Update on USEPA Actions to address Climate Change. Colleen McKaughan Associate Director, Air Division US EPA Region IX June 10, 2010

Transcription

1 Update on USEPA Actions to address Climate Change Colleen McKaughan Associate Director, Air Division US EPA Region IX June 10,

2 Select Federal GHG Regulations Tailoring Rule & Light Duty Vehicle Standards 2010 Supreme Court Decision 2007 GHG Reporting Rule 2010 Endangerment Finding

3 Supreme Court Decision GHGs are air pollutants covered under the Clean Air Act Determine if GHGs from new motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution, which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare Supreme Court Decision 2007 or whether the science is too uncertain to make a reasoned decision 3

4 Endangerment Finding Actually two distinct findings: (i) GHGs threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations (ii) emissions from motor vehicles contribute to greenhouse gas pollution These findings do not themselves impose any requirements on industry or other entities Endangerment Finding

5 GHG Reporting Rule Generally applies to: suppliers of fossil fuels and industrial GHGs Manufacturers of vehicles and engines Facilities that emit 25,000 metric tons per year Additional source categories being added in 2010 Data collection began Jan. 1, 2010 First report due March 31, 2011 GHG Reporting Rule

6 Light Duty Vehicle GHG Standards Applies to model years Tailoring Rule & Light Duty Vehicle Standards 2010 Joint rulemaking between DOT and EP Encompasses 60% US transportation emissions First EPA regulation of GHGs Current CAFE Standards DOT 2016 CAFE Standards EPA 2016 Standards Approximate EPA MPG Equivalent Passenger car 27.5 MPG 39.5 MPG 225 gco2/mile Light-duty Truck 23.1 MPG 29.8 MPG 298 gco2/mile Combined Car & Truck 250 gco2/mile 35.5 MPG 6

7 Tailoring Rule Tailoring Rule & Light Duty Vehicle Standards 2010 Effective January 2, 2011 Tailors the requirements to focus PSD and title V permit requirements on the largest emitting facilities Covers nearly 70% of US GHG emissions from stationary sources (e.g., refineries, power plants, cement plants) 7

8 Pollutants Covered Sets thresholds for GHG emissions, addressing emissions from six well-mixed GHGs: Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) The aggregate sum of these six GHGs is the identified air pollutant in EPA s Light-Duty Vehicle Rule, and the associated Endangerment Finding To determine applicability, a source's GHG emissions are calculated as the sum of the six gases on a CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 e) basis and compared against the relevant threshold 8

9 Permitting Steps under the Tailoring Rule Step 1: Source already subject to PSD anyway (tpy CO 2 e) New source: NA Modification: 75,000 Step 2: Sources already subject to PSD (tpy CO 2 e) New source: 100,000 Modification: 75,000 Step 3: Implementation of potential additional phasein and streamlining options 5-year study: To examine GHG permitting for smaller sources Study Complete Implementation of rule based on 5-year study

10 Region 9 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards Review Process and Status PAG Air Quality Forum Colleen McKaughan, U.S. EPA June 10, 2010

11 NAAQS Review Process Review each standard every 5 years Components Integrated science assessment Risk and exposure assessments Policy assessment Possible outcomes Revision Revocation Reaffirmation 11

12 Current Schedule for Ongoing NAAQS Reviews POLLUTANT MILESTONE NO 2 Primary SO 2 Primary Ozone Reconsideration CO PM NO 2 /SO 2 Secondary Lead NPR Jun 26, 2009 Nov 16, 2009 Jan 6, 2010 Oct 28, 2010 Feb 2011 July 12, 2011 Nov 2013 NFR Jan 22, 2010 Jun 2, 2010 Aug 31, 2010 May 13, 2011 Oct 2011 Mar 20, 2012 Sept 2014 NOTE: Underlined dates indicate court-ordered or settlement agreement deadlines Next Ozone Review: Proposal in May 2013 and Final in Feb

13 Ozone NAAQS ppm 8-hour (effectively 0.084) ppm 8-hour Litigated, under reconsideration 2010 reconsidered standard Proposed rule - January 6, ppm 8-hr primary 7 15 ppm-hours secondary W126 weighting method protects vegetation Final rule to be signed August 31, NAAQS Review Initiated Oct 2008, after last review Final expected Feb

14 weight W126 Proposed Secondary Standard Steps in calculating W126 value for a particular site: 1. Measure hourly ozone (O 3 ) concentrations for each hour within the 12 hour daylight period (8am-8pm). 2. Assign a weight to each hourly value based on concentration: lower concentrations receive less weight than higher concentrations. 3. Sum the 12 weighted hourly values to calculate a daily W126 value. 4. Repeat steps 1-3 for each day within the ozone season and then sum the daily values to calculate the monthly W126 value. 5. Identify the consecutive 3-month period whose monthly W126 values produce the highest total. This total becomes the seasonal W126 for this site. 6. Average three years of maximum W126 values and compare to standard. Example of weighting over 5-hour period: Hourly O 3 (ppm) Weight W126 (ppm-hrs) SUM: 0.20 Daily value = Sum of values over 12 daylight hours

15 Counties With Monitors Violating the March 2008 Ground-Level Ozone Standards parts per million (Based on Air Quality Data) > ppm 322 of monitored counties violate the standard Notes: 1. Counties with at least one monitor with complete data for To determine compliance with the March 2008 ozone standards, the 3-year average is truncated to three decimal places. > ppm 15

16 Counties With Monitors Violating Proposed Primary 8-hour Groundlevel Ozone Standards of parts per million (Based on Air Quality Data) EPA will not designate areas as nonattainment on these data, but likely on data which are expected to show improved air quality. 515 counties violate ppm 93 additional counties violate ppm for a total of additional counties violate ppm for a total of 650 Notes: 1. No monitored counties outside the continental U.S. violate. 2. EPA is proposing to determine compliance with a revised primary ozone standard by rounding the 3-year average to three decimal places. > ppm > ppm > ppm 16

17 Counties With Monitors Violating Proposed Secondary Seasonal Ground-Level Ozone Standards of 7 15 parts per million-hours (Based on Air Quality Data) EPA will not designate areas as nonattainment on these data, but likely on data which are expected to show improved air quality. 196 > 15 counties ppm-hours violate 15 ppm-hours 383 > 7 additional ppm-hours counties violate 7 ppm- > 15 ppm-hours hours for a total of 579 No monitored counties outside the continental U.S. violate. > 7 ppm-hours > 15 ppm-hours 17

18 Region 9 NAAQS Implementation NAAQS Promulgation EPA Designations Attainment Demo/ RFP/ RACT SIPs EPA Action 110(a) Infrastructure SIP RFP Reasonable Further Progress RACT Reasonably Available Control Technology 18

19 Pollutant NAAQS Promulgation Anticipated NAAQS Implementation Milestones Revised May 2010 Designations Effective (approximate) 110(a) SIPs (3 yrs after NAAQS promulgation) Attainment Demonstrations Max Attainment Date PM 2.5 (2006) Sept 2006 Dec 2009 Sept 2009 Dec 2012 Dec 2014/2019 Pb Oct 2008 Nov 2010/2011 (extra time for new monitors) Oct 2011 June 2012/2013 Nov 2015/2016 NO 2 (primary) Jan 2010 Feb 2012 (extra time for new monitors) Jan 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2017 SO 2 (primary) June 2010 July 2012 June 2013 Jan 2014 July 2017 Ozone Aug 2010 Aug 2011 (primary only?) Aug 2013 Dec 2013 Dec Dec 2031 CO May 2011 June 2013 May 2014 June 2015 May 2018 PM 2.5 (2011) NO 2 /SO 2 Secondary July 2011 Aug 2013 July 2014 Aug 2016 March 2012 April 2014 March 2015 Oct 2015 Aug 2018/2023 As Expeditious As Practicable 19

20 Region 9 Normal Designations Process NAAQS Promulgation 1 year State Recommendations Areas recommended as attaining or not attaining the NAAQS 1 year * 120-Day Letter to Governor Clean Air Act requires EPA to notify state if we intend to modify recommendation EPA Designation Final 120 days allows State to provide further information * EPA may take up to an additional year if there is insufficient information. 20

21 Proposed Ozone Schedule 1 o Accelerated 2 o 2-Year NAAQS Proposal Jan 6, 2010 NAAQS Final Aug 31, 2010 State recommendations Jan 7, 2011 Aug 31, day letters Mar 11, 2011 May 3, 2012 Designations July 11, 2011 Aug 31, 2012 Published July 31, 2011 Sep 15, 2012 Effective Aug 31, 2011 Oct 2012 SIPs due Dec 31, 2013 Oct 2015? 1 o - primary health-based NAAQS, 2 o - secondary welfare-based NAAQS 21

22 Region 9 What Areas Must Be Nonattainment? Violating and nearby contributing areas CAA Section 107 We start with a violating federal reference method monitor (includes special purpose monitors) Presumptive boundary background 1990 Act set boundary as Census C/MSAs for CO and O3 Serious, Severe, Extreme Office of Management and Budget defines urban areas, using degree of economic interconnection, traffic patterns EPA provides guidance to states on boundary recommendations C/MSA Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area, Metropolitan Statistical Area 22

23 Region 9 Draft Proposal Status Upon NAAQS revisions, EPA develops implementation rules to address: Classifications, SIP/attainment deadlines, etc. For proposed 2010 ozone NAAQS, EPA drafted implementation rule proposal Discussed key concepts with stakeholders NACAA, NACAA subgroup, enviros, industry Proposal August 2010, at time of final NAAQS Final Rule Early

24 Region 9 EPA May Propose Revoking 1997 ozone NAAQS Would require transition elements and simplify conformity Take comment on retaining 1997 Attainment dates at end of calendar year e.g., Moderate attainment December 31, 2017, rather than August 31, 2017 Attainment demonstrations and Reasonable Further Progress plans due Dec 2013 Per agreement on NAAQS litigation Aligning RACT, EI SIP due dates 24

25 Region 9 Classification Options OPTION 1: Percent-Above-Standard Same method as 1997 NAAQS classifications Set thresholds at the same percent above standard as CAA required for 1-hour ozone Marginal is up to 15% above std OPTION 2A: Ratio of Threshold to Range Use South Coast ( is ppm) as extreme Option 2B: Modified Ratio of Threshold to Range Use Bakersfield ( is ppm) as extreme 25

26 Region 9 Classification Comparisons Percent (Number) of Areas in Each Class at ppm NAAQS (186 hypothetical areas) Marginal Percent-above Standard (Option 1) Ratio of Threshold (Option 2A - extreme at ppm) Modified Ratio of Threshold (Option 2B - extreme at ppm) 79% (147 out of 186) 49% (92) 42% (79) Moderate 18% (34) 37% (68) 32% (60) Serious 2% (3) 8% (15) 13% (24) Severe-15 <1% (1) 3% (6) 3% (6) Severe-17 <1% (1) 2% (4) 8% (15) Extreme 0 <1% (1) 1% (2) Marginal Areas Success Rate <50 >50 >50 26

27 Region 9 Implementing Separate Secondary NAAQS Specific SIP and attainment requirements will apply Considering Subpart 1 vs. Subpart 2 Subpart 2 mandatory provisions Subpart 1 greater flexibility Environmental groups suggest EPA establish attainment dates, mandatory controls 27