CMP MARKETS & VALUE CHAIN PERSPECTIVES

Transcription

1 CMP MARKETS & VALUE CHAIN PERSPECTIVES MICHAEL CORBETT MANAGING PARTNER LINX CONSULTING A PRESENTATION FOR THE CMP USERS GROUP JULY 17, 2007 LINX CONSULTING

2 OUTLINE 1. Introduction to Linx Consulting 2. Developments Impacting CMP 3. CMP Markets and Key Value Chain Components 4. Conclusions LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 2

3 LINX CONSULTING LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 3

4 LINX CONSULTING IS FOCUSED IN ELECTRONIC CHEMICALS AND MATERIALS % TOTAL SEGMENT 100% Deposition CMP Lithography Chemicals Liquid crystals LM Films Substrates Gases Total = Deposition Liothography Lead frames & wires Chemicals Wafers Gases Chemicals and gases Substrates Polymerics SEMICONDUCTOR LCD PACKAGING % TOTAL ELECTRONIC CHEMICALS Notes: 1.Units are $ billion 2.PCB chemicals and materials are estimated at $10.5 billion 3.Compound semi including in semiconductor

5 LINX JOINS INDUSTRY EXPERTISE WITH INSIGHTFUL SERVICE INDUSTRY EXPERTISE SEMI LCD/ OLED PV LED Pkg& Assy Strategic planning CLIENT SERVICES Technology Ideas to market Operational optimization Customer relationship LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 5

6 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS - SERVICES OFFERED CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INDUSTRY ANALYSIS REPORTS UPCOMING INDUSTRY ANALYSIS REPORTS 1. CMP Technologies and Markets to the 45 nm Node 2. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation: Technologies and Markets 3. Opportunities in Imprint Lithography 4. Semiconductor Industry Direct Consumables Model 5. Specialty Abrasives in CMP 1. Advanced Thin Film Processes & Materials (in-process) 2. Electronic Materials in Photovoltaics (in-process) 3. CMP Technologies and Markets to the 32 nm Node 4. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation to 32 nm Node 6. Advanced Patterning LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 6

7 CMP - 32 nm NODE REPORT CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Growth in CMP Operations Growth in Slurries and Pads Suppliers Regional distribution of polishes 2. METHODOLOGY 3. BACKGROUND AND MODEL DRIVERS 4. CMP APPLICATIONS Aspects covered for each of the following applications: Challenges Typical POR Consumables Key IP Activities of leading users Markets (65 nm and above) Bulk Copper 65, 45 & 32nm ECMP technology Copper end point 65, 45 & 32nm Copper barrier 65, 45 & 32nm Tungsten 65, 45 & 32nm STI 65, 45 & 32nm Oxide 65, 45 & 32nm Emerging applications 5. CMP TOOLS & EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Leading tools/platforms Tool supplier characterization Impact of new technologies Consumable selection 6. MARKET ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTS Total consumables market Slurries Pads CMP operation forecasts CMP by applications CMP by device segment 7. SUPPLIER ASSESSMENT Leading suppliers Slurry suppliers Pad suppliers Conditioner suppliers 8. BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND OPPORTUNITIES CMP consumables Customer considerations Influence of tool producers Sustainability of suppliers Interviewee comments LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 7

8 DEVELOPMENTS IMPACTING CMP LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 8

9 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY GROWTH 1,000 50% % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Dollars Units $ % Chg # % Chg -40% LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 9

10 WAFER STARTS % > Total = 120,939 Digital Bipolar Optoelectronics Discrete Analog GateArray Std Cell PLD Oth ML Communication Computing DSP MCU MPU Oth NV NOR NAND SRAM DRAM LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 10

11 UNIT OPERATIONS % FSG ALD ECD Cu SiCOH >1 Cleans CMP ARCs Implant i-line resist 248nm resist 193nm resist LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 11

12 WAFER STARTS % > Total = 204,226 Digital Bipolar Optoelectronics Discrete Analog GateArray Std Cell PLD Oth ML Communication Computing DSP MCU MPU Oth NV NOR NAND SRAM DRAM LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 12

13 UNIT OPERATIONS % ALD ECD Cu SiCOH FSG >1 Cleans CMP i-line resist 248nm resist 193nm resist ARCs Implant LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 13

14 MEMORY TOTAL % OF COPPER POLISHES LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 14

15 CMP MARKETS AND VALUE CHAIN LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 15

16 SLURRY MARKETS - $875 MILLION IN 2006 LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 16

17 STI AND OXIDE MARKETS STI $100 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Slurry Slurry Growth $ % OXIDE $300 20% $200 $100 10% Slurry Slurry Growth $ % LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 17

18 TUNGSTEN AND WAFER POLISH MARKETS TUNGSTEN $200 20% $100 10% Slurry Slurry Growth $ % WAFER POLISHING $400 80% $300 60% $200 40% Wafer GROWTH $100 20% $ % LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 18

19 COPPER AND BARRIER MARKETS COPPER $300 $200 $100 40% 30% 20% 10% Slurry Slurry Growth $ % BARRIER $200 40% $100 30% 20% 10% Slurry Slurry Growth $ % LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 19

20 SLURRIES AAGR(%) 2006 TO 2010 LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 20

21 LEADING SLURRY SUPPLIERS - CONCENTRATION HITACHI CCMP CCMP CCMP PLANAR FUJIMI % share LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 21

22 VALUE CHAIN ABRASIVES - $225M IN 2006 LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 22

23 CHANGES IN ABRASIVES MIX CMP ABRASIVES EMPLOYED APPLICATION CURRENT NODES IN PRODUCTION 65 NM 45 NM COMMENTS OXIDE FS CS FS CS Ceria FS will slow down after 45 nm TUNGSTEN FS FS CS HPCS FS CS HPCS FS will slow down after 45 nm STI Ceria FA likely for advanced logic BULK COPPER Alumina CSI CSI HPCS ECMP not seen as likely to impact forecasts BARRIER FS CS HPCS CS HPCS HPFS slow down at 45 nm FINAL WAFER POLISH HPCS HPCS will remain dominant material due to purity STOCK POLISH CS No major changes LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 23

24 ABRASIVES MARKET, Abrasive type CAGR (%), Colloidals 23.5 Fumed 2.5 Others 12.4 LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 24

25 LEADING ABRASIVES SUPPLIERS (%) LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 25

26 RATIO OF ABRASIVES TO SLURRY ($ BASIS) LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 26

27 CONCLUSIONS LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 27

28 CONCLUSIONS Increased proportion of wafer starts are for DRAM and NAND -> new slurry demand drivers Change in abrasives mix from more commodity to more engineered products may lead to increases in slurry prices The chemo effect will continue to remain of critical importance, however, slurry producers with an integrated position in or preferred access to engineered abrasives may become advantaged Limited influence of emerging technologies on slurry demand ECMP, fixed abrasives and novel barriers DRAM AND NAND conversion to copper complete at 45 nm drives copper growth and limits future growth in oxide and tungsten Conversion to 300 mm slows down growth of wafer polishing LINX CONSULTING SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON 28