Chelan PUD. Energy Resources Quarterly Board Update. October 19, 2015

Transcription

1 Chelan PUD Energy Resources Quarterly Board Update October 19, 2015

2 Energy Planning & Trading 2015 Q3 Portfolio Overview (Gregg Carrington) Market Update (Janet Jaspers) Operations and Planning (Janet Jaspers) Streamflow and Pricing update Net Wholesale Revenue Forecast update Lake Chelan recap of Water Year Energy Efficiency Update (Gregg Carrington) 2

3 District s Load/Resource Balance (average MW) 3

4 Market-based Hedges (average MW) 4

5 5% slice awarded to Trans Alta on 4/28/15 5

6 Millions $160 Net Wholesale Revenue Projections (existing slice and blocks only) $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $123 $121 $118 $124 $101 $100 $120 $120 $90 $80 $134 $59 $20 $

7 Market Info 10/8/15 MW Daily Brown signs California s new clean energy law The governor of California, Jerry Brown, signed into law Wednesday the Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act of 2015 that mandates an increase of the state s renewable portfolio standard, or RPS, and seeks to create a Western-wide RTO. The law calls for upping the supply of power generated from renewable energy resources from 33% to 50% by the end of 2030, and to begin the process of transforming the California Independent System Operator into a regional organization to promote expanded use of clean energy in California and participating western states. 10/8/2015 MW Daily Gas surpassed coal for July power generation For only the second time this year, and only the second time since such data started being collected in 1973, gasfired power edged coal-fired generation for a full calendar month, according to a report released Wednesday by the US Energy Information Administration. For the month of July, gas fueled 35% of the nation s total electricity generation compared to coal s 34.9%. The only other time gas edged out coal was in April, with 92,516 GWh for gas versus 88,516 GWh for coal for the month. 10/8/15 MW Daily Emission trading likely in the West under Clean Power Plan Narrowing of rules under the final Clean Power Plan should steer states toward one of two emissions trading schemes, according to a discussion at this week s Western Power Trading Forum in Portland, Oregon.

8 Columbia River Flow Update for

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10 Mid-C Flat Annual Wholesale Electricity Prices 10

11 Short term market info Oct 2015 Henry Hub natural gas 8/10/15: $2.72 9/18/15: $2.60

12 $/MW $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 MIDC Flat Forward Price Curve (ICE DA index prices for previous months) $ /5/2015 7/9/ Budget (11/19/2014) 12

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14 Millions $170 Net Wholesale Revenue Forecast $150 $130 Blue dashed line: NWR forecast using 11/20/14 ICE prices and 10/10/2015 ICE prices for /4/15 Q1 update $110 7/20/15 Q2 update $90 $70 $50 $30 NWR forecast ($M_Budget) NWR forecast ($M_10/7/15) NWR forecast ($M_Q1 Board Update) NWR forecast ($M_Q2 Board Update) Black solid line: NWR forecast using 10/6/2015 ICE prices for and E3 View for Filled squares= prob. model White squares= det. model

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16 El Nino Predictions Tom Dunklee Global Forecast Center Preliminary El Nino Report Cool and occasionally wet weather for much of the NW this fall with rainfall and mountain snowfall generally decreasing from west to east. Chances of above average snowfall in December and early January about 60 to 67%. Increased likelihood of Arctic Outbreak in early December and again early to mid January Above average precipitation frequency and amount over Western BC, Western WA and much of Western Oregon Reduced likelihood of strong flood events over Western WA and Northwest Oregon Snowfall amounts at 100 to 125 percent of average through January first, then declining for late winter and early spring. Drying weather overall for late Winter. 16

17 Energy Efficiency Update Compliance Target is 1.08 amw Stretch Target is 1.8 amw On Track Through September 30, 2015 Savings to Date¹ (amw) Cost (Incentives and Labor) $/MWh Over the Life² Est. Market Value Over the Life 1.3 $ 2,400,000 $ $5,500,000 ¹Based on completed projects, expected NEEA savings, and projects in the pipeline ²Based on weighted average life of the measures completed and in the pipeline. 17

18 Important Upcoming Dates 2015 is an I-937 target setting year The target is for the 2016/2017 biennium Nov. 16, recommendation for a 2016/2017 target to the Board of Commissioners (Review results of the Conservation Potential Assessment) Dec. 7, public hearing and request for Board adoption (Public Notice in Nov. 1 Wenatchee World) By Dec. 31, make available to the public the target and supporting documentation 18

19 Questions? 19