Merging space, time, chemistry and environmental media: Monitoring challenges

Transcription

1 Merging space, time, chemistry and environmental media: Monitoring challenges WRAP Monitoring Workshop Chandler, Arizona May 15, 2008 Rich Scheffe, EPA-OAR

2 Acknowledgments Everyone WRAP-RPO s National Level Impact on Environmental Assessments Gap filling IMPROVE samplers in center of CONUS VIEWS and related TSS NH3 emissions modeling Accelerating SOA treatment in CMAQ

3 simply, Arithmetic injustice Greater than 95% of air pollutant mass is located above 100m, yet we (air program community) focus 95 % of our characterization on the bottom 10 meters {compromises both predictive and current characterization phenomena}

4 Topics Integration drivers Themes from 2004 NAS study Multiple-pollutant, - media; accountability Trend of lowed high volume air quality standards (O3, PM) Relative economic growth distribution globally Convergence of non-cancer causing health effect mechanisms across pollutants Increasing technology Decreasing (relative) measurement resources Climate-AQ interactions Information technology and data integration systems Monitoring thoughts

5 Obstacles to improved observation operations and design Decaying(?) infrastructure Reliance on compliance type measurements and related FRM/FEMs Lack of market incentives Inadequate technology transfer from research to operations

6 Emerging Challenges for Air Policy Developing Multiple pollutant integrated management strategies Assessing and Protecting Ecosystem Health Multiple spatial scales of interest Intercontinental and Cross-Border Transport Maintaining AQM System Efficiency in the face of Changing Climate Ongoing Assessments and feedbacks of program progress (accountability)

7 Air Toxics History of emissions standards setting processes General characterization of risk

8 Nexus of ozone, PM 2.5 (2003-5) and air toxics (NATA 1999). High Risk Counties often Coincide with Locations where Criteria Pollutant Issues are Significant - Draft

9 Multimedia Assessments Start with NAPAP (Acid rain, Title 4) Interest waning as ozone, then PM2.5 emerged as dominant air quality interests starting in the late 1980 s 2004 NAS AQ Report driving EPA, AQ community Reorganization Resource allocations New NARSTO MP-MM-ACC assessment NASA participation requested

10 Integration across pollutants and media: tradeoffs and optimum strategies? Primary Sources SVOC VOC (HAPs) CO NO SO 2 Hg HAP metals OH RO 2 HO 2 O3 hν OH hν NO 2 OH O3 OH OH, O3 Hg o,hg 2 gases HNO 3 NH 3 H 2 SO 4 particles Organic PM Nitrate PM Sulfate PM Chemical Deposition

11 ACCOUNTABILITY

12 Accountability and Indicators Pipeline Source emissions Direct NO, SO2, VOC, CO, metals, Increasing influence in confounding factors and perceived value to public policy Ambient precursors and intermediates NO, NOy, CO, VOC, SO2, metals, radicals, peroxides Ambient target species O3, PM, HAPs Secondary and deposition loads Visibility, acidification, eutrophication, metals Exposures Inhalation, digestion Health effects Asthma, cardio-pulmonary, Cancer, death Ecosystem + effects Defoliation, Visibility biodiversity, Metals concentration Perceived (measured?) Life quality Increasing confidence In characterization Feedback/correction

13 Largest decline in ozone occurs in and downwind of EGU NOx emissions reductions ( ) (analysis constrained by absence ambient NOx data) EGU NOx Tons Reduced Decline Decrease in from 2002 Seasonal to 2004 (Adjusted Data) Average 8-Hour Daily Maximum Ozone Met. Adj. Tons Reduction -33, ,000 28,000-73,000 74, ,000 Decrease in ppb -3 D -5 D < -3-8 D < -5 D < ,000 The major EGU NOx emissions reductions occurs after 2002 (mostly NOx SIP Call) Average rate of decline in ozone between 1997 and 2002 is 1.1%/year. Average rate of decline in ozone between 2002 and 2004 is 3.1%/year.

14 GOME Satellite NO 2 Trends ( ) Richter et al., 2005

15 Courtesy NOAA, Kim et al.

16 Satellites provide best source of ambient NO 2 : Accountability and Trends Figure 20. Left - superimposed Eastern U.S. emission and combined GOME and SCIAMACHY NO trends (Kim et al., 2006); right - GOME NO2 trends from (after Richter, 2005). Clear evidence of reductions in midwest U.S. and European NOx emissions, and increased NOx generated in Eastern Asia. Figure OMI NO2 column images aggregated for all Fridays (left) and Sundays (right) indicating weekend/weekday patterns associated with reduced Sunday emissions (source, Husar).

17 MANAGING MULTIPLE SPATIAL SCALES

18 Evolutional change in National Air Pollution Management Initial CAA Biogenics Regional science 8-hr ozone PM 2.5 (annual driver) Regional Rules New PM Standards Daily/annual drivers Climate-AQ Hemispherical Transport 2050 Local/urban Regional Hemispheric

19 Hemispheric > 1000 km Regional > 200km Urban km Local< 5 km metals UFs, Source Specific PM, gases PAN Primary PM 2.5 HNO3 O3 O3 Hg HAPs VOC VOCs NOx Hg Secondary PM 2.5 methane CHC CO2 CO Secondary PM 2.5 Hg PM 2.5 dust POPs Primary OC (fires) PAN

20 International transport/climate interactions Scale: global/regional April 2001 Dust Transport Event Observed from TOMS April 9/8 April 10/9 April 11/10 April 12/11 April 13/12 April 14/13

21 2006 Dust Transport Event Observed from CALIPSO Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug 22 5 km Aug 25 Aug 28 3 km Aug 23 David Winker

22 New findings on roadway pollution High exposure to ultrafine particles, CO, other pollution near roadway Increased risk near and on roadways Relative Particle Number, Mass, Black Carbon, CO Concentration near a major LA freeway

23 Example: New Haven, CT 70% of block group centroids are within 500m from a major road >10,000 ADT

24 Factors affecting a health outcome Physical State Mental State outcome Pollution dose Genetic Disposition Diet

25 Moving toward

26 Multi-Pollutant Analytical Framework Future = National Air Pollutant Assessment Modeling Platform Legend In Place Emissions Inventory Control Strategies Air Quality Modeling Ambient Data Requires development Regional Local Spatial Surfaces e.g., PHASE Criteria Pollutants Exposure/Risk Analysis Ecosystems Exposure/Risk Analysis Air Toxics Exposure/Risk Analysis Benefits Assessment Benefits Assessment Benefits Assessment

27 Maximizing space/time/composition through systems integration Integration of systems to improve air quality models for forecast Current and Retrospective assessments Global-Regional Air Quality Connections Climate-AQ connections Land AQ Monitors Total column depth (through Satellites) AQ model results Vertical Profiles Integrated Observation- Modeling Optimized air chemistry Characterizations Air management Exposure/Health accountability ecosystems

28 Simple integration of of Model outputs and observations; Eastern U.S.fused PM2.5 surface

29 Parallel Information Technology solutions to enable integrated assessments

30 Mercury Deposition From All Sources: 2001 Mercury a multiple scale, multiple media Assessment challenge Mercury Deposition from US Power Plants: 2001 Mercury Deposition from US Power Plants: 2020 with CAIR & CAMR

31 Questions How can efficiencies across observation networks be enabled? What are reasonable roles of space-based and ground based agencies? How can GEOSS and related organizing structures help? How do we commit to the pain of integration?... harmonization beyond QA/QC..(across and within systems and time trends) What drives observation design? And other top-down, bottom-up conundrums

32 Fine Particle Reductions Work 1.3 Steubenville S Rate Ratio St. Louis L Watertown H T W Topeka P T Portage L W Kingston H S PM pollution (including sulfates) declines accompanied by reduced mortality risk PM 2.5 µg/m 3 ayden et al (2006). Effect of Reduction in Fine Particulate Air Pollution and on Mortality: A extended follow-up in of the Harvard Six Cities Adult Cohort

33 relatively straightforward emissions strategy SO 2 Million Tons 10 NO x Projected, w/ CAIR 5 0 Source: EPA

34 Health Effects: Symmetries in atmospheric and cellular level chemistries Nighttime N2O5 Chemistry O3 PAN N2O5 HONO HOOH hv hv hv O 1 D H O 2 O 3 P NO hv NO3 HNO3 NO2 NH4NO3 OH NH3 FP VOC CO SOx org aer Radical Pool HO2 ; RO2 Carbonyls hv H2SO4 O 2 H + Nox2 p22 O -. 2 rac p47 p67 NADP + NADPH NADPH + H + FAD e - OC L-Arg + O 2. NO FMN CaM L-Arg Heme Fe L-Arg BH 4 CaM FMN FAD Heme Zn BH 4 Fe NH 2 Source Secondary Sink SOx Clouds/Aqueous HOOC O 2 L-Arg Heme Fe 2+ FMN FAD e - ONOO - Source, Harrison, 2006 O -. 2 Atmospheric Pathways H 2 N NH 2 Source, Harrison, 2006 Reactive Oxidant Cell Chemistry Processes Hypothesized effect

35 Consequences of new standards

36 New PM NAAQS 2006 Annual NAAQS 15 ug/m3 24 hour 98 th percentile NAAQS 35 µg/m3 From 65 µ g/m3 Implications.new definition for anomalous events Increased relevance of remote sensing information PM10 remains Requirements for PM monitoring focus on urban coarse PM resuspended by heavy traffic, industrial sources, and construction excludes rural dust uncontaminated by urban, industrial sources (excludes agriculture, mining, wind blown dust

37 Major Ozone Standard changes 1 hour to 8 hour standard (late 1990 s) Transition from urban to regional assessments Recent 8 hour 80 (84) ppb to 75ppb Raises importance of background ozone, transport and climate-aq interactions

38 Ozone revitalization after the PM onslaught Research $ exploded for PM in the late 90 s s What happened to fundamental oxidant research?

39 We need to re-respect the Center of the Environmental Assessment Universe. OH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation : One VOC + OH --- > Orgainic PM Atmosphere PM2.5 One- SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH ---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3] Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM) Visibilit y. OH Ozon e NOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O3 Water Qualit y NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification, Eutrophication) Air Toxics Acid Rain SO2 + OH ---> OH <---> Air Toxics (POPs, Hg, etc.) H2SO4 NO2 + OH ---> HNO3 C. Jang

40 Monitoring

41

42 There is a wealth of measurements, but is it aligned for current drivers?

43 Deposition and surface water chemistry Networks

44 Scarcity of routine soil and surface water/chemistry

45 Consider importance of meteorological systems e.g., Solar radiation networks Aeronet sun photometers UV networks

46 Air quality focused radar profilers

47 Comments on how satellite data really support air program management ordered attempt Direct incorporation into emissions inventory process 2002 NEI and 2005 fire components utilize satellite data Inverse modeling, top-down construction of emissions Generally for hemispheric scale applications Accountability (e.g., NOx EGU reductions) Constraining air quality model evaluation (and EIs) by providing consistent vertical column information Direct Boundary condition Observations and conceptual modeling of transport events Spatial gap filling Most attractive marketing item

48 Recommendations (integration) In addition to speciated dry Hg

49 Sequencing Model Evaluation Steps PBL development; Vertical/horizontal Mixing; Temperature radiation, water Emissions evaluation and/or modification Conserved species and precursor evaluation Intermediate and fast reacting species Transformed species Wet and dry deposition

50 Recommendation 1: Support required deployment of 75 surface stations designed to constrain regional model evaluation, link to satellites, service accountability and epidemiological studies (not compliance sites) NCore network: 75 Level 2 sites of collocated trace gases and aerosol components in representative mix of urban and regional areas included in 12/06 PM NAAQS revision NCore Measurements Level 2: ~ 75 Multipollutant (MP) Sites, Core Species Plus Leveraging From PAMS, Speciation Program, Air Toxics L1 L2 Level 3 Minimum Core Level 2 Measurements Continuous NO,NOy,SO2,CO, PM2.5, PM10/PMc,O 3, Meteorology (T,RH,WS,WD); Integrated PM2.5 FRM, HNO3, NH3, Level Master Sites Comprehensive Measurements, Advance Methods Serving Science and Technology Transfer Needs Level 3: Minimum Single Pollutant Sites (e.g.> 500 sites each for O3 and PM2.5 and related spatial Mapping Support

51 Recommendation 2: Improve surface based nitrogen characterizations Proposed NCore NOy operational level issues remain? True routine low cost NO 2 instruments not available ambient NH 3

52 Recommendation 3: VOCs - Ground based complement for satellite HCHO and possibly glyoxal HCHO only provided in urban high ozone locations (dating back to 1990 CAAA) No routine program for regionally representative HCHO (key surrogate for biogenic isoprene emissions, important diagnostic species for model evaluation) Glyoxal recent importance of role in SOA formation and leveraging opportunity with total column values

53 Recommendation 4: Routinely available vertical air chemistry Adoption of a North American complement to MOZAIC/CARIBE (domestic flights) Exploration through TAMDAR

54 Recommendation 5: Sustaining and enhancing sentinel fixed station sites for LR transport and background characterization support (source, HTAP interim report) Å Alert Å Zeppelin Mt. Å Existing sites ÅúRecommended Å Pt. Barrow Å Mauna Loa Å Sodakayla Å Pallas Å Mace Head Åú Å Jungfraujoch Å Mt. BatchelorÅ Whiteface Mt. Å Trinidad Head Å Pico-NARE Å Izana Åú Åú Mt. WaliguanÅ Åú Åú Åú Å Mt. Tai Å Mt. Huangi Å Minamitorishima

55 Recommendation 6: Geostationary air chemistry mission sustained through partnership with ground based agencies (EPA, USDA, NPS, NOAA) LANDSAT model (Engel- Cox)chenistry

56 Recommendation 7: Harness or guide GEOSS and other integration umbrellas to create effective information technology support to enable data retrieval, archiving, access, distribution and interpretation across disparate informations sources (Data Fed, ESIP, rudyworld)

57 EPA CDC NPS USDA DOE NAS, CAAAC CASAC, OMB NOAA Organizations Enviros Academia NASA Private Sector States/Tribes/RPO s Interstate orgs. NARSTO Coordination Cluster Mess PHASE Risk/exposure assessments NAAQS setting PM research GEOSS Programs SIPs, nat. rules designations Eco-informatic Test beds AQ forecasting Accountability/ indicators NADP Satellite data IMPROVE, NCore PM monit, PAMS Supersites Health/mort. records Lidar systems Data sources CMAQ GEOS-CHEM Intensive studies Emissions Meteorology PM centers CASTNET Other networks: SEARCH, IADN..

58 Extras

59 Key Gaps/Recommendations Surface/soil chemistry Scarcity of routine, long term soil and water chemistry campaigns to associate changes in deposition with soil/surface water responses Sustainability of TIME/LTM Spatial and temporal scales Leveraging satellite observations with key surface measurements and vertical profile systems e.g., HCHO, NO 2, glyoxal, SO 2, CO Poorly covered rural areas Link to satellite observations Support ecosystem assessments Critical for integration models and observation systems Support for geostationary satellite campaigns Enable near continuous streams of trace gas and aerosol observations, from current (typically twice daily) point in time measurements Routine aircraft campaigns for vertical profiles Trace gases and aerosols Higher time resolved aerosol components Transition period between Supersites and implementation Acknowledge SEARCH and RPO efforts Strategy for near roadway exposures?

60 Key Gaps/Recommendations, cont. Multiple pollutants (atmospheric view) Air toxics conundrum (inhalable) Perceived and real significant measurement gaps Especially beyond mobile source BTEX compounds Challenging variety of source- and local scale- specific attributes Mercury Speciated dry (elemental gas, divalent gas, p-hg) observation Needed complement to precipitation MDN program Initiative underway coordinated through NADP Nitrogen species Elevated importance related to 3 major MP-MM-AC themes (note: national scale U.S emissions strategies are N and S dominated) Critical need: continued lack of true NO 2 Central diagnostic specie imbedded in atmospheric reaction pathways Compromises leveraging satellite obs. Noted scarcity of rural measurements Slow deployment of NOy Extremely scarce reduced N observations (NH3 and p-nh4) Critical role of CASTNET

61 Key Gaps/Recommendations, cont. Multiple pollutants (atmospheric view), cont Sulfur and CO Inadequate SO2 observations Key to confirming treatment of modeled sulfate formation Input in NH3 bi-directional parameterization schemes Very limited trace CO observations demanded for model evaluation Indicator for exhaust gas HAPs VOCs Rethinking since PAMS of early 1990 s? Lacking important rural indictors (e.g., HCHO) Collocated representative MP sites enables increased probing of confounding associations and constraining model evaluation 75 site initiative through NCORE Central city and key rural areas» modest backbone, ideally catalyzing increased coverage Adds trace gases (CO, NOy, SO2, NH 3 *) to established aerosol speciation sites Reasonable starting surface link for satellite systems

62 Key Gaps/Recommendations, cont. Other process/diagnostic species [based on evolving knowledge and priorities] Glyoxal Precursor for cloud based heterogeneous SOA formation Reasonable indicator of urban based VOC oxidation products Surface link to satellites Nitrous acid, HONO Important generator of OH (morning/evening) Diagnostic for atmospheric N balance Nitrate ion Important role in biogenic SOA formation Other Accountability indicators (atmospheric view) N species, Hg N and Hg emissions reduction projections Energy policies, e.g. shift in fuels Low sulfur diesel Particle physical properties FOSSIL fuels to GRAIN based sources Increased acetaldehyde and PAN Field campaigns Challenge to communicating effectiveness and distributing information beyond small circles Occasional comprehensive model evaluation campaigns

63 Aug. 14 cloud experiment Vertical Profile (courtesy, A. Carlton, EPA) ICARTT PILS WSOC meas. Base CMAQ CMAQ w/ AORGC Vertical profile comparison of CMAQ-predicted OC and PILS WSOC measurements