Renewable Energy Generation: Different Challenges in Different Continents

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1 i-sup2012 Local Renewable Energy Sources May 9, 2012 Bruges Renewable Energy Generation: Different Challenges in Different Continents Dr. Jan Declercq, Chief Technology Officer, CG Power Systems

2 HIGHLIGHTS SLIM - BioSLIM Transformers Over 7,500 units and 19,000 MVA installed worldwide Voltage level up to 72kV Onshore and offshore applications Over 50% of cumulative market share in offshore wind industry (2011) Highest energy efficiency, lowest ecological footprint

3 HIGHLIGHTS Pad mounted transformers and substations for wind and solar applications Over 12,000 MVA of WindPad transformers and substations delivered worldwide (2011). CG interconnected approximately 22% of all wind energy in the US and 8% in Canada. SolarPad substations are 5 times smaller and 3 times lighter than conventional concrete substations.

4 HIGHLIGHTS A reliable solution for the offshore wind energy industry Proven track record Market leader in offshore WTG transformers Turnkey solutions Innovative AC grid connection Attractive delivery times Grid code compliance expertise Designs integrate O&M requirements

5 The global wind power market in 2011 The world added 41.2 GW of new capacity in = 21% increase compared to end gigawatt markets in 2011: 3 in Europe (Germany, UK, Spain) 2 in Asia (China, India) 2 in Americas (USA, Canada) Source: GWEC,

6 The global solar (PV) power market in 2011 The world added 27.7 GW of new capacity in = 70% increase of capacity compared to end 2010!! 6 gigawatt markets in 2011: 3 in Europe (Italy, Germany, France) 2 in Asia (China, Japan) 1 in Americas (USA) Source: EPIA,

7 Sustainable production Different challenges in different continents... USA Germany India 7

8 USA: Bright future for natural gas and renewables Forecasted evolutions between 2010 and 2035 Coal remains main fuel, but share falls to 39% from 45% in Use of natural gas grows, share rises from 24% to 27%. Despite increase in nuclear capacity, share drops from 20% in 2010 to 18% in ~ Renewables (excl. hydro) account for 33% of growth in electricity generation. Share rises to 16% from 10% in Source: EIA (US Gov.) 8

9 USA: PTC uncertainty drives wind boom-bust cycle Current attractive tax incentive schemes and cash grants (PTC, ITC) require project developers to bring wind farm online on or before December 31, Until today, policy makers have failed to extend incentives will be record year for US wind industry (8-10 GW!!) Large potential pipeline post-2012, but actual development is stalled. Several big players have announced job losses and/or postponed investments (e.g. Vestas, Mitsubishi) 9

10 USA opportunity: Atlantic Wind Connection What? HVDC offshore transmission backbone to be built in front of the coasts of New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Virginia that will enable up to 7,000 MW of offshore wind turbine capacity to be integrated into the regional high-voltage grid. Who? Project is developed by Trans-Elect and Atlantic Grid Development, and is sponsored by Good Energies, Google, Marubeni Corporation and ELIA. Personal comment Solar, Wind sources plenty available Space available Money and process will be a bumpy road but is available US typical larger Multi Megawatt projects 10

11 German solar in shock, off shore opportunity ANNUALLY ADDED SOLAR POWER CAPACITY - GERMANY Source: NREL, 2012 At the end of 2011, Germany (24.7 GW) accounted for over one third of the world s cumulative installed solar capacity (67.3 GW). German government recently approved large cut of feed-in tariffs for solar power: onetime cuts between 20% and 30% + further monthly FIT reductions + restrictions as to percentage of generated electricity that is subject to FIT. German-based hardware suppliers (wafers, cells, modules) struggle to survive, due to oversupply and falling prices on the global market (e.g. Q-Cells, Solon, Solar Millennium and Solarhybrid). 11

12 Wind blows hard in India ESTIMATES OF CUMULATIVE WIND POWER CAPACITY - INDIA Level of currently installed capacity India is 5th largest wind energy producer in the world : India adds most wind capacity after China and US. Est. capacity end 2011 = 15.9GW (= 7% of world capacity). Industry targets 15GW added capacity between 2012 and National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC): 15% renewable energy by

13 Solar power in India: still many hurdles to overcome Large potential and big ambitions Capacity end of 2010 = 82MW, added capacity in 2011 = 180 MW. Large solar potential: estimates range between 30 and 60 GW of capacity by NSM - National Solar Mission (1-2GW by 2013, 4-10GW by 2017, 20GW by 2022). Important state-level solar policies in Gujarat (3GW by 2015), Rajasthan, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Growing pains... Lack of experienced and well-trained technical manpower. Many developers struggle to get projects financed. Lack of details on financing of later NSM phases. Some states might have set too ambitious targets.... but some bright spots as well Plummeted solar cell and panel prices on global market price of solar energy in India dropped 28% in 2011 solar energy might reach grid parity sooner than expected. Indian government has set up own company to build federal solar projects and help country to achieve targets. 13

14 Sustainable production : Where are we now cost Government cost Policy measures % implementation Industry/investment cost % implementation

15 Sustainable production : Where are we now

16 Sustainable production : Where are we now

17 What we will see - What s in it for us? Increased lobbying of energy users, T sector, D sector, T&D suppliers, renewable energy suppliers, conventional generation sector, policy makers, nuclear sector Due to crisis, countries react differently (Spain, Germany, China, US,..) We will have NIMBY and NIMBA syndroms

18 What in it for e-cities and e-ports? Use of renewable energy as source for initiatives Beware of NIMBY and NIMBA Use of ports and cities as demonstration projects It s a matter of SPEED AND FOCUS Ports as centres for renewable energy research, installation Bremerhaven Antwerp OWI

19 Thank you!