Index. Canada. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Transcription

1 Index Ackerman et al. CRED model, 30, 31t adaptation costs, 5 financing, 79 80, aerosols, 18, , 104t agency problems, 26 agriculture, adaptation costs in, 79n Algeria, alternative policy scenarios, 34, 50 55, 53f. See also specific scenario abatement costs, 113t 116t atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, , 100f discounted present value, 68 70, 69t emissions paths, 107, 108t 111t atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, 55, 55t, , 100f Australia Bangladesh, Ban Ki-moon, 83 baseline per capita GDP, 94t 95t Bolivia, 24 bottom-up cost models, Brazil policy pledge, 20 22, 21t Brown, Gordon, 82 building sector, business as usual (bau) baseline energy consumption, 97t 87t business as usual (bau) emissions baseline, 2, 7 18, , 100f Copenhagen Accord and, Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 33, 35, 36f, 37t cost models, 39, 40t emissions trading, 66, 67t framework, 7 9 growth decomposition , 9, 10t 11t through 2030, 12 16, 13t 15t through 2050, 16 18, 17t other greenhouse gases and aerosols, , 104t per capita, 96t Canada Cancún Adaptation Framework, 24 Cancún Agreements, 1 2, 23 24, 82 carbon abatement costs (See cost models) efficiency of (See efficiency) financing issues (See financing; investment requirements) 135

2 initiatives (See Cancún Agreements; Copenhagen Accord) policy scenarios, 1 2 alternative (See alternative policy scenarios) Copenhagen Convergence (See Copenhagen Convergence scenario) political issues and, 4, 80 carbon abatement study data sources and statistical tables, 91, 92t 98t estimates of, method and plan of, 2 3 principal findings, 3 5 synthesis, carbon dioxide emissions atmospheric concentrations, 55, 55t, , 100f baseline (See business as usual emissions baseline) of Copenhagen Accord adherents, of Copenhagen Accord nonadherents, 86 cumulative, 55, 55t individual versus country-level, 51 population growth rates and, 15t, 16, 92t 93t sources of, 18 time path of Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 33, 35, 36f, 37t framework, 8 9 trading (See trade) carbon dioxide price. See shadow price of carbon dioxide carbon fertilization benefits, 1 carbon leakage, 20 carbon offset payments, 3, 59, 63n, 85, 85t Chakravarty scenario, 34, 51, 53f abatement costs, 115t emissions path, 107, 110t China cost models, 41t, 43 emissions growth rate, 9, 12 investment costs, 75 76, 79, policy pledge, 21t, Clinton, Hillary, 82, 83n coal-based power, Congressional Budget Office, 58, 59, 62 Copenhagen Accord, 1 nonadherents, policy pledges, 2, 20 23, 21t cost models, study findings on, 3 5, target warming ceiling, 34 Copenhagen Convergence (CopCon) scenario, 2 3, abatement costs, EMF 22 models, 43, 44t 45t, 48 McKinsey model, 46 48, 47t other model based estimates, RICE model, 39 43, 41t 42t, 48 alternative paths (See alternative policy scenarios) carbon dioxide price, 59, 60t 61t efficiency, 33, 35 36, 38t, 39 emissions paths, 33, 35, 36f, 37t, 108t emissions trading, 57 59, 60t 61t with reallocation (See period reallocation) investment costs, 71, 76, 77t 78t, 129t 130t study estimates based on, 83, 84t versus, 55 cost-benefit analysis, 58 cost-minimizing reallocation. See period reallocation cost models, 2, 4 5, adaptation costs, 5 bau (See business as usual (bau) emissions baseline) bottom-up, (See also McKinsey model) Copenhagen Convergence scenario, emissions trading, 3, 62 63, 64t 65t, 70 emissions trading and (See trade) financing (See financing; investment requirements) marginal costs, 58 59, 60t 61t, 68 through 2050, top-down, (See also EMF 22 models; RICE model) CSIRO scenario, 79 cumulative carbon dioxide emissions, 55, 55t data sources, 91, 92t 98t deforestation, 18, 18n developed countries. See also specific country Copenhagen Accord pledge, 20, 21t Copenhagen Convergence scenario abatement costs, Carbon Abatement Costs and Climate Change Finance

3 alternative paths, 51 52, 53f emissions trading, 58, 63, 70 developing countries. See also specific country Copenhagen Accord nonadherents, Copenhagen Accord pledges, 20 22, 21t Copenhagen Convergence scenario alternative paths, 51 52, 53f cost models, EMF 22 models, 123 emissions trading, 58, 63, 66, 70 financing needs, 84, 85t investment costs, 71, 74, 79, 84, 85t dry climate model (CSIRO), 79 economic cost, versus investment cost, 73 economic growth, 18 Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), 79 economy-wide emissions targets, 20 efficiency, 3 4 Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 33, 35 36, 38t, 39 front-end loading for, 68 Egypt emissions trading, 66 emerging-market countries. See developing countries EMF 22 models, Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 43, 44t 45t, 48 cost parameters, 27, 28t data and statistical tables, , 124t 125t, 126f, 127t 129t emissions trading, 66n, 70 investment costs, 71, 73, 76 79, 123, 129t 130t, 68 versus RICE model, 28, 29f, 122 study estimates based on, 83, 84t through 2050, 34 energy consumption, business as usual baseline, 97t 87t Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2, 4, 7, 12, 107 Energy Modeling Forum cost model. see EMF 22 models energy-sector investment, equations bau emissions baseline, 8 EMF 22 models, 123 investment requirements, 75 McKinsey model, 30 RICE model, 26, equity-based principle of equalization in per capita emissions, 33 European Union emissions trading, 62 global costs estimate, 82 exchange rates, 43 financing, 3, 5. See also investment requirements adaptation costs, 79 80, developing countries needs, 84, 85t fossil fuels, emissions from. See carbon dioxide emissions Frankel scenario, 34, 51 55, 53f abatement costs, 116t emissions path, 107, 111t front-end loading, 68 G-Cubed general equilibrium model, GDP baseline per capita, 94t 95t cost models as percentage of, 55, 68, 69t global financial crisis, 18 global warming, damages from, 1 2 Gradual Equalization Factor, 52 greenhouse gases, 18, , 104t India emissions trading, 62, 66 policy pledge, 21t, individual emissions, versus country-level emissions, 51 industrial countries. See developed countries industrial processes, emissions from. See carbon dioxide emissions industrial sector, infrastructure costs, 80 Integrated Assessment Models, 121 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2 cost estimates, SRES scenario, , 100f targets, 34 Third Assessment Report, 99, 103 INDEX 137

4 International Development Association, 80 International Energy Agency, investment requirements, 3, 5, See also financing components of, Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 71, 76, 77t 78t, 129t 130t implied by cost estimates, sectoral composition of, Iran policy scenario, 35, 37t Iraq, Japan emissions growth rate, 9 emissions trading, 62 Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyoto Protocol, 1, 19, 24 land use, 18, 18n Latecomer Catch-Up Factor, 52 Malaysia marginal costs, 58 59, 60t 61t, 68 market imperfections, 26 McKinsey model, 30 Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 46 48, 47t cost parameters, 30, 31t investment costs, MESSAGE model, Mexico policy pledge, 20 21, 21t nationally appropriate mitigation actions, 20 NCAR scenario, Nigeria, Nordhaus, William cost models (See also RICE model) Copenhagen Convergence, social rate of time preference, 66 North Korea, offset payments, 3, 63n, 85, 85t OGGA (other greenhouse gases and aerosols), 18, , 104t Pakistan emissions trading, 66 per capita emissions, equity-based principle of equalization in, 33 period reallocation abatement costs, 68, 69t, data and statistical tables, 117, 118t 120t emissions paths, 66 70, 67t Philippines, policy pledges, 2, 20 23, 21t, 35 cost models, policy scenarios, 1 2 alternative (See alternative policy scenarios) Copenhagen Convergence (See Copenhagen Convergence scenario) political issues, 4, 80 population growth rates, 15t, 16, 92t 93t power sector, Progressive Reduction Factor, 52 reallocation. See period reallocation REMIND model, RICE model, 4, Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 39 43, 41t 42t, 48 discounted present value, 68 70, 69t cost parameters, 26 27, 27t versus EMF 22 models, 28, 29f, 122 emissions trading, 57, 62 63, 64t 65t investment costs, 71, 73, marginal costs, 58 59, 60t 61t, 68 study estimates based on, 83, 84t through 2050, Russia, Saudi Arabia shadow price of carbon dioxide, 5, under Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 59, 60t 61t offset purchases, 85, 85t time path of, 66 68, 67t social benefits, 58n social rate of time preference, 66, 66n South Africa policy pledge, 20 21, 21t South Korea 138 Carbon Abatement Costs and Climate Change Finance

5 policy pledge, 20 21, 21t Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenario, , 100f Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) cost model. see EMF 22 models Taiwan, target warming ceiling, 34 Thailand time path carbon dioxide price, 66 68, 67t cost-minimizing reallocation (See period reallocation) emissions Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 33, 35, 36f, 37t framework, 8 9 top-down cost model, trade, See also shadow price of carbon dioxide Copenhagen Convergence scenario, 59, 60t 61t with reallocation (See period reallocation) RICE model, 57, 62 63, 64t 65t transport sector, Turkey, Ukraine, United Nations Development Program (UNDP) scenario, 34, 50 51, 53f abatement costs, 113t 114t versus Copenhagen Convergence, 52, 54t, 55 emissions path, 107, 109t United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). See Cancún Agreements; Copenhagen Accord United States Copenhagen Accord pledge, 20, 21t emissions trading, 62 global costs estimate, 82 Waxman-Markey bill (See Waxman-Markey bill) US Census Bureau, 16 Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Waxman-Markey bill (US) climate legislation since, 24 emissions trading, 5, 58, 59, 62, 63n targets, 20 wet climate model (NCAR), World Bank adaptation costs, 79, investment requirements, 71, market exchange rates, 43 World Development Report (WDR), 74 INDEX 139

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