Disaster Resilient Cities in Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

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1 Disaster Resilient Cities in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Asmita Tiwari Disaster Risk Management Specialist Middle East and North Africa Region World Bank Workshop on Urban Risk Reduction Damascus, November 4th, 2009

2 Outline 1. Natural Disasters and Climate Change Impacts in MENA 2. Cities at a greater risk 3. What can be done? - Urban Risk Reduction Agenda 4. Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Preparedness in Coastal Cities of North Africa

3 1. Natural Disasters and Climate Change in MNA

4 Natural Disaster Trend in MNA 30 Disaster ( ) Source: EM DAT and WB MENA region number of disasters number of disas 3 per. Mov. Avg disasters) Linear (number number of disasters number of disasters year 3 per. Mov. Avg. (number of disasters) Linear (number of disasters)

5 Natural Disaster Impacts 276 disasters in last 25 years 120 disasters in last 5 years Nearly 100,000 people killed and nearly 1 million rendered homeless in last 25 years Average Annual Economic Loss of 1 Billion USD

6 Climate Change Impacts Temperature rise 1º and 3º C. 0.5 m Sea level rise North Africa: 6 to 25 million people may face coastal flooding Severe impacts Egypt and Tunisia Cities of Alexandria, Rosetta, Damietta, and Port Said

7 Water availability will decrease 20-30% in most of MENA Multi-model average Percent for the change winter and in run-off summer expected precipitation by 2050 (A1B SRES scenario) Punch line: run-off is projected to drop by 20 to 30% in most of MENA by 2050 Source: Milly et al (2005), published in Nature

8 while temperature will increase 2-4 degrees Average of global surface temperature from IPCC AOGCM models, A1B SRES scenario Variation in degrees centigrade Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 Punch line: the average prediction for MENA is of up to 2 degrees increase in the next years, and over 4 degrees for the end of the century (the increase is higher for faster emission scenarios)

9 2. Cities at a higher risk

10 Disaster Risk Hazard Climate Change Human Interventions Environmental Degradation RISK Vulnerability Increasing Urban Poverty Limited Institutional capacity Exposure Rapid Urbanization Ineffective urban management

11 Hazards

12 Location of Urban Areas

13 Exposure: Increasing Urbanization High urbanization rate: average 70% By 2030, population will reach 430 million, of which 280 million will be urban (UN) Coastal cities will grow from 60 million (2000) to 90 million in 2030

14 Increasing Urban Poverty Vulnerability Slum population is increasing- More settlements in hazard prone areas Limited Institutional Capacity Centralized set-up Limited financial, technical, and enforcement capacity Larger challenges of urbanization and water scarcity Local units to manage disasters with limited budget and implementation power Focus on post disaster response

15 High Risk Growing number of Hazards, Growing exposure- Large concentration of population and economic activities, and growing vulnerability

16 2. What can be done? Urban Risk Reduction Agenda

17 Steps for Urban DRM 1. Risk identification: Understand the problem 2. Risk reduction: Do what is possible to reduce losses ex ante 1. Integrating DRM in Master Planning 2. Improving Building codes design and enforcement 3. Disaster Proofing Buildings and infrastructure 3. Risk transfer and financing: For the risk you can t eliminate

18 1. Risk identification and assessment Understanding the cities hazard exposure, the economic and social losses, the probability of loss exceedance, and knowing where the risk is concentrated. Two Level of Assessments- Rapid- stakeholder consultation from $50,000 Detailed - Hazard maps, GIS systems, from $250,000

19 Detailed- PROBABILISTIC RISK MODELING Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Physical Damage Disaster impact Analsyis - Scenario or Stochastic - INFRAESTRUCTURE ECONOMIC SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL

20 Use of Risk Assessment Hazard and risk visualization Indicators for risk management Hazard assessment for infrastructure design Land use planning and zoning Damage scenarios for emergency response Benefit-Cost analysis for retrofitting Immediate damage estimation Analysis of financial exposure

21 2. Risk Reduction Investing in structural and nonstructural measures to mitigate physical damage and loss of life. Need to understand what are the priorities in this area and how they can best be financed and maintained.

22 Components of risk reduction Non-structural: Institutional Arrangement Land use planning Design and construction practices/ building codes Early warning systems Preparedness and response plans Structural measures: Infrastructure upgrading Drainage systems Building retrofitting Sea wall/ dams

23 Non Structural Risk Reduction Example- $80 Million Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project in Bogota, Columbia Institutional Strengthening Developing Institutional Capacity at Regional, National, and Local levels Supporting National Systems Legislation creation and update

24 Risk Identificaton and Landuse Planning- Bogota Socio-economic strata Number of floors Cadastral value 24

25 Risk Preparedness & Response Mass communication campaigns Training masons for building safer Equipment & training for first responders

26 Risk Preparedness & Response - Honduras Community Early Warning Systems Emergency plans Awareness and communication campaigns monitoring forecast alert

27 Structural Risk Reduction -Infrastructure Design and Upgrade

28 Gujarat, India Infrastructure Upgrade $250 Million-Housing/ Infrastructure upgrade Retrofitting of critical public buildings (2,848) Improvement of state road network (870 km) -101 bridges repaired and 28 bridges reconstructed 28

29 Structural - Drainage Improvements Taiz Municipal Development and Flood Protection Project, Sana a Saylah project, Yemen

30 Structural Risk Reduction - RETROFFITING

31 BEFORE Bogota School Retrofitting Program AFTER Schools Retrofitted : 201 Total Budget: $200 Million

32 3. Risk Financing/Transfer Mostly at national level Once the financial capacity to absorb catastrophic events is understood, need to identify the most suitable financial instruments to address any funding gaps Self-insurance, private sector insurance, catastrophe bonds, contingency financing, safety nets, calamity funds, microinsurance, informal arrangements, etc.

33 Some Issues to Consider Coordination challenge: disaster touch upon every single sector of development Centralization vs. decentralization: need to get the balance right Public education and awareness is key: memories fade quickly Role of each stakeholder: natl and local govts; private sector; scientific community; local communities we all have a responsibility

34 WB MNA URBAN RISK REDUCTION ACTIVITIES Integrate hazard risk management in city development plans in Sana a, Tripoli and Cairo (proposed) Application of the rapid risk assessment tool, City Primer, in Amman, Damascus, Sana a, Tripoli and Alexandria (Phase I) to be followed by detailed risk modeling and assessments, preparedness action plans and infrastructure investments plans Coastal Cities of North Africa Study Analyze and document the findings from the above in a regional urban risk reduction strategy

35 Thanks You!