The Role of Efficient Electrification in the Future Energy System

Transcription

1 The Role of Efficient Electrification in the Future Energy System Mari Angeles Major-Sosias Strategic Account Executive, EPRI Club 20 Energy Policy Committee Meeting Granby, CO July 26, 2018

2 Born in a Blackout Founded in 1972 as an independent, nonprofit center for public interest energy and environmental research New York City, The Great Northeast Blackout,

3 Three Key Aspects of EPRI Independent Objective, scientifically based results address reliability, efficiency, affordability, health, safety, and the environment Nonprofit Chartered to serve the public benefit Collaborative Bring together scientists, engineers, academic researchers, and industry experts 3

4 EPRI s Role Stimulate innovation; help accelerate technology development 4

5 Conducting Research Today Energy and Environment Environmental Sciences: Air and Multimedia Strategic Analysis and Technology Assessments Environmental Sciences: Groundwater and Land Management Workforce and the Public: Health Assessment and Safety Environmental Sciences: Water and Ecosystems Generation Nuclear Advanced Nuclear Technology Chemistry, Low-Level Waste and Radiation Management Equipment Reliability Fuel Reliability Long-Term Operations Materials Degradation/Aging Nondestructive Evaluation and Material Characterization Risk and Safety Management Used Fuel and High-Level Waste Management Power Delivery and Utilization 5 Advanced Coal Plants, Carbon Capture and Storage Combustion Turbines Environmental Controls Major Component Reliability Materials and Chemistry Operations and Maintenance Power Plant Water Management Renewable Energy Distribution Utilization Distribution Energy Utilization Information, Communication, and Cyber Security Transmission Grid Operations and Planning Transmission and Substations

6 EPRI Membership Funding by Type March 8, 2017 (unaudited results) Investor-Owned International 50% 28% 6% 10% Municipal Cooperative 5% Federal/State Independent Power Producer 1% Cooperative 4% 6

7 Advisory Council Advises EPRI management and Board on trends in political, economic, and social issues Currently includes representatives from regulatory, academic, environmental, and scientific organizations, along with the finance and business sectors Ensures research relevance and balance in serving the public interest 7

8 Integrated Energy Network A Pathway for Action Ensuring Safe, Reliable, Affordable and Cleaner Energy Resources 8

9 The Integrated Energy Network Efficient Electrification PRODUCTIVITY EFFICIENCY HEALTH & SAFETY ENERGY EFFICIENCY GRID EFFICIENCY EMISSIONS EFFICIENCY WATER EFFICIENCY Economic and environmental factors will increasingly reward and drive the application of electric technologies to boost energy efficiency and grid flexibility, increase productivity and improve product quality while supporting emissions reduction, water savings and safety. 9

10 Efficient Electrification R&D at EPRI Transportation Buildings & Industry New Applications 10

11 AEO 2017 Projects Rising Total Energy and Electricity Use Total Final Energy AEO 2017 Reference Historical growth in total energy and electricity use Recent plateau in total energy and electricity due to structural change and efficiency gains History Electricity 11

12 U.S. National Electrification Assessment: Scenarios Examined CONSERVATIVE REFERENCE PROGRESSIVE Slower Technology Change Reference Technology Reference Technology + Moderate Carbon Price AEO 2017 growth path for GDP and service demands, and primary fuel prices EPRI assumptions for cost and performance of technologies and energy efficiency over time TRANSFORMATION Reference Technology + Stringent Carbon Price Existing state-level policies and targets 12

13 Total Final Energy Declines While Electricity Demand Increases Total Final Energy Historical growth in total energy and electricity use Recent plateau in total energy and electricity due to structural change and efficiency gains History Electricity USNEA projections Efficiency Electrification AEO 2017 Reference USNEA Reference USNEA Transformation USNEA Transformation USNEA Reference Compared with AEO, USNEA Reference projects more efficiency gains and more electrification declining total energy with rising electricity Both efficiency and electrification accelerate under a carbon policy in the Transformation scenario 13

14 U.S. National Electrification Assessment (USNEA) - Findings SCENARIO Electricity Portion of Final Energy ( ) Total Final Energy Economy Wide Electric Load CONSERVATIVE (21%- 32%) 20% 19% 24% REFERENCE (21%- 36%) 22% 20% 32% PROGRESSIVE (21%- 39%) 27% 57% 35% TRANSFORMATION (21%- 47%) 32% 67% 52% 14

15 Quad Btus Final Energy TWh Electricity Demand Efficient Electrification: Reference Scenario GDP Growth (AEO) Structural Change (AEO) Efficiency Improvements Electrification Other Non-Electric Energy % Growth Electrification Buildings (before electrification) Vehicles Buildings Industry 20 Natural Gas Electric Electricity Share0 21% 36% Increased Electricity Industry (before electrification)

16 Quad Btus Final Energy TWh Electricity Demand Efficient Electrification: Transformation Tight Carbon Target GDP Growth (AEO) Structural Change (AEO) % Growth Electrification Vehicles Buildings Industry Efficiency Improvements Electrification Other Non-Electric Energy Buildings (before electrification) 20 Natural Gas Electric Electricity Share0 21% 47% Increased Electricity Industry (before electrification)

17 Transportation: Looking Ahead at Economic Potential of EV (Reference) Car manufacturers develop wide range of EV models with ~300 mile range Battery costs continue to fall rapidly Economic Potential Adoption Home or work charging is available for most drivers EV maintenance costs are lower NG prices remain low, moderate increase in oil price ICEV fuel economy continues to improve EV / PHEV are most economical choice for 75% of potential new vehicle decisions by 2030 EV / PHEV represent 40% of new vehicle market by 2030 (90% by 2050) (75% by 2050) 17

18 Targeted Electrification Technologies RESIDENTIAL Air-source and ground-source heat pumps Variable-capacity ducted heat pumps COMMERCIAL Variable refrigerant flow heat pumps Variable-capacity rooftop heat pumps Rooftop air-source heat pumps Heat pump water heaters Heat pump pool dehumidification Forklifts (comm & ind applications) Truck stop electrification Commercial food service equipment Water ozonation/ Wastewater treatment INDUSTRIAL Infrared curing and drying UV curing Induction surface treatment Induction furnaces Pipeline compression C&I heat recovery chiller Agricultural equipment Pumps (single- to three-phase) TRANSPORTATION Light duty passenger vehicles Transit/School buses Heavy duty trucks 18

19 Annual TWh Electric Generation Mix and Total CO 2 Emissions Hydro+ Nuclear 2050 Progressive Reference Conservative Transformation Rooftop PV Solar Wind new Nuclear existing Billion tons CO History Conservative Reference Progressive 2000 NG CCS 2 Transformation 1000 Coal tco 2 /MWh

20 Key Messages from National Electrification Assessment Electrification Trend Continues Energy Efficiency Natural Gas System Impacts Driven by technological change and consumer choice, further bolstered by policy Efficient electrification + end-use efficiency lead to falling final energy use Remains an important fuel for end-use and electric generation Improved Environmental Outcomes Electric Sector Resource Planning To realize the potential outlined here Pro-active approaches and technology R&D are essential 20

21 Join EPRI for a Global Forum on Electrification SAVE THE DATE AUGUST 20-23, 2018 LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA To gain an understanding of the quantifiable customer and environmental benefits of efficient electrification To learn about best practices for implementing efficient electrification programs to maximize customer benefit To experience the latest electrification-related technologies in action To collaborate with industry, government, and academic leaders For more information, contact Info@Electrification2018.com ELECTRIFICATION 2018 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & EXPOSITION Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Scan here for the latest EPRI Efficient Electrification newsletter 21

22 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity Learn More about EPRI s Efficient Electrification R&D Initiative: Download EPRI s U.S. National Electrification Assessment: pdf 22