Emissions Inventory and Modeling

Transcription

1 Emissions Inventory and Modeling P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Presentation for the 12th AIM International Workshop NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-21, 2007

2 Agenda Energy Overview Emissions Inventory of India AIM Modeling for India Energy Snapshot (ESS) Model Application AIM CGE Model Application LCS Modeling (separate presentation)

3 Energy Overview

4 Sector Share in Primary Energy Use Residential 4% Other 22% Agriculture 3% Transport 23% Total Mtoe Industrial 48% Residential 5% Agriculture 5% Other 19% Transport 24% Total Mtoe Industrial 47% 2000 Residential 13% Other 10% Total Mtoe 2005 Residential 14% Agriculture 4% Other 2% Total Mtoe Agriculture 4% Transport 19% Industrial 54% Transport 18% Industrial 62%

5 Fuel Share in Primary Energy Use 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coal Gas Oil Hydro Nuclear Renew ables

6 Fuel-mix Share in Power Generation 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Coal Gas Oil / Gas Biomass Wind Hydel Nuclear

7 Energy Trade Oil Imports Oil Exports Coal Exports Coal Imports Exports Mtoe Imports

8 Emissions Inventory Overview

9 Emission trends for GHG Emissions N20 5% Other 1% N20 4% Other 1% CH4 36% CH4 24% CO2 58% CO2 71%

10 Sectoral shares of CO2 emissions in India 1990 Others 17% Total 617 Mt Transport 9% Others 5% Total 1193 Mt Transport 14% Power 42% Pow er 55% Industrial 27% Industrial 31%

11 Sector-wise CO2 emissions for India Sector CO 2 emissions (Mt CO 2 ) Electricity Iron and steel Fertilizer Cement Other Industries Transport Other Sectors All India

12 Sector shares in CO2 emissions: India, Other Sectors 17% 1990 Transport 14% Pow er 42% Cement 3% Other Ind. 9% Iron & Steel 12% Fertilizer 3% Pow er Fertilizer Iron & Steel Other Ind. Cement Transport Other Sectors Transport Cement 9% 3% Other Sectors 5% 2004 Other Ind. 21% Pow er 54% Iron & Steel Fertilizer 7% 1% Pow er Fertilizer Iron & Steel Other Ind. Cement Transport Other Sectors

13 Fuel-wise CO2 emissions Gas Oil Coal Mt CO

14 Per Capita CO2 Emission Mt CO2

15 District-wise CO2 Emissions Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan hanistan Tajikistan hanistan China China Pakistan Pakistan Nepal Nepal Bhutan Bhutan Bangladesh Bangladesh India India Myanmar (B Myanmar (B Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Maldives Maldives Indonesia Million ton < Indonesia

16 CO2 emission from Power Sector (2005) Uzbekistan hanistan Tajikistan CO 2 Emissions from Power sector (2005) China Pakistan Nepal India Bhutan Bangladesh Myanmar (Bu Legend CO 2 Emissions (mil. tons) more than 8.67 Maldives Sri Lanka Indonesia

17 CO2 emission from Cement Sector (2005) Uzbekistan Tajikistan hanistan CO 2 Emissions from Cement sector (2005) China Pakistan Nepal Bhutan India Legend CO 2 Emissions (mil. tons) Maldives more than 0.60 Sri Lanka Bangladesh Myanmar (B Indonesia

18 AIM Modeling for India Energy Snapshot (ESS) Model Application

19 Scenario Storylines Scenario A: India, where a large part still resides in villages though demographic indicators have changed but still a long improvement to go. The economy dependent largely on the manufacturing sector. Scenario B : India, which policy makers are aspiring for characterized by high growth rates, rapidly improving demographic indicators, driven by economic reforms and high levels of social spending. Higher penetration of technologies and environmental consciousness amongst people.

20 Population Projections of India A B Poplation (Million) Scenario A : As per UN Population Projections Scenario B : Own projections for a highly urbanized India

21 GDP Projections Scenario A, CAGR - 5.8% Scenario B, CAGR - 7.0% B GDP 2005 = A Scenario A : Closer to GDP estimates in the WEO, 2006 of IEA Scenario B : Assumes 8% CAGR till 2032 as per Planning Commission Estimates

22 Level of Urbanization 80% Percentage 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% B A 20% 10% 0%

23 GDP Share Coming from Transport in Future

24 Demand for Passenger Transport in Future Per Capita Demand (Billion Pkm) Demand Demand Rail Demand Air Per Capita (Pkm/ person)

25 India 2050 : Residential Sector D E/D C/E C'/C Total 500% 400% 408% vs 2000's 300% 200% 100% 0% 226% 132% 90% 31% 8% -100% -200% -300% -400% -113% -186% -324% -194% 2050 A 2050 B

26 India 2050 : Transport Sector D E/D C/E C'/C Total 400% 334% 300% vs 2000's 200% 100% 0% -100% -200% 120% -128% -43% -65% -16%-11% -67% -4% -300% -262% 2050 A 2050 B

27 AIM Modeling for India AIM CGE Model Application

28 GDP Growth Projections till , CAGR - 7.0% GDP 2005 =

29 Scenarios Carbon Constraint Emissions in future restricted at Year 2000 Level Technology Push Greater Co-operation resulting in technology transfers Similar to Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development Faster technological improvements

30 Model Data Inputs I/O Table India 1999 (Source, CSO) 115 X 115 Commodities Aggregated to 4 X 4 Commodities AIM/CGE: 4 Sectors/Commodities 2 Energy and 2 Non Energy Sectors Energy Fossil & Non Fossil Fuels Non Energy Manufacturing & Services

31 Results Sector Growth Rates ( ) 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% Mfg Other Sector Fossil Fuel Other Energy Base Carbon Constrained Technology Push

32 Results - CO2 Emissions Base Case 4.22% CAGR Carbon Constraint Scenario Same as Year 2000 Technology Push Reduces 1.12% CAGR (Over Base Case)

33 LCS Modeling (separate presentation)

34 Contributions, Capacity Building and Dissemination 1. Multi-gas emissions inventory assessment (Period: 1985 to 2005) Mapping of district level and point source level emissions inventory for India Inputs to India s Second National Communications exercise Data for Baseline Assessment for CDM Projects for F-Gases and Electricity Sector 2. AIM Model Applications (Contributions, Capacity Building and Interfaces) Energy Snapshot Model Applications for India CGE Model Applications for India Modeling for Low Carbon Society and Stabilization Assessment 3. Dissemination and Interfaces Stern Report IEA s World Energy Outlook (2006) IPCC AR4 & New Scenarios APN s CAPaBLE Project UNEP s Development and Climate Project India s Second National Communication EMF 22

35 Future Work 1. Multi-gas Emissions inventory assessment Mapping of New District Level and Large Point Source Emissions Inventories for India Emissions Coefficient for New and Future Technologies Forestry and Land-use Database 2. AIM model applications New Emissions Scenarios Integrating Innovations, Co-benefits and Sustainability Indicators Extended Snapshot Model Application for India for LCS Scenario AIM/CGE Model Development for India New applications to support global clean energy and climate change programs and initiatives 3. Capacity building, dissemination, interfaces and contributions to National and International Assessment Initiatives together with the AIM team