Global Environmental Policy

Transcription

1 Global Environmental Policy Outline of this lecture series. How to read statistics data? Long-term viewpoint Suspect an interpretation and the data itself! How to make a policy? Quiz 11, April, 6 Jun TAKAHASHI 16% 1% 1% % 8% 6% % % Japanese Energy Balance on 1 (Source EDMC3) % Others=2 Nuclear=19 Hydro=5 = =28 =74 Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Total Loss=47 in especially Power Generation Loss=32 Input Energy for Electricity=53, Efficiency=% (Nuclear=19, Hydro=5, =14, =12, =4) Electricity=22 =7 =11 =59 Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Non-energy=2 Residential & Commercial=27 Transport=25 Industry=47 (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery, Mining, Construction, Manufacturing) Final Energy Consumption by al shears of the world total final energy consumption (Unit: %) Electricity Electricity Homework Subject Write some graphs by using the given data. And, propose the quantitative policy of fossil fuel saving by using those graphs. Submit this homework by Power Point File by to jun@sunshine.naoe.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp by April 17 th 5 Industry Transport Other s Non- Energy Use 5 Industry Transport Other s Non- Energy Use If you want to submit this as one of the final reports, submit a complete version by July 25th again. 1

2 Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (199-1) Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (1973-1) (Mtoe) (Mtoe) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) (Mtoe) (Mtoe) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) 287*.94= CO2 Emission (Mt-C) Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (1965-1) (Mtoe) *.94= (Mtoe) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) Japanese CIF Price of Crude ($/bl) Japanese CIF Price of Crude CIF: Cost + Insurance + Freight $/bl yen/l Japanese CIF Price of Crude (yen/l) 2

3 Exchange Rate (yen/us$) GDP and Increasing Rate Exchange rate (yen/us$) GDP (trillion yen) GDP Increasing Rate Increasing Rate (%) Primary Energy Consumption per Capita (toe/person) Primary Energy Consumption per Capita (toe/person) World 1.5 OECD 4.72 USA 8.17 Canada 8.16 Australia 5.74 Non-OECD.76 China.74 India OECD Average growth curve of 3.35% annual rate World Average NonOECD Average Number of Passenger Cars in China (million) Logistic Function N 1 e y ( t t )/ s m 3 5 3

4 Total Primary Energy Supply and Final Energy Consumption al shears of the total final energy consumption (%) Statistics of by EDMC3 GDP CO2 Emission Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption Industrial Transportation Other (Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, etc.) s Non-energy use Million 1995 USG$ Mt-C Mtoe % Mtoe % Mtoe % Mtoe % Mtoe % Mtoe % World 6,27 34,199 6,422 9, ,35. 2, , , OECD 1,125 27,675 3,47 5, ,612. 1, , , Non- OECD 4,91 6,525 2,952 3, ,424. 1, Japan 127 5, USA 282 9,9 1,58 2, , China 1,262 1, India 1, World OECD Non-OECD Japan USA China India Upper Middle Lower Total Primary Energy Supply Industrial Transportation Other s Non-energy use 6 8 GDP CO2 Emission Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption Industrial Transportation Other (Residential, Commercial, Agriculture, etc.) s s world statistics rearranged by per population Source: EDMC3 Million 1995US$ /person t-c /person toe /parson toe /parson toe /parson toe /parson toe /parson World 6,27 5, OECD 1,125 24, Non- OECD 4,91 1, Japan , USA , China 1, India 1, World OECD Non-OECD Japan USA China India Total final energy consumption per capita (toe/person) Total Primary Energy Supply Industrial Transportation Other s Non-energy use Upper Middle Lower - Unit: toe/person

5 Transition of the population in the world Source: UN / billion World OECD Non-OECD / billion Transition of the population in the world Source: UN 人口 ( 億人 ) China 中国 India インド USA アメリカ Russia ロシア Japan 日本 Germany ドイツ UK イギリス France フランス Italia イタリア World Final Energy Consumption In terms of the CO 2 issue... we will not do anything that harms our economy. Because, first things first, are the people who live in America. If I had my way, I'd have [tax cuts] in place tomorrow, so that people would have money in their pockets to deal with high energy prices. F i n a l E n e rg y C o n s u m p t i o n ( M t o e ), 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Non Energy Use (Non-OECD) Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (Non-OECD) Transport (Non-OECD) Industrial (Non-OECD) Non Energy Use (OECD) Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (OECD) Transport (OECD) Industrial (OECD) , ,424Mtoe 1, ,612Mtoe 6, , , , ,97Mtoe 8, ,547Mtoe 5

6 Sustainable Energy Supply and Consumption Target to Sustainable Society (Energy Supply) F in a l E n e rg y C o n s u m p tio n (M to e ), 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Non Energy Use (Non-OECD) Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (Non-OECD) Transport (Non-OECD) Industrial (Non-OECD) Non Energy Use (OECD) Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (OECD) Transport (OECD) Industrial (OECD) , ,43Mtoe Non Fossil Fuel Fossil 8,27.7 8, ,7Mtoe Residential, Commercial and Agriculture : 1.6 toe/person@oecd Save 5% (.53 toe/person) by co-generation etc. Supply.53 toe/person by renewable energy Transport : 1.8 toe/person@oecd Save 65% (.7 toe/person) by fuel efficient technology etc. Supply.38 toe/person by fossil fuel Industrial :.97 toe/person@oecd Save.17 toe/person (5% of processing) by co-generation Save.33 toe/person (5% of material production) by recycle and renewable materials Supply.17 toe/person by renewable energy Supply.33 toe/person by fossil fuel as raw material Non Energy Use (. toe/person@oecd) is assumed to be kept. Supply. toe/person by fossil fuel as raw material As a result, final energy consumption per capita will be 1.51 This is less than half of 3.21 toe/person@oecd However,.7 toe/person will be supplied by renewable energy Then, consumption of fossil fuel will be.81 toe/person This is only 17% of primary fossil fuel Target to Sustainable Society (Energy Supply) HOW TO MAKE A POLICY? At, 1.5 toe/person of fossil fuel is supplied for 6,27 million people. Then, 9,43 Mtoe of fossil fuel is consumed annually. In the sustainable society, Final energy consumption is 1.51 toe/person.81 toe/person is supplied by fossil fuel.7 toe/person is supplied by renewable energy Then, at 3, when the world population is 8,27 million, About 6,7 Mtoe of fossil fuel is consumed annually. This is 74% of current fossil fuel consumption About 5,8 Mtoe is supplied by renewable energy. This is more than 5 times of current electric power generation THIS IS JUST A SET OF TARGETS. How to realize? How is cost effectiveness? In which turn should it perform? Plan Do Check Action Plan Do Check Action Improvement Step1: Information gathering Council, etc. Global and individual problem Related statistics Step2: Policy decision Government Vision (ideal target) decision Examination of the realization method Bottom-up approach; Industry respect type Top-down approach; Target achievement by innovation or integration How to execute and what cost effectiveness is expected? Law creation, administrative guidance, etc. Budget application (Control by the subsidy and the taxation system) Reconsideration of a realizable vision 6

7 World Energy Balance on 3 (Source IEA statistics) OECD Energy Balance on 3 (Source IEA statistics) % 147% Hydro Nuclear Natural Hard Crude Combustible Renewables & Waste 68% % Electricity Petroleum Products Non-energy Others Transport Industry % 1% 1% % 8% 6% % % % 144% Hydro Nuclear Natural Hard Crude Combustible Renewables & Waste 7% % Electricity Petroleum Products Non-energy Others Transport Industry % 1% 1% % 8% 6% % % Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Final Energy Consumption by % Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Final Energy Consumption by % 7

8 16% 1% 1% % 8% 6% % % Japanese Energy Balance on 1 (Source EDMC3) % Others=2 Nuclear=19 Hydro=5 = =28 =74 Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Total Loss=47 in especially Power Generation Loss=32 Input Energy for Electricity=53, Efficiency=% (Nuclear=19, Hydro=5, =14, =12, =4) Electricity=22 =7 =11 =59 Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Non-energy=2 Residential & Commercial=27 Transport=25 Industry=47 (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery, Mining, Construction, Manufacturing) Final Energy Consumption by % 8% 6% % % Shear of Japanese Total Primary Energy Supply % New energy Hydro-Geo Nuclear Japanese Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel Japanese Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) New energy Hydro-Geo Nuclear 8

9 Sectional Energy Consumption of the World Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD countries World Total Primary Energy Supply Total Primary Energy Supply million 6152 Mtoe 466 Mtoe million 3763 Mtoe 2839 Mtoe million 723 Mtoe 7287 Mtoe million 5395 Mtoe 3754 Mtoe Sectional Energy Consumption of the World (Mtoe) Electricity Combustible Conversion Industry Transport Other Non-Energy Loss s Use Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD countries (Mtoe) Electricity Combustible Conversion Industry Transport Other Non-Energy Loss s Use Sectional Energy Consumption of Non-OECD countries Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD and Non-OECD countries (3) Sectional Energy Consumption of Non-OECD countries (Mtoe) million 5114 million Total Primary Energy Supply 239 Mtoe 5328 Mtoe 1767 Mtoe 3534 Mtoe Electricity Combustible Conversion Industry Transport Other Non-Energy Loss s Use Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD of Non-OECD countries (Mtoe) OECD Non-OECD 1154 million 5114 million Total Primary Energy Supply 5395 Mtoe 5328 Mtoe 3754 Mtoe 3534 Mtoe Electricity Combustible OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non Conversion Loss Industry Transport Other s Non-Energy Use 9

10 Sectional Energy Consumption of the World Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD countries World Total Primary Energy Supply Total Primary Energy Supply million 1.58 toe/capita 1.18 toe/capita million 4.17 toe/capita 3.15 toe/capita million 1.71 toe/capita 1.16 toe/capita million 4.67 toe/capita 3.25 toe/capita Sectional Energy Consumption of the World (toe/capita).6 Electricity Combustible Conversion Loss Industry Transport Other s Non-Energy Use Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD countries (toe/capita) 1.6 Electricity Combustible Conversion Industry Transport Other Non-Energy Loss s Use Sectional Energy Consumption of Non-OECD countries Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD and Non-OECD countries (3) Sectional Energy Consumption of Non-OECD countries (toe/capita) million 1.4 toe/capita.69 toe/capita. Electricity Combustible million Conversion Loss Total Primary Energy Supply Industry.8 toe/capita Transport Other s.59 toe/capita Non-Energy Use Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD and Non-OECD countries (toe/capita) OECD Non-OECD 1154 million 5114 million Total Primary Energy Supply 4.67 toe/capita 1.4 toe/capita 3.25 toe/capita.69 toe/capita Electricity Combustible OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non Conversion Loss Industry Transport Other s Non-Energy Use

11 地球の温度の計算 ( その 1: 単純計算 ) 地球の温度の計算 ( その 2: 補正された計算 ) 1 2 温度 T の物体 ( 地球 ) から放射される単位面積 単位時間あたりのエネルギーは σt 4 [J/m 2 s] (σ は物理定数 : [J/m 2 sk 4 ] ) よって 地球 ( 半径 R) の表面から放射される単位時間あたりのエネルギーは 4πR 2 σt 4 [J/s] 5 実際の地球の平均気温 ( 約 15 ) との食い違いの原因は? (1) 大気による入射エネルギー (πr 2 S) の反射 (2) 大気による放射エネルギー ( 4πR 2 σt 4 ) の反射 ( 正確には赤外光の吸収と再放射 ) 温室効果 3 同様にして 太陽から放射されるエネルギーが計算できるので そのうちの地球に当たる部分も計算でき これを単位面積 単位時間あたり S [J/m 2 s] とすると 地球表面に入射する太陽からのエネルギーは πr 2 S [J/s] (S=1367 [J/m 2 s] 単位面積あたり 1367 ワット!) 6 上記 (1) については 地球の場合の反射率は 3% だから 計算し直すと.7 πr 2 S= 4πR 2 σt 4 T 4 =.7S/4σ= /( )=42 8 T=255 [K]=-18 [ ] 4 入射エネルギーと放射エネルギーがつりあって 地球は現在の温度になっているのだから 現在の地球の温度を T とすると πr 2 S= 4πR 2 σt 4 T 4 =S/4σ=1367/( )=6 8 T=279 [K]=6 [ ] 7 8 地球の実際の平均温度である 15 との差 33 が上記 (2) の温室効果によるモノである 入射を遮るガスが増加すれば地球は冷え 温室効果ガスが増加すれば地球は温暖化する 5 実際の地球の平均気温 ( 約 15 ) との食い違いの原因は? Calculation of the amount of solar energy Solar energy flowing into the earth.7 πr 2 [m 2 ] 1367 [J/m 2 s] = [m 2 ] 1367 [J/m 2 s] = [J/s](6 9 人で割ると 2 7 [J/ 人 s]) = [kcal/s]( 5 [kcal/ 人 s] = 5 [kcal/ 人日 ]) =2.94[Mtoe/s]( 5 [goe/ 人 s]=15[toe/ 人年 ]) 参考 食事により摂取されるエネルギーは約 kcal/ 人日で これは石油 1kg から得られるエネルギーの約 5 分の 1 世界の一次エネルギー供給量は約 9 億 toe/ 年 ( 世界平均で約 1.5toe/ 人年 = 約 4koe/ 人日 ) で 食事として必要なエネルギーの約 倍 非 OECD 平均は約 2koe/ 人日 OECD 平均は約 13koe/ 人日 ( 日本は約 11koe/ 人日 米国は 22kg/ 人日 ) 11

12 Global Environmental Policy Japanese TFC by (Mtoe) 18, April, 6 Jun TAKAHASHI Energy saving and policy making Industrial sector Residential and Commercial sector Transport sector (Mtoe) Non-Energy Commercial Residential Transport (Freight) Transport (Passenger) Industry (Non-Manufacture) Industry (Manufacture) Japanese Final Energy Consumption per capita (1) Japanese Final Energy Consumption per capita (toe/person) Non-energy Commercial Residential Transport (Freight) Transport (Passenger) Industry (Non-manufacture) Industry (Manufacture) Japanese Final Energy Consumption per GDP (toe/million yen) Japanese Final Energy Consumption per GDP (1) Non-energy Commercial Residential Transport (Freight) Transport (Passenger) Industry (Non-manufacture) Industry (Manufacture) 12

13 Japanese Final Energy Consumption per GDP (2) Japanese per GDP and Capita Japanese Final Energy Consumption per GDP (toe/million yen) Industry (Manufacture) Industry (Non-manufacture) Transport (Passenger) Transport (Freight) Residential Commercial Non-energy Japanese Total Final Energy Comsumption Per GDP (toe/million yen) TFC per GDP TFC per Capita Japanese Total Final Energy Comsumption Per Capita (toe/person) CO2 Emission per GDP (t-c/million ) CO2 Emission per GDP and Capita CO2 Emission per GDP (t-c/million yen).5 CO2 Emission per capita (t-c/person) CO2 Emission per capita (t-c/person) CO2 Emission (Mt-C) Japanese CO2 Emission by (Mt-C) Transport Residential & Commercial Industry

14 Change of TFC by (in comparison with 1973) Change of by Industry (Manufacture) Industry (Non-Manufacture) Transport (Passenger) Transport (Freight) Residential Commercial Non-Energy The Items of Final Energy Consumption(368Mtoe/%) Japanese Energy Consumption in Industry Industrial (171/47) Manufacturing(156/42) Material(112/3) Steel(/11) Chemicals(51/14) Cement(11/3) Paper and Pulp(/3) Processing/assembly (44/12) Foods(6/2) Textile(3/1) Nonferrous metals(3/1) Machines(/3) Others(23/6) Non-manufacturing(15/4) Agriculture, Forestry & Fishery Mining Construction (99/27) Residential (52/14) Heating(14/4) Cooling(1/) Hot Water Supply(15/4) Cooking(3/1) Power & etc. (19/5) Commercial (47/13) Non Energy Use(7/2) Transport (91/25) Passenger(59/16) Car (Private)(5/14) Car (Commercial)(2/) Bus(1/) Airplane(4/1) Ship(/) Railway(2/1) Freight(32/9) Truck(26/7) Airplane(1/) Ship(5/1) Railway(/) Asphalt, grease, paraffin, lubricating oil, etc. Japanese Energy Consumption in Industry (Mtoe) Non-manufacture Foods Machines Other Manufacture Textile Nonferrous metals Paper and Pulp Cement Chemicals Steel 14

15 Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential / Mtoe Power & etc. Cooking Hot water supply Heating Cooling Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential / Mtoe Cooling Heating Hot water supply Cooking Power & etc Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential / toe par capita Power & etc. Cooking Hot water supply Heating Cooling Japanese and The Number of Households and The Number of Households (million) Number of Households Number per Household The Number Per Household 15

16 Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential / toe per family Power & etc. Cooking Hot water supply Heating Cooling Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential / toe per family Cooling Heating Hot water supply Cooking Power & etc Transition of population composition of Japan Japanese Populatioin / Million total after % of after 65 year %

17 Energy Consumption in Transportation (Mtoe) Energy Consumption in Transportation (Mtoe) Car (Private) Car (Business) Bus Truck Airplane Ship Railway Passenger Transport Activity (billion passenger-kilometers) 1,6 1, 1, 1, 8 6 Passenger Transport Activity (billion passenger-kilometers) Car (Private) Car (Business) Bus Airplane Ship Railway Passenger Transport Activity per Capita (km) Energy Consumption in Passenger Transport (Mtoe) Passenger Transport Activity per Capita (km) 12,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Car (Private) Car (Business) Bus Airplane Ship Railway Final Energy Consumption in Passenger Transport (Mtoe) Car (Private) Car (Business) Bus Airplane Ship Railway

18 Energy Consumption per Passenger Transport Activity Energy Consumption per Passenger Transport Activity (goe/passenger-km) Avarage Car (Private) Car (Business) Bus Airplane Ship Railway Energy Consumption per Passenger Transport Activity Energy Consumption per Passenger Transport Activity (goe/passenger-km) Avarage Car (Business) Airplane Railway Car (Private) Bus Ship Freight Transport Activity (billion tonne-kilometers) Freight Transport Activity (billion tones-kilometers) Truck Airplane Ship Railway Final Energy Consumption in Freight Transport (Mtoe) Energy Consumption in Freight Transport (Mtoe) 35 Truck 3 Airplane Ship 25 Railway

19 Energy Consumption per Freight Transport Activity (1) Energy Consumption per Freight Transport Activity (2) Energy Consumption per Freight Transport Activity (goe/ton-km) 8 6 Avarage Truck Airplane Ship Railway Energy Consumption per Freight Transport Activity (goe/ton-km) Avarage Truck Airplane Ship Railway Number of Car (Million) Japanese Number of Cars (1-1) Bus Truck Passenger Car Japanese Number of Cars (1-3) Number of Truck per capita Number of Bus per population of Number of Passenger car per capita

20 Japanese Number of Cars (1-4) Number of Truck per GDP (million yen) Number of Bus per GDP (million yen) Number of Passenger Car per GDP (million yen)