1) Draw a diagram of the Greenhouse Effect with as much detail as you can.

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "1) Draw a diagram of the Greenhouse Effect with as much detail as you can."

Transcription

1 As you re coming in: 1) Draw a diagram of the Greenhouse Effect with as much detail as you can. (Then hang them up on the back wall) 2) Write down any words or ideas you need or would like me to define and put them in the hat up front. We ll get to at least a few today.

2 What we are talking about today: Review: causes of climate change Climate Models Carbon Cycle Sources/Sinks Pools Ecological Impacts of Climate Change

3 Let s Review: Greenhouse Gases: From most influential to least: CO 2, CH 4 (Methane), N 2 O (Nitrous Oxide) CO2 alone accounts for over 60% of warming Natural Fluctuations in GHG s and surface temperature: Albedo reflectivity of a surface (high = snow, low=water) Volcanic Activity Milankovitch Cycles Changes in the sun s radiation on Earth Teleconnections Global Conveyers (Transferors of heat around the globe) El Nino/ La Nina Thermohaline Circulation

4 Let s Review: Feedbacks: Stock Market Positive Feedback Cycles: Promote the extreme conditions Ex. Warming -> Ice Melts -> Albedo Decreases -> Warming -> Ice Melts -> Ect. Negative Feedback Cycles: Promote the moderate (equilibrium) condition. Maintains homeostasis. Ex. CO2 Rises -> Increased Plant Growth -> Increased Draw-down of CO2 -> CO2 Falls

5 Future Climate Change (IPCC 2014) IPCC 2014 defines emissions ranges to predict the range of possible outcomes. - What determines the scenario we follow most closely?

6 Future Climate Change (IPCC 2014) Highlights (or lowlights) RCP degrees of warming by 2100 Summer sea ice gone by 2080 RCP degrees of warming by 2100 Some sea ice will persist through RCP 2.6 Temps will hold steady after 2030 and remain only 0 1 degree higher by 2100

7 What is a model? A model is a mathematical way to represent a system that attempts to capture its behavior or patterns. Models are also used to understand the importance of different parts of a system. ~ In order to model a system, you have to know its components and their relevant contributions. Models are made and tested with real data

8 What is a model? It s a way of predicting information based on existing patterns or information. See if you can guess what comes next: See if you can guess what came before: See if you can figure out what comes next: J F M _A

9 A few more examples What do you think comes next?: How did you come to your prediction? Can we know for sure what those blanks will be?

10 Climate models are slightly more complicated 1) Train your model using a subset of observed data 2) Choose the things that you think can contribute to changes in temperature: - Let s think of a few: Temperature depends on: Tree Cover CO 2 Concentration Elevation Solar Radiation

11 Illustration of the EdGCM Climate Model

12 How climate models are structured:

13 How climate models are structured:

14 Then apply that model to geographic divisions of the planet. The result is this:

15

16

17 Future Climate Change Depends on (1) the emissions scenario / trajectory we follow and (2) how efficient the Earth is in sequestering [absorbing] carbon from the atmosphere. Both (1) and (2) have a lot of uncertainty.

18 Current State of the Atmosphere

19 Atmospheric CO 2 Preindustrial Level of CO2: ppm (parts per million) A combination of emissions (sources) and reductions (sinks) Only about 50% of emissions end up in the atmosphere Where does the rest go?

20 Sources and Sinks Sources: Things that generate CO2 Sinks: Things that absorb CO2 Pools: Things that hold onto or store carbon Can something be both a source and a sink? Can you think of an example?

21 Sources: Pools/Sinks:

22 *The 2013 carbon dioxide emissions (fossil fuel and cement production only) breakdown is: Coal (43%) Oil (33%) Gas (18%) Cement (5.5%) Gas flaring (0.6%).

23 The Results: When sources are higher then sinks, the atmospheric CO2 concentration rises and temperatures go up.

24 Carbon Cycle Investigation tion.html

25 Current Events Break Take a 20 minute break : be back at Talk in groups of 4 about the articles you read. Give a brief summary of the topic or event (30 Second Version) Discuss the questions below: What are the relevant issues or policies involved in the story? If the story has a scientific focus, how does it relate to issues of policy or social justice? Alternatively, if the story is a piece on social justice, what are the relevant policies or scientific findings? Do the scientific findings or policies have implications beyond this particular story?

26 Otters and Climate Change video Hey! We re starting in a minute. You re not going to want to miss this.

27 Ecological Responses to Climate Change Some Definitions Community: The assemblage of organisms in a given environment. (Ex. Intertidal communities include all the mussels, limpets, crabs, fish and anemones that inhabit the intertidal zone) Ecosystem: An The abiotic (non-living) factors and the communities that interact with them. (Ex. The intertidal organisms along with the saltwater, freshwater, rocks and currents that impact them.)

28 Migration Climate Envelopes Species are expected to move Poleward and Upward in order to stay within their optimal climatic range. In N.A. this means an expansion northward and a reduction in suitable habitat on the southern edge of their range.

29 Future Climate Predictions for VT Higher Emissions: Continued rate of CO 2 increase through the end of the century. Lower Emissions: Reduced rates of CO 2 input into the atmosphere beginning now.

30 Bio-Climatic Models dynamically link climate models to species requirements

31 Forest Migration

32 Forest Migration

33 Forest Migration

34 Forest Migration

35 Forest Migration

36

37 Migration Novel and Extinct Climates Species are expected to move Poleward and Upward in order to stay within their optimal climatic range. What about mountain top species? Precipitation and temperature combinations may not always migrate in synch. Some climatic conditions may become extinct and new ones may arise. What about additional abiotic requirements?

38 Phenology The timing of seasonal changes in plants and animals Plants / Pollinators: Pollinators may be responding to changes in spring temperatures while plants are responding to the changes in sunlight. Freeze/ Thaw Cycles Increasing frequency of midwinter thaws can harm tree growth. Grazers and Food Availability Migration and plant growth can become out of synch in some grazing communities.

39 Trophic Interactions When organisms low on the food chain are negatively impacted by climate change, organisms higher up feel the effects too. Ocean acidification is beginning to inhibit shell growth of some plankton. A collapse in plankton populations would echo up the food chain.

40 Discussion Question: Should humans engage in ASSISTED MIGRATION to help those species that won t be able to migrate fast enough to keep up with the current or expected rates of climate change?

41 Seven Ways to Reduce Carbon Video

42 E.U. USA Russia India Emissions by Country Order these countries (or organizations) by percent of total global GHG emissions in 2008 See if you can guess their contributions to global emissions China

43 China: 23% USA: 19% E.U. : 13% Emissions by Country Order these countries (or organizations) by percent of total global GHG emissions in 2008 India: 6% Russia: 6%

44 Transportation Agriculture & Forestry Commercial and Residential Electricity Production Global GHG Emissions by Sector Order the sources of GHG emissions by sector from most to least See if you can guess the percentage that each one contributes to total emissions Other Industries

45 Agriculture & Forestry: 31% Electricity Production : 26% Other Industries: 19% Global GHG Emissions by Sector Order the sources of GHG emissions by sector from most to least Transportation: 13% Commercial and Residential : 8% See if you can guess the percentage that each one contributes to total emissions

46 Transportation Global GHG Emissions by Sector Agriculture & Forestry Commercial and Residential Electricity Production Order the sources of GHG emissions by sector from most to least See if you can guess the percentage that each one contributes to total emissions Other Industries

47 Agriculture & Forestry: 31% Electricity Production : 26% Other Industries: 19% Global GHG Emissions by Sector Order the sources of GHG emissions by sector from most to least Transportation: 13% Commercial and Residential : 8% See if you can guess the percentage that each one contributes to total emissions

48 Global Emissions Distribution 2010

49 CH 4 Methane US GHG Emissions N 2 O Nitrous Oxide CO 2 Carbon Dioxide On your table order your cards from highest percentage of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions to least Try to guess the percentages Fluorinated Compounds

50 CO 2 : 82% US GHG Emissions CH 4 : 10% N 2 O : 5% On your table order your cards from highest percentage of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions to least F-Gases : 3%

51 Transportation US GHG Emissions by Sector Agriculture Commercial and Residential Electricity Production Order the sources of US GHG emissions by sector from most to least See if you can guess the percentage that each one contributes to total US emissions Other Industries

52 Electricity Production: 31% US GHG Emissions by Sector Transportation: 27% Other Industries: 21% Commercial and Residential 12% Order the sources of US GHG emissions by sector from most to least See if you can guess the percentage that each one contributes to total US emissions Agriculture: 9%

53 Landfills US Sources of Methane Coal Mining Agriculture Order the sources of methane within the US from highest to lowest percentage. Oil and Gas Systems Wastewater Treatment See if you can guess the approximate percentage that each contributes to total US methane emissions

54 Landfills: 35.8 % US Sources of Methane Agriculture: 30.9% Oil and Gas Systems: 21.3% Order the sources of methane within the US from highest to lowest percentage. Coal Mining: 11.5% Wastewater Treatment: 0.5% See if you can guess the approximate percentage that each contributes to total US methane emissions