. Addressing solar technologies and markets 5. Opportunities and Constraints 6. Next Steps 2

3 Project Staffing Core Team Stacy Miller, MN Department of Commerce Josh Quinnell, Center for Energy and Environment Brian Ross, Great Plains Institute Joel Haskard, Clean Energy Resource Teams Morgan Putnam, Clean Power Research Technical Team Morgan Putnam, Clean Power Research Nadav Enbar, Electric Power Research Institute Ran Fu, National Renewable Energy Lab Chad Abbey, Smarter Grid Solutions Josh Quinnell, Center for Energy and Environment 3

4 Over-Arching Goal: Collaborating to find least-risk, best-value strategies for Minnesota to achieve its solar energy goals 4

5 Reasons the Project was Proposed: Solar is our largest energy resource and declining costs have made it more economically accessible Solar variability (e.g., clouds, seasonal, daily) at high penetrations on the grid will pose integration challenges New technologies can be combined with solar to reduce the challenges posed by high penetrations of solar generation Solar markets and development opportunities vary across utility, community, and consumer types in Minnesota 5

6 MN Solar Pathways is a $2M, 3-year award from DOE SunShot 6

7 Technical Committee Erik Birkeland, City of Duluth Jim Giebel, City of Saint Paul Allen Gleckner, Fresh Energy Lloyd Nelson, Lake Region Electric Coop Eric Wojchik, Metropolitan Council Brandon Heath, MISO Annie Levenson-Falk, MN Citizens Utility Board Stacy Miller, MN Dept. of Commerce Jennifer Peterson, Minnesota Power David Shaffer, MnSEIA Nathan Jensen, Otter Tail Power Matt Boys, RES Group Dru Larson, Rochester Public Utilities Holly Lahd, Target Corporation Patrick Dalton, Xcel Energy 7

8 Stakeholder Engagement 8

9 Get out your phone... Go to Enter code No reception? No problem free WiFi is available: Connect to Renaissance_CONFERENCE Enter Passcode: JINKO Check the box agreeing to the Terms and Conditions Click Submit We will ask for your input three times today, so don t put the phones away... 9

10 Were you aware that Minnesota had a 10% by 2030 solar energy goal for energy sales? Yes No 10

11 Recognizing Value Propositions 11

12 Solar Goals and Standards Statutory Goals and Standards 1.5% Solar Electricity Standard (SES) by 2020 with a 10% small solar carve out 10% solar goal by 2030 (statewide) Community solar (policy innovation) Value of Solar alternative to net metering (policy innovation) $175 million in PBI and NEM cap increased to 1 MW (IOUs)

13 Solar Goals and Standards Statutory Goals and Standards 10% solar goal by 2030 (statewide) 216B.1691 Renewable Energy Objectives. Subd. 2f. (c) It is an energy goal of the state of Minnesota that, by 2030, ten percent of the retail electric sales in Minnesota be generated by solar energy. Credit: NREL Photo exchange Approximately 6 Gigawatts of solar capacity by 2030 Credit: Prairie Restorations Credit: Denver Int l Airport

14 Solar Goals and Standards Utility Goals and Plans Xcel Energy 2,400 MW, approximately 8% of energy generation (2016 Resource Plan) Otter Tail Power 1.5% of retail sales by 2020 (30 MW, 2017 Resource Plan) Rochester Public Utilities Voluntarily meet 1.5% solar generation standard (2020), increase solar capacity to approximately 5% of peak by 2030

15 Solar Goals and Standards Corporation Goals and Targets As of 2016, 22 Fortune 500 companies had set goals to acquire 100% of their energy from renewable energy resources. 1. Walmart (#1) 2. Apple (#3) 3. General Motors (#8) 4. Amazon (#18) 5. HP (#20) 6. Microsoft (#25) 7. Bank of America (#26) 8. Wells Fargo (#27) 9. Procter & Gamble (#34) 10. Alphabet (#36) 11. Johnson & Johnson (#39) 12. Goldman Sachs Group (#74) 13. Nike (#91) 14. AbbVie (#123) 15. Starbucks (#146) 16. Facebook (#157) 17. VF (#231) 18. Voya Financial (#252) 19. Biogen (#263) 20. Avon Products (#370) 21. Salesforce (#386) 22. Coca-Cola European Partners (#397)

16 Solar Goals and Standards City and District Goals Minneapolis 10% local or consumer purchased renewable energy by 2025 (Climate Action Plan) St. Louis Park 100% renewable energy by 2025 (Partners in Energy Plan) Rochester Destination Medical Center Climate neutrality by 2030 (Draft Development Plan) Saint Paul Ford Redevelopment Project Zero Net Energy, on-site solar generation

17 Why Value Proposition? 1. Identify range of value propositions a) Identify barriers and opportunities to achieve those value propositions in the current environment (markets, regulatory structure, infrastructure, social system) b) Identify critical actions to overcome barriers and realize value proposition opportunities 2. Conduct scenario analysis that recognizes different value propositions or combinations of value propositions a) Identify opportunities to capture synergies among value propositions b) Identify tradeoffs in emphasizing different value propositions 17

18 Why Solar? Value Propositions... Why focus on solar energy? Zero emission fuel Sustainability Local resource Development opportunity Energy independence Enables resilience Low-cost/low risk Job creation Carbon free 18

19 Solar Value Propositions Use your phone to respond (Directions again, in case you re no longer logged in) Go to Enter code Conference WiFI Renaissance_CONFERENCE Enter Passcode: JINKO Check Terms and Conditions Submit 19

20 If choosing just one value proposition, which of these examples is most relevant to your business, organization, or community? 1. Capturing the energy supply or economic benefits (low cost of solar electricity) 2. Capturing the environmental benefits (carbon reductions, reducing pollutants associated with fossil fuels) 3. Building resiliency (on-site generation/decentralizes the grid, enables micro-grids, creates backup power options) 4. Promoting job creation and economic opportunity (employment, investment, tax base) 5. Improving the social equity considerations of energy choice and renewable investment 6. Something else not listed here... 20

21 If you answered something else, or thought the list was missing a value proposition, type in two or three words to describe what was missing. 1. Capturing the energy supply or economic benefits 2. Capturing the environmental benefits 3. Building resiliency 4. Promoting job creation and economic opportunity 5. Improving the social equity 6. Something not listed here... 21

22 Any Questions or Comments? About value propositions and how they are used in the project? 22

23 Technical Analysis and Modeling 23

24 Solar Potential Analysis (SPA) Scenario-based analysis that examines the potential for key technologies to overcome the variability and intermittency challenges encountered with increasing solar penetration Key technologies include: demand side management; energy storage; geographic dispersion; synergy with wind; and smart curtailment Seeks to determine the lowest levelized cost of electricity for dependable solar power production requirements at increasing levels of solar penetration 24

25 Prototype SPA Modeling Tool 25

26 SPA Key Outputs 1. The optimized portfolio of solutions for each load scenario 2. LCOE including LCOE of each solution 3. The optimized dynamic curtailment profile of PV production 4. The optimized operational characteristics of storage systems 5. The optimized load management requirements 26

27 Solar Deployment Strategy (SDS) The SDS will be shaped by a stakeholder engagement process. The SDS will be designed to be a replicable and living analysis to inform choices between different solar deployment strategies without seeking to set policy. The SDS will calculate the economic impacts and market incentives created by different solar portfolios and rate structures and the consequent ability of utilities, ratepayers, institutions, communities and the State of Minnesota to realize their solar priorities or goals 27

28 Envisioned SDS Modeling Tool The Technical Committee will synthesize input from the larger set of stakeholders to define the scenarios studied and certain methods of the calculation 28

29 What do you think the SDS model is missing that is important? 29

30 What is your best estimate for the current installed costs of the following: Community scale solar (1 MW) Large commercial (200 kw and above) Small commercial (below 200 kw) Residential systems 30

31 What non-solar technologies will have the greatest long-term effect on solar deployment in Minnesota? For example, Load control Load shifting Energy storage Smart inverters Electric vehicles Other 31

32 Opportunities, Constraints 32

33 Moving from Goals to Deployment 1. Identify type and range of value propositions for different stakeholders 2. Identify barriers and opportunities to achieve those value propositions in the current environment (markets, regulatory structures, infrastructure, social constraints) 3. Identify critical actions to overcome barriers and realize value proposition opportunities 33

34 What do you believe are the primary opportunities for solar deployment in the current market/environment? 1. Continuing downward cost of solar across all types of deployment 2. Large scale solar farms 3. Community/shared solar development 4. Commercial/industrial on-site development 5. Residential/small business on-site development 6. Opportunities for resiliency/backup power 7. Need to address climate or other environmental concerns 8. Other opportunities not listed 34

35 What do you believe are the primary constraints to solar deployment in the current market/environment? (pick up to three) 1. Lack of access to affordable capital (large scale or on-site) 2. Utility rate design or tariffs 3. Interconnection process (behind-meter or farms/gardens) 4. Grid integration or reliability problems 5. Impact of solar on utility revenue streams 6. Other technology needs be developed/deployed 7. Consumer misinformation 8. Lack of or uncertainty about incentives 9. Environmental regulatory uncertainty 10. Income inequality and lack of access 11. Other constraints not listed 35

36 Next Steps... 36

37 Next Steps... Gather data and information for the Solar Potential Analysis, interconnection study, and hosting capacity analysis Conduct additional stakeholder outreach on opportunities and constraints Additional feedback from today is welcome Looking for organizations willing to assemble and host focus groups Looking for communication opportunities at workshops, conferences, meetings Stay tuned for results, more information, and opportunities to participate (and check the website!) 37

38 Learn more & spread the word! mnsolarpathways.org