Modeling Committee Update

Transcription

1 Modeling Committee Update OTC Annual Meeting June 3, 2016 Philadelphia, PA 1

2 Overview 1. Air Quality Data/Ozone NAAQS 2. Modeling Update a. Emission Inventory b. Episodic Modeling 3. Health Benefits 2

3 Concentration (ppb) Ozone Trends in the OTR th Maximum 8-Hour Ozone in the OTR OTR Trendline Before the 8-Hour NAAQS 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS

4 # Days Trends for Exceedance Days P # Days > 84 # Days > 75 # Days > 70 Linear (# Days > 70) 4

5 Preliminary Design Values (DV) Potentially Marginal Nonattainment 8-Hour Concentration (ppb) Below 55 Potentially Moderate Nonattainment 5

6 Potential Nonattainment ppb NAAQS Based on preliminary ozone values Marginal Moderate Note: Not all counties have ozone monitoring Based on CBSA Boundaries in most cases 6

7 Meeting the 2008 Ozone NAAQS Based on preliminary ozone values Bump-Up SIPS are due Jan. 1, 2017 Bumped-up to Marginal Moderate Moderate Eligible Was Clean eligible Data for 1-Year for Extension Year Extension Clean Data 7

8 2016 Thresholds by State State Preliminary DV ppb th Max to Exceed 75 ppb th Max to Exceed 70 ppb th Maximum as of 5/26/2016 ppb (Threshold Monitor) Connecticut * (69)* Delaware (64) District of Columbia (67) Maine (63) Maryland (64) Massachusetts (68) New Hampshire (64) New Jersey * (63) New York * (64)* Pennsylvania (64)* Rhode Island (57) Vermont (59) Virginia (67)

9 2016 Thresholds by Monitor th high ozone value that will cause monitor to exceed NAAQS for Threshold (ppb) In 2016, there are already: 12 ozone exceedance days 288 monitor exceedances 146 Individual monitors exceeded All OTR states exceeded except Maine >75

10 Population Exposed to Unhealthy Ozone Air Quality 10

11 Average Hours Above 70ppb People per Square Mile 50 to to to to to to

12 Average Hours Above 70ppb People per Square Mile 50 to to to to to to

13 Hours of Exposure in the OTR 13

14 2015 Ozone NAAQS Timeline October 2015 Final Rule December 2015 Effective Date for NAAQS October 2016 Submit Nonattainment Designation Recommendations ( ) October 2017 EPA Nonattainment Area Designations October 2018 Infrastructure/Transport SIP Due Attainment by (October): Marginal Moderate Serious 14

15 2011 Modeling Platform 15

16 Technical Support Document Progress is well along on 2011 platform TSD Includes: Meteorological evaluation Biogenic evaluation Model performance evaluation Documentation of emissions processing Modeling results Episodic modeling protocol (separate document) 16

17 Emission Inventory Update Current modeling still focused on the 2011-based Alpha2 Emission Inventories Next round of full season ozone modeling will use incrementally improved Beta emission inventories Target completion is Summer 2016 A public outreach process for emission inventory improvements will occur in Mid-June through MARAMA 17

18 Emission Inventories Alpha 2011 Alpha Beta Beta Improvements Project future year to 2017 Upgrade to ERTAC v2.5 MOVES2014a Emission Factors Small EGU Temporalization Include new rules (e.g. residential wood NSPS) State Adjustments/Updates BEIS (from BEIS 3.6) Include state banked emissions EMF Growth Grey years are complete 18

19 Thousands Tons NOX/year Alpha 2 NO X Inventory Summary Other Area Non-EGU Point Oil/Gas Nonroad EGU Onroad OnRoad 1000 EGU NonRoad Oil/Gas 500 Non-EGU Area est. Population MANE-VU LADCO SESARM CENSARA 67 million 52 million 61 million 52 million 19

20 NOx Emission Distribution 2014 Population Density 2011 NOx Emissions People per Square Mile 50 to to to to to to Tons per Day per 15 km Grid Cell 20

21 Emission Inventory vs. NASA Satellite 2011 NOx Emissions 2011 NOx Observed 21 General emission patterns match observed satellite data

22 Emission Inventory vs. NASA Satellite 2011 NOx Emissions NO 2 Reduction (2005 to 2014) None More Tons 22

23 Modeling Planning 2011 Base Case Beta Emissions 2017 Base Case Beta Emissions 2028 Base Case Alpha2 Emissions Sensitivity Modeling 2011 Base Case Contribution 2011 Base Case 4km Nested Grid 2018 Episodic Scenarios 23

24 Health Benefits 24

25 Rollback Overview Data from hourly monitored Ozone data Rolled back the monitor data Monitors with a 4th high >70ppb had ozone reduced through peak shaving to meet the NAAQS Employed health functions and economic valuations that are used by EPA in RIAs population projected from 2010 Census Conservative Estimate Analysis does not consider Downwind benefits from upwind controls Benefit of over control on borderline monitors Mortality from long-term Ozone exposure 25

26 4 TH High 8-hour Ozone

27 Changes in O 3 Concentration after Rollback Average ppb change in max 8hr ozone

28 Costs of Ozone Mortality from Mortality, All Causes (all ages) Ranked 2016 OTR+VA Mortality Causes Endpoint Deaths Rank Hepatitis C Low Birth Weight Skin Disease Multiple Sclerosis Asthma Cervical Cancer Reduced Incidence/Economic Benefit (95% CI) (460-1,400) $7,900 ($990-$14,000) 190 (97-290) $1,400 ($200-$2,800) 100 (50-150) $800 ($100-$1,510) Note 1: Mortality that results from ozone exposure could be labeled in data as from asthma, COPD, etc. Note 2: OTC BenMap results only include VA in OTR 28

29 Questions Committee Chair: Jeff Underhill (NH) (603) Modeling Lead: Mike Ku (NY) (518) Emissions Inventory Lead: Julie McDill (MARAMA) (443) OTC Committee Lead: Joseph Jakuta (202)

30 Extra Slides 30