NEESPI FRC Workshop Environmental Changes and Socio- Economic Consequence in Mongolian Plateau Region

Transcription

1 NEESPI FRC Workshop Environmental Changes and Socio- Economic Consequence in Mongolian Plateau Region By Dr Lin Zhen Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences 7 Nov 2006, Beijing

2 Outline Background Climate change and socio-economic responses Herders perceptions over the changes Drivers of the changes LUCC updating and soil sampling

3 BACKGROUND Discussion of Foreign Aid Project in Science and Technology Acting President T. Galbaatar of the MAS President Lu Yong-Xiang of the CAS In 2003: The Memorandum of Scientific Cooperation between CAS and MAS In 2004: Establishment of Joint Committee on Scientific Cooperation Between CAS-MAS, and the First Meeting of the Committee in Beijing

4 BACKGROUND Meeting of Prof Liu Jiyuan with President of MAS and Director of IG-MAS In August Ulaanbaatar

5 BACKGROUND Second Meeting of the Joint Committee on Scientific Cooperation Between CAS-MAS In Oct 2005, Ulaanbaatar

6 Cooperation Agreement between IGSNRR, IG & IMNU Dec 22, 2005 IGSNRR-CAS, Beijing

7 Important Notes in MOU, Agreement Building a national level GIS for Mongolia Establishing ecosystem monitoring /research stations in Mongolia Joint research programs in the field of environment and sustainable development Personnel exchanges and capacity building Implementation mechanism: setting up an international joint research center

8 Opening Ceremony of JRC 26 Aug, 2006

9 Organizational Structure Coordinating Panel The Directors/President of Each Party Managers of Intern l Affairs Co-Directors Ulaanbaatar Office Hohhot Office Beijing Office RG 1 Envi. Monitoring & GIS RG 2 Land degrad. & ES. RG 3 Human interv. & LUCC RG 4 Climate change & ES RG 5 Modeling soil erosion

10 Prof Dr O.Batkhishig, geographic & soil scientist, got degree from Moscow Uni.Director of soil lab of IG. Involved in natural geography, soil chemistry, land degradation, mapping projects at home and abroad. Lots of intern l publications. Hohhot Office Ulaanbaatar Office Beijing Office Prof Dr Yuhai Bao,graduated from IRSA of CAS in 1999.RS & GIS scientist, director of the key lab for RS & GIS of IM, vice president of the College of Geographic Sciences, IMNU. FOR: RS survey of res.-envi., LUCC, RS & GIS based forest, soil erosion, desertification,developed GIS for land & resources of IM, has wide intern l collaboration, a member of IGBP.Above 30 papers and 2 monographs. Well-known to the people and resources of the MP. Dr Lin Zhen, Asc Porf with IGSNRR of CAS, graduated from AIT in 2003, majoring in socioecology and NRM. Secretary general of res.-eco. committee of CANR. FOR: ecosystem-human interactions & eco-compensation. Ab 30 publications and 1 monography. Good relations with intern l org.

11 GIS & RS Training (Jul-Aug, 2006, IGSNRR)

12 Products using SuperMap GIS

13 1. Climate Changes and Impacts Precipitation of MN

14 在蒙古北部的农业区无霜期增加了 7~12 天, 这对作物生长是非常有利的 2004 Accumulated Temperature 10 of MN

15 10 8 Temperature & Precipitation: Hohhot vs Ulaabaatar 气温 ( ) 降水 )mm) 年份 0 呼和浩特 气温降水年份 气温 ( ) 降水 (mm) -6 Ulaabaatar 气温降水 0

16 Seasonal Change of Climate( /10yr) Winter (12-2) Spring (3-5) Summer (6-8) Autumn (9-11) Hohhot Ulaabaat a

17 Ulaanbaatar Hohhot Impact of climate change on crop yield 面积 (hm , 总产量 ((T 1000) 单产 (T/hm 2 ) 年份 1 面积 (*1000hm2) 产量 (*1000 吨 ) 单产 (t/hm2)

18 万头 年份 牛绵羊山羊 Mongolia Inner Mongolia Impact of climate change on livestock 大牲畜 ( 1000 头 ), 羊 ( 头 ) 降水量 (mm) 年份 大牲畜羊降水

19 2. Herders Perceptions on Climate Changes Basic Infor of Respondents Infor. Variables % Sex M F Age IL 3 PS 23 Education MS 42 HS 28 Uni Family member Sampling Soum Occup. LS Others 98 2

20 Moment in the field

21 Perceptions of Envi Change and Conservation Questions Answers Responses (%) Grassland conditions 1Improving2 Degradation Function of grassland 1fodder2Soil Cons.3 Landscape beauty 4 unknown WTP for conservation 1Y2N Migration for envi. Cons. 1Y2N3NI Policy for envi cons. 1Know2Unknown Policy Options 1Migration2limited LS 3Eco-tourist4Eco-crops 5As it is

22 Environmental and Socio- Economic problems Perceived by Respondents Envi. Soc-Eco.Problems Sand Storm Cultivation Tech. Drought Snowfall Cold Low income Pasture ins/dis,edu Disease of livestock Medical care Index Value (MN) Rank (MN) Rank (IMN) Index Value (IMN) Index=1* P1+0.75* P2+0.5*P *P4 Capital Information Insufficient water Transportation Animal rising tech

23 Eco-compensations for grassland ecosystem protection in Inner Mongolia Standard: 180 RMB/mu for converted arable land for grassland ecosystem conservation. Perceptions: acceptable due to high cost and low benefit from agro-production and livestock rising.

24 3. Drivers of Change Dynamics of population density

25 Population Changes (%) in of Study Area ot her 49% Dor nogovi 2% Dundgovi 2% Sel enge 4% Dar han 4% Tov 3% govi sumber 0. 5% Population to total (%) as of 2004 Ul aaubaat ar 36%

26 Dynamics of livestock density

27 Livestock changes (%) in of Study Area

28 4. LUCC updating and soil sampling 锡林浩特 3. Joint Field Survey in the Great Summer of 2006 Soil sampling & LUCC updating July 2006, Mongolia 乌海 包头 鄂尔多斯 呼和浩特 Sept 2006 Inner Mongolia

29 Memory of Sampling Sites 巴彦淖尔 芨芨草滩地景观 赛因山达 戈壁 典型草甸草原景观 后杭盖省额尔济特 山地草甸 森林景观 库古苏尔省阿尔山图 巴彦淖尔 人工割草场景观 额勒济特 草原化荒漠

30 Scientists from the three Parties Enjoying hard-working 巴彦淖尔塔里亚特哈拉和林卢斯额勒济特赛因山达

31 Future Perspectives

32 Future Perspectives Joint scientific research Mapping LUCC Remote Sensing Image and Landuse data base Key ecosystem services and consumption patterns Soil erosion modeling & land degradation drivers Joint survey on ecosystem-environment-socioeconomic consequences

33 Future Perspectives Joint publications (tentative titles): - Key issues in assessment of changing pastoral ecosystems in the MP: A review - Modeling human s consumption over key ecosystem services in the MP - Land degradation under the influence of global climate changes in the MP - Land use impacts on rangeland productivity - Soil erosion and affecting factors in the transition zone across Outer Mongolia and Inner Mongolia - Perceptions and policy implications of rangeland ecosystem management: a critical assessment from local perspectives.

34 Future Perspectives Exchanges and Capacity Building Training Joint master s & doctoral program Exchange of visiting scholars Conference, seminars, workshops

35 Thank You