Prospects for a Global Nuclear Revival: Challenges and Risks. Prof. Wil Kohl Johns Hopkins SAIS October 2011

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1 Prospects for a Global Nuclear Revival: Challenges and Risks Prof. Wil Kohl Johns Hopkins SAIS October 2011

2 Source: IAEA

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4 Source: IAEA

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6 NUCLEAR REVIVAL? Before Fukushima, the United States and a number of European countries were considering a revival of nuclear power. Some 65 new countries were exploring introduction of nuclear for the first time. Categories of countries: 1) Present nuclear countries scheduled for rapid expansion incl. China, India, S. Korea, Russia 2) Other nuclear countries continuing their programs France, Finland, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria 3) Previous nuclear countries that had moratoria or were dormant and have recently opted for new programs incl. US, UK, Sweden, Netherlands, South Africa, Brazil 4) Countries that have decided to phase out nuclear after Fukushima Germany, Italy, Switzerland 5) New Nuclear Countries in emerging nations

7 Impact of Fukushima accident? Many countries incl. US and EU states are implementing safety reviews that will lead to new regulations. Nuclear industry could emerge stronger. Several countries have withdrawn from earlier commitments to extend lives of existing power plants or construct new plants e.g. Germany, Italy, Switzerland, possibly Japan. After a pause, most countries are likely to continue nuclear power because they have operated safe programs and need to expand non-carbon base -load electricity.

8 New Nuclear Countries According to the IAEA, some 65 countries are expressing interest, considering, or actively planning nuclear power and are requesting advice from the Agency 21 countries are in Asia/Pacific 21 are in Africa 12 are in Europe (mostly E.Europe) 11 are in Latin America 20 countries have set target dates for operating new nuclear plants by countries have operating target dates

9 Why is nuclear power important? 1. Need for base-load power to meet rising electricity demand 2. Climate Change --Part of a strategy to reduce carbon emissions 3. Energy security volatile fossil fuel prices, overdependence on hydro or on natural gas or oil imports

10 Countries which have been planning nuclear power for a number of years: --Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam Countries considering nuclear for first time: -- Chile, Jordan, Mongolia, Uruguay Reviving earlier nuclear plans Poland First newcomer to place firm order for 4 new plants UAE from Korea

11 New Country Groupings: Power reactors under construction: Iran (reactor started) Contracts signed, legal and regulatory infrastructure well developed: UAE, Turkey Committed plans, legal and regulatory infrastructure developing: Vietnam, Jordan, Belarus Well-developed plans but commitment pending: Thailand, Indonesia*, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Poland, Lithuania, Chile*; or commitment stalled: Italy Developing plans: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Nigeria, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Morocco, Kuwait* Discussion as serious policy option: Namibia, Kenya, Mongolia, Philippines, Singapore, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Estonia and Latvia, Libya, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Syria, Qatar, Sudan, Venezuela*

12 Regional approaches: Baltic states: Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland--Visaginas Gulf Cooperation Council: early stage of exploring technical issues Slovenia and Croatia co-own Krsko plant

13 Countries with planned or proposed new reactors Source: NEI

14 Reducing the Risks of a Global Nuclear Expansion Nuclear proliferation Nuclear safety Nuclear Security Nuclear waste

15 Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (1970) --foundation of International N P Regime NW states (5) will not transfer to or assist NNW states in acquiring NWs or other explosive devices NNW states accept IAEA safeguards on civilian nuclear activities to prevent diversion to weapons programs All parties have inalienable right to pursue production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes Parties will pursue negotiations in good faith to halt arms race and achieve general and complete disarmament In 1995 NPT extended indefinitely; review conferences every 5 years 188 countries have signed the NPT

16 The Non Proliferation Regime 3 states remain outside NPT (India, Pakistan, Israel) Several states party to NPT have defied it (Iraq, Libya, Iran, Syria); one state (North Korea) withdrew when challenged for non-compliance IAEA inspects reactors in member states based on safeguards agreements; seeks to expand its inspection rights via Additional Protocol Nuclear Suppliers Group (46 countries) sets guidelines to control sale of sensitive dual-use technologies; requires full-scope safeguards

17 NP Risks of Many New Nuclear Countries How to limit the spread of enrichment and reprocessing facilities which carry proliferation risks? --follow example of UAE (renounce) --establish an IAEA fuel bank of LEU Additional Protocol strengthens IAEA inspections UN Security Council needs to take stronger steps to enforce NP obligations (N.Korea and Iran) Need for stronger disarmament efforts by NWS 9 companies which currently export nuclear reactors have just signed Carnegie Code of Conduct calling for best practices (self-regulation)

18 Nuclear Safety How to develop regulatory regimes in new nuclear countries, train personnel, and establish a safety culture. Important advisory role of IAEA. Current Convention on Nuclear Safety sets no binding standards on how safe reactors should be. After Chernobyl WANO established to exchange info and best practices, but need peer reviews. INPO in US. Both need strengthening after Fukushima. New Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (voluntary) recently passed by IAEA Board and General Conference to advise on safety assessments of power plants, organize peer reviews, strengthen emergency preparedness and response, peer reviews of national regulatory bodies, capacity building, etc.

19 Nuclear Security An increase in number of nuclear reactors world-wide will create more potential targets for terrorist sabotage. Existing agreements do not include specific security standards and there is no peer review. --Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and Facilities --International Convention on Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism --Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program Security Council Res prohibits support or financing of non-state actors seeking WMD; strengthens controls on proliferation of sensitive items 2008 new organization WINS (World Institute for Nuclear Security) for security professionals to discuss best practices

20 Nuclear Waste Interim dry cask storage (concrete and metal) will be good for decades. But eventually a need for more permanent solution, e.g. deep geologic disposal. However, national repositories are expensive. What alternatives? --Leasing fuel and taking back SNF so far only Russia-Iran --Establish regional repositories could have much potential. So far, only EU effort Strategic Action Plan for Implementation of European Regional Repositories (new) --United States behind with cancellation Yucca mountain. Sweden and Finland advanced.

21 Nuclear Power as a Wedge to Reduce CO2 Source: IEA, WEO 2009

22 Source: IEA, WEO 2009

23 Thank You! Energy, Resources and Environment Program, Johns Hopkins University SAIS --M.A. and Ph.D programs and research focused on energy and security, sustainability and climate change including adaptation, capital mobilization, and energy and poverty --Global Leaders Forum of distinguished speakers from industry, government, IOs, NGOs, consulting firms --research program on Asian energy security --Dr. David Jhirad, Program Director