Speicher vs. Netze in Deutschland

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1 Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst Die Diskussion um Speicher vs. Netze in Deutschland Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst, Wien, Februar 2017

2 Flexibility need in the German electricity system will increase Wind Capacities and expansion target [GW] Lower Saxony Schleswig-Holstein Bremen Hamburg Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Berlin [GW] Installed capacity of renewable energy sources (RES) will increase in the entire of Germany Flexibility need will grow Several options can provide flexibility: Saxony-Anhalt Brandenburg Storage North Rhine-Westphalia Rhineland-Palatinate Hesse Thuringia Saxony Supply Demand Saarland Bavaria Baden Württemberg Source: Own illustration based on NEP2024 Wind Capacities [GW] Installed Onshore Installed Offshore B 2034 Onshore B 2034 Offshore Grid TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 2

3 System perspective Adaptation of optimal capacity? Load duration curve [MW] P inst, 1 P inst 2 P inst, 3 Costs [ /MW] C fix3 C ST C fix2 C fix1 C var1 *t 1 Storage plant? Technology 1 C var2 *t 2 C var3 *t 3 Time [h] Technology 2 Technology 3 Necessary generation portfolio what will change? Reduction of base-load and mid-load Increase of peak-load Increase of storage power plants What to do with the surplus? Store Export Decreases variable production costs (as surplus will probably be cheap ) Demand Side Management (Smart Market) Curtail surplus Time [h] t 1 t 2 t h TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 3

4 Hours with surplus renewable feed-in will increase in Germany Exemplary residual load duration curve for Germany MW The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) significantly influences the residual load: Number of hours with negative residual load rises Surplus of RES feed-in increase Level of maximal negative residual load grows * RES share (20%)* (60%)* (75%)* What to do with the surplus? Store, export or curtail? TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 4

5 Electricity system model ELTRAMOD to analyse the interdependence between storage need, grid extension and renewable curtailment Model purpose Fundamental system analysis Integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the European electricity market Flow calculation based on Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) Trade-off between grid and storage extensions Optimal dispatch of power plant capacity Main characteristics Bottom-up electricity market model Temporal resolution of 8760 hours Calculation of the cost-minimal generation dispatch and investments in additional transmission lines and storage facilities Country specific times series of wind and PV feed- in TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 5

6 Grid and Storage Extensions in Europe till 2050 An application of ELTRAMOD for the Energy System Analysis Agency ( RES feed-in obligation RES curtailment Grid extensions (NTC) 500 MW 1000 MW 3000 MW MW MW MW > MW 4640 Storage extensions MW No storage extensions RES feed-in obligation: every available unit of RES has to be integrated RES Curtailment: the surplus of RES supply can be curtailed => RES priority feed-in significantly influence the need of further storages and transmission capacities. TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 6

7 Removing the feed-in obligation affects the grid and storage extension Non integrated RES surplus supply without grid and storage extensions Non integrated RES surplus supply with grid and storage extensions Additional transmission capacities up to 2050 (NTC) Also for keeping up obligation feed-in a RES surplus supply will occur The shifting to curtailment schemes has got a low impact no integrated RES generation => However: significant difference for grid and storage extensions settings Central statement: feed-in obligation From the economic point of view it is not optimal to integrate every available unit of RES. RES should be demanded for system stability and further market integration. curtailment 10.2% 11.9% 0.9% 3.7% GW 143 GW Additional storage capacities up to GW 7.9 GW => Mid term perspective: grid extension and stronger market integration, then storage TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 7

8 Impact of RES-E share and CO 2 -prices Share of RES-E generation Mid-term (< 40%): Nearly no change in storage demand Long-term (>60%): Increase of storage demand, but still moderate Long-long-term (>85-90%) Significant increase of storage demand! Cost of CO 2 Low CO 2 -price (<15 /t): Good for storage power plant (cheap base-load) High CO 2 -prices (>40 /t): Amount of storage at 50% RES-E at about todays storage level => Storage need is quite sensitive to RES-E share and CO 2 costs, but unfortunately in a cotradicting way! TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 8

9 Additional transport requirement necessitates grid extensions and leads to cost increase Transport requirement Grid extensions Cost increase 6.4 Ø 7.3% +8.1% +7.9% % bn. EUR +4.8% Source: Consentec (2016), Netzstresstest Distribution of RES causes add. Transport requirement from North to South Source: NEP2030 Grid extension requirement quantified and concretized by TSOs TransnetBW Amprion Tennet 50Hertz Source: Own calculations based on NEP % increase in transmission grid cost within ten years TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 9

10 Omission of necessary investments causes high congestion management cost Historic congestion management cost Projection ,400 Conegstion management cost [mio. EUR] year delay in grid extension, only 1 HVDC link Grid extensions according to NEP 969 ~1 bn. Extension cost delta NEP 5 years delay Strong increase in redispatch and curtailment cost due to Horizontal congestions in the transmission grid (North South) Vertical congestions in the distribution grid 5 years delay in grid extension causes additional cost of 1.8 bn. EUR Respective invest delta: 10 bn. EUR (~ 1 bn. EUR annual cost) Source: BNetzA Monitoringreports, own calculations based on ELMOD grid model International Germany TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 10

11 Development of storage market influences grid extension requirements Strong PV, little wind, high load situation Extreme scenario with 150 GW PV and battery storage in 2035 (thereof 80% in the South) Reversal of load flows in strong wind and high load situations from South to North Reduced load flows from North to South in strong wind situations High market penetration of domestic PV / storage systems due to fast price declines may alter future grid extension requirements Source: Consentec (2016), Netzstresstest Studie im Auftrag der TenneT TSO GmbH TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 11

12 Large differences in profitability of large- and small-scale storage due to regulation Average spot price [EUR\MWh] Large-scale storage Avg. 1000h high price Avg. 1000h low price Diminishing spreads compromise profitability of storage and do not justify new investment Profits on balancing Taxes Other levies EEG levy Grid charge Generation & selling Decentralized PV storage 30.6 ct/kwh Large-scale storage has to earn money on market spreads Self-consumption from decentralized PV allows to save on grid charge, levies and taxes >40% of new PV installations <10 kw contained battery storage in 2015 (only 14% in 2014) Large-scale storage investment hardly profitable due to small spreads Domestic PV storage profitable dependent on the regulatory environment Source: EPEX Spot, BNetzA: Monitoring Report 2016, RWTH Aachen: Wissenschaftliches Mess- und Evaluierungsprogramm Solarstromspeicher 2016 TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 12

13 Storage applications its the competition what matters Energy arbitrage Ancillary services Avoidance of renewable curtailment Generation, transmission & distribution grid deferral End user application Managing energy costs and RE-feed-in (also P2H) Emergency application Electric Mobility TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 13

14 Conclusion Grid vs. storage expansion for RES system integration? Stronger market integration of RES Mid term perspective: rather need for investments in grid than in large-scale storage Each option has to deal with one main challenge: Grid expansion: social acceptance Large-scale storages: low profitability Competitiveness of small-scale storages depends on regulatory framework and technological progress (cost development) TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics, Prof. Dr. Möst 14

15 Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft, Prof. Dr. Möst