Health Impact Assessment (HIA) module LBG/LB 2

Transcription

1 Future work 2005 To test RAINS-NL and apply to CAFE-Baseline Health Impact Module: finalize and link to RAINS-NL (with Institute for Environmental Studies (VUA-IvM) Finalize feasibility study for the design of a RAINS-NL cost effectiveness module (with Institute for Environmental Studies, VUA-IvM 2005/2006 Apply RAINS-NL in support of NEC review/revision Review/revision UNECE-CLRTAP Gothenburg protocol Design Post-module for cost-effectiveness analysis (RAINS-Europa results are used in an ex-post CBA) GAINS-NL; Link up with progress in the development and application of GAINS- Europe (Options for scenario analysis of Dutch Energy structure) Implement progress impact assessment methodologies under CLRTAP/EC. LBG/LB 1

2 Health Impact Assessment (HIA) module LBG/LB 2

3 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies LBG/LB 3

4 LBG/LB 4

5 Goals of HIA morbidity study To build a (full) HIA morbidity/daly tool for PM and ozone To use this tool in a feasibility study using Dutch data (and compare it with HIA on mortality/daly) To study the potential for a more local and regional (pan- European) HIA for morbidity (to serve RIVM, RAINS, and CAFE) # $ %&'(! " # '' ) * '+, % -. LBG/LB 5

6 Assessment framework RAINS-NL Air quality data (PM 10, PM 2.5, Ozone) Population data Demographic data Baseline risks Relative risk functions for specific morbidity health endpoints Morbidity impacts Severity weight factors and duration DALY Source: Dorland (VUA-IvM); van Bree (MNP-LOK) LBG/LB 6

7 Cost-effectiveness analysis module LBG/LB 7

8 Relation between CBA and other linking to the CAFE programme (Source: AEA Technology Environment, December 2004) Scenario developm ent and target setting Activities specific to C AFE EM EP M odelling of pollutant concentration across Europe on 50 x 50 km grid O ther m odels TREM O VE PR IM ES Etc. RAINS m odel Processing of pollutant data Assessm ent vs. targets, e.g. critical loads exceedence, m ortality Cost analysis CBA Q uantification of im pacts Health, crops, m aterials, social and m acroeconom ic effects, etc. M onetisation of im pacts W here possible Com parison of costs and benefits Extended C BA Related activities EC DG Research Program m es UNECE W orking G roups under Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) W HO Europe com m entary on air pollution im pacts LBG/LB 8

9 Feasibility study on RAINS-NL cost effectiveness module (Source: VUA-Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken, 2004) Emission reduction scenario RAINS- NL Avoided impacts Co-emission reduction CBA Costs Monetised benefits MCA Costs Monetised benefits Non-monetised benefits AGE modelling Indirect economic effects Costs Monetised benefits?? Second order effects on emissions. Cross-over LBG/LB 9

10 GAINS-NL LBG/LB 10

11 A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem extended towards radiative forcing SO 2 NO x NH 3 VOC Primary PM+BC Acidification Eutrophication Ground-level ozone CH 4 CO 2 + GHGs Health impacts via sec. aerosols Radiative forcing via aerosols via OH LBG/LB 11 Source: IIASA

12 Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies LBG/LB 12

13 Eutrophication and Carbon sequestration: unraveling the dynamics of a trade-off issue CO2 N dep S dep [O3] Temperature / Biomass Soil C/N A next generation of multiple-source Multiple-impact impact assessment LBG/LB 13

14 Thank you for your participation for Today s slides on RAINS on CLRTAP e/index.htm on the CAFE Programme on European critical load work LBG/LB 14