SENSE 2008 Summer School on Earth System Governance. Barriers and opportunities for energy leapfrogging in China - an Earth System Governance analysis

Transcription

1 SENSE 2008 Summer School on Earth System Governance Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, August 2008 Barriers and opportunities for energy leapfrogging in China - an Earth System Governance analysis patrick.schroeder@vuw.ac.nz

2 Barriers and opportunities for energy leapfrogging in China - an Earth System Governance analysis Presentation Outline: 1. Energy scenarios for China 2. Technological transitions and leapfrogging 3. Earth System Governance - Architecture - Agency - Adaptiveness - Accountability/Legitimacy - Allocation/Access

3 "Even if emissions from developed regions could be reduced to zero in 2050, the rest of the world would still need to cut emissions by 40% from BAU to stabilise at 550 ppm CO 2 e (parts per million carbon dioxide equivalent). For 450 ppm CO 2 e, this rises to almost 80%". The Stern Review, Chapter 8

4 Storyline One: China built 78 GW of electricity capacity in 2007 alone, which brought the country to over 600 GW of total capacity China installs two new coal-fired power stations per week China is now the world s biggest emitter of CO 2

5 Business-as-usual (BAU)

6 Storyline Two: Alternative Scenarios WBCSD Pathways 2050

7 China s Energy Research Institute Green Growth scenario

8 Greenpeace [r]evolution scenario Development of primary energy consumption under the IEA reference scenario Development of primary energy consumption under the alternative [r]evolution scenario Under the energy [r]evolution scenario CO 2 emissions will remain stable at around the current (2003) level of 3,300 million tonnes.

9 Barriers and opportunities for energy leapfrogging in China - an Earth System Governance analysis Presentation Outline: 1. Energy scenarios for China 2. Technological transitions and leapfrogging 3. Earth System Governance - Architecture - Agency - Adaptiveness - Accountability/Legitimacy - Allocation/Access

10 Environmental Leapfrogging

11 Tunneling through

12 Developed Countries High demand on biosphere per person Minimum acceptable level of Human Development leap frogging Sustainable Development Human Development Index High demand on biosphere per person Low human development business as usual Developing Countries World average biocapacity available per person Ecological Footprint per person CSCP 2007

13 Renewable Power Capacities in 2006 (GW) for Developing Countries, EU, and Top Six Individual Countries (excluding large hydropower) REN

14 China will lead the world renewable energy market within three years. REN

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18 Barriers and opportunities for energy leapfrogging in China - an Earth System Governance analysis Presentation Outline: 1. Energy scenarios for China 2. Technological transitions and leapfrogging 3. Earth System Governance - Architecture - Agency - Adaptiveness - Accountability/Legitimacy - Allocation/Access

19 Earth System Governance Architecture Global level: UNFCCC negotiations International level: Multilateral and bilateral initiatives (AP6, EU Energy and Environment Programme) National level: China National Leading Group to Address Climate Change Renewable Energy Law and power sector reforms Provincial and local level: Local government bodies

20 Earth System Governance Agency Local and provincial governments Financial institutions Industry sectors (oil and coal, foreign and national) Central Government National Bureau of Energy (under NDRC) (Ministry for Environmental Protection) Research institutions NGOs and GONGOs ESCOs Renewable energy companies Multilateral organisations (UNDP, UNEP, REEEP, GEF, etc)

21 Earth System Governance Adaptiveness High Vulnerability Increasing Resilience Energy intensive industries Dirty Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Industry Rising household energy consumption Change of economic structure to low-carbon industries Encouraging investment in cleantech Changing consumption behaviour

22 Earth System Governance Accountability/Legitimacy Post-2012 Climate Change Agreement Legitimacy of the Communist Party/Central Government Accountability of Local Actors (governments and enterprises) Solutions to (local) environmental problems

23 Earth System Governance Access/allocation UNFCCC process: CDM and technology transfer Programmatic CDM Mitigation Fund Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) Identify IPR relevance for specific technologies China s IPR system

24 One World One Dream

25 Time s running out: Global Warming is happening! Source: Tim Jackson 2006

26 dankzegging (Thank you)