STATEWIDE AIR EMISSIONS CALCULATIONS FROM ENERGY EFFICIENCY, WIND AND RENEWABLES. May 2008

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1 STATEWIDE AIR EMISSIONS CALCULATIONS FROM ENERGY EFFICIENCY, WIND AND RENEWABLES May 28 Jeff Haberl, Bahman Yazdani, Charles Culp Energy Systems Laboratory Texas Engineering Experiment Station Texas A&M University System Energy Systems Laboratory p. 1

2 Electricity Production from Wind Farms (22-27) Wind Power Generation (MWH) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Texas Wind Power Generation (Source: ERCOT & PUC) ,6 3,2 2,8 2,4 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 Installed Capacity (MW) Sep- 1 Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep Ercot Data - MWH Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep Ercot Data - MW Total Installed Capacity in Ercot Area by 26 Total Installed Capacity in Texas by 26 Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec Installed capacity of wind turbines was 3,26 MW (March 27). Announced new project capacity is 3,125 MW by 21. Lowest electricity period occurs during Ozone Season Period. Energy Systems Laboratory p. 2

3 Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms What issues did TCEQ ask ESL to resolve to calculate OSP NOx reductions from wind farms in the base year? 1.% Capacity Factors Using NOAA Daily Models Capacity Factor 9.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% Measured CF (Oct 1 to Sep 2) 1999 CF 2 CF 21 CF 22 CF 23 CF 24 CF 25 CF Average CF ( ) OSP 2.% 1.%.% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Large variations in measured power vs base year power production in the OSP. Energy Systems Laboratory p. 3

4 Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms Turbine Power (kwh/h) Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (On-site) Hourly electricity produced vs onsite wind data acceptable for hourly modeling. Issue: hourly on-site data not always available On-site Wind Speed (MPH) Next, looked at hourly electricity produced vs NOAA wind data. Issue: too much scatter. Turbine Power (kwh/h) Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (NOAA) NOAA Wind Speed (MPH) Energy Systems Laboratory p. 4

5 Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms Average Daily NOAA Wind Speed (MPH) Frequency of Occurrence Daily Wind Speed (1/21-9/22) % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% On-Site Wind Speed (MPH) Wind Speed Distribution (Oct. 21 to Sep. 22) On-site Wind Speed NOAA Wind Speed Next, compared daily on-site wind data vs daily NOAA data Result: Daily data was acceptable when frequency of occurrence was similar. 1% % Wind Speed (MPH) Energy Systems Laboratory p. 5

6 Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms 1% Capacity Factors Using Daily Models 25 Capacity Factor 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Measured CF On-site Daily Model CF NOAA Wind Speed NOAA Daily Model CF On-site Wind Speed OSP Average Daily Wind Speed Per Month (mph) 1% % Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-2 Feb-2 Mar-2 Apr-2 May-2 Jun-2 Jul-2 Aug-2 Sep-2 Month Next, compared NOAA and on-site daily models to see how well the predicted OSP electricity production. (Result: acceptable). Energy Systems Laboratory p. 6

7 Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms OSD MWh Savings (Prelim inary Estim ates) Energy savings summary: (program wise) MWh/OSD 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Base year 1999 Projection year 22 Adjustment factors Annual degradation factor 5 5.% T&D loss.% Initial discount factor 6 25.% According to SB 2, Growth factor section Final Issue: TCEQ asked ESL to develop an integrated tool to project NOx reductions from wind farms through 22 by county, using egrid, including: + discount, + degradation, + T&D losses & + growth. Tons/Ozone Season Day OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT) Energy Systems Laboratory p ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program) SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal Buildings Furnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily 22

8 Introduction Energy Emissions and Impact Factor Upgrade Impact Use NOx Avg.Life Factor Industries: 6% 23% 5 2 yr 1 5 Vehicles: 19% 54% 7 1 yr 4 5 Buildings: 21% 22% 25 5 yr 5 11 Buildings substantially impact emissions! SOURCE: Statewide Use: USDOE/EIA, 1999 Statewide Emissions: TNRCC 2 Energy Systems Laboratory p. 8

9 Energy Efficiency Reporting NOx emissions reductions calculated from new residential and commercial construction using EPA s egrid and AP-42 (Result: 1.75 tons/osd). Total OSD NOx Emissions Reductions (SF, MF and Commercial Buildings).6 Non-attainment and Affected Counties Other ERCOT Counties OSD NOx Emissions Reductions (Tons/yr) HARRIS TARRANT COLLIN DALLAS BEXAR TRAVIS DENTON WILLIAMSON EL PASO MONTGOMER GALVESTON BRAZORIA COMAL ROCKWALL HAYS NUECES FORT BEND ELLIS JOHNSON GUADALUPE KAUFMAN JEFFERSON PARKER SMITH BASTROP CHAMBERS GREGG SAN LIBERTY VICTORIA ORANGE CALDWELL WILSON HARDIN HARRISON WALLER UPSHUR RUSK HOOD HUNT HENDERSON HIDALGO CAMERON BELL WEBB BRAZOS KENDALL BURNET GRAYSON CORYELL MIDLAND LLANO MAVERICK MCMULLEN ARANSAS WICHITA TAYLOR TOM GREEN MCLENNAN MCCULLOCH WISE JIM HOGG VAL VERDE ECTOR WHARTON KERR PRESIDIO JIM WELLS CALHOUN GILLESPIE MATAGORDA NAVARRO ANGELINA NACOGDOCH FANNIN ATASCOSA WASHINGTON LAMAR VAN ZANDT WILLACY BROWN ERATH AUSTIN COOKE MEDINA TITUS UVALDE FAYETTE CALLAHAN HOPKINS LAMPASAS BLANCO FREESTONE GRIMES LEE SOMERVELL ANDREWS BORDEN County Energy Systems Laboratory p. 9 Single Family Houses Multifamily House Commercial Buildings Natural Gas (SF+MF+Commercial)

10 Integrated NOx Savings In 25 the TCEQ initiated a program to determine integrated NOx emissions savings (213 and beyond) to allow for savings to be reported to the EPA State Agencies included: TEES/ESL, PUC, SECO, ERCOT/Wind Savings Integration allows: Annual, OSD savings By County By SIP By Program Integration tool = Adjustable Discount, Degradation, T&D losses Energy Systems Laboratory p. 1

11 Tons/Ozone Season Day Integrated NOx Savings: Results OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT) Cumulative NOx emissions reductions calculated across state programs (213). 16. Tons/Ozone Season Day ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program) SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal Buildings Furnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT) Code Compliance (1.75 tons/day) Federal Buildings (.81 tons/day) Furnace Pilot Lights (.32 tons/day) PUCs SB7,SB5 programs (4.78 tons/day) SECO Political Sub. (.84 tons/day) Green Power (Wind) (12.32 tons/day) SEER 13 Retrofits (11.3 tons/day) Total (4.86 tons/day) ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program) SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal Buildings Furnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily Annual Reporting to the TCEQ, papers, QAPP, etc. Energy Systems Laboratory p. 11

12 ESL CONTACT INFORMATION Jeff Haberl: Bahman Yazdani: Charles Culp: Energy Systems Laboratory p. 12