Parallel Session All people. Demographics, socio-economic trends and implications for SUMPs

Transcription

1 2 nd European Conference on Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans Parallel Session All people Demographics, socio-economic trends and implications for SUMPs

2 Aim of the session 25 year look ahead Who are the people and what are their travel needs and desires? How should this influence the SUMPs we prepare now?

3 Structure of the session Timing: 11: 30-13: mins + 5 q.a. Claudia de Stasio (TRT Trasporti e Territorio) COMPASS Project Octavia Stepan (University of architecture and urban planning Ion Mincu) Case study of Suaceva (RO) Michael Glotz-Richter (City of Bremen) Case study of Bremen (DE) Concluding remarks

4 Key drivers for future mobility patterns Evidences from the COMPASS project Claudia de Stasio 2 nd European conference on SUMP, Bucharest 17 June 2015

5 Summary 1. COMPASS Project 2. Key drivers research 3. Social domain 4. Economy domain 5. Environmental domain 6. Technological domain 7. Key challenges for planning

6 COMPASS Project Optimised co-modal passenger transport for reducing carbon emissions FP CONSORTIUM Edinburgh Napier University TRI UK Istituto di Studi per l'integrazione dei Sistemi ISIS Italy University of Leeds ITS UK Mcrit S.L. Mcr Spain MKmetric Gesellschaft für Systemplanung mbh MKm Germany TRT Trasporti e Territorio TRT Italy TTS Italia TTS Italy Technische Universität Wien TUW Austria Uniwersytet Gdanski UG Poland

7 Key drivers and future trends Analysis of drivers and trends affecting: Society Economy Environment Technology Which impacts on EU future transport system?

8 Domains, factors and drivers

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10 Uncertainty of trends predictions WHERE? Which direction? HOW MUCH? Intensity? HOW FAST? Rapidity? HOW? Which interrelationships? synergies, rebound effects, counterbalances, vicious or virtuous cycle HOW STEADY? Reversibility?

11 Social Trends Ageing population By 2060 in EU: 30% of population > 65 (today is 17% ) Transport supply will need to adapt to elderly people Increase in public spending on pensions, health care and long term care Reduced capability for investing in transport infrastructure

12 Social Trends Migration flows Cumulative net migration to EU by 2060 about 55 Million, most in the Eurozone (42 million). The travel behaviour of immigrants is scarcely researched Immigrants flock to urban areas, altering the composition of large cities More walking and more use of public transport Their mobility patterns are expected to change in case of improved economic conditions

13 Social Trends Urbanization By 2050 more than 80% of European population is expected to live in urban areas, thus putting more pressure on urban transportation systems Adjustment on urban and transport planning is needed ITS could play a key role in monitor networks, manage pricing schemes, provide traveller information and enable use of in-vehicle devices

14 Social Trends Lifestyle and behaviour More time on virtual spaces More interest in social networks and in technological gadgets rather than in owing a car Could everyday mobility be reduced given the homeworking and home-entertainment options provided by new technologies? Emerging sustainable consumption culture on transport Shared mobility emerging

15 Economic Trends GDP trends EU economic recovery remains still uncertain In the current scenario any long-term forecast about the GDP trend is hard Regional differences in economics Oil reserve and price The gap is expected to enlarge Price volatility

16 Environmental Trends Energy availability, production and consumption By 2030 world energy use will probably increase > 50% EU energy production still largely based on fossil fuels? GHG reduction More and more prominent in policy makers agenda Climate change Transport systems severely affected by extreme weather conditions and disruptive events

17 Technological Trends New vehicles design Micro-city cars Advance Driving Devices Traction technologies ITS and ticketing Increase efficiency of transport systems for users (saving time&money) and for operators (collected) data Consciousness of mobility choices

18 Key challenges for future planning Meet the traveller needs of an ageing population Plan urban and suburban transport networks to face an increasing demand Incentivize the emerging «sustainable consumption» culture To make environmental aspects enter the market (i.e. polluter-pays and user-pays policies) Network resilience to extreme weather conditions Others

19 Thanks for your attention Claudia de Stasio