WHAT DOES A GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION STRATEGY LOOK LIKE? - AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

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1 WHAT DOES A GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION STRATEGY LOOK LIKE? - AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Eicke R. Weber CEO, Berkeley Education Alliance for Research i Singapore BEARS (till 12/2016: Director, Fh - ISE, Freiburg) Vice-President, International Solar Energy Societ ISES The Future of Energy Conference Edmonton, September 21, 2017 Graphic: Primolo Eicke R. Weber

2 The radical transformation of our energy system is needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3 rd Industrial Revolution! This will be the first step to transform the world to living in a sustainable way Limited availability of fossil fuels Danger of catastrophic climate change Risk of nuclear disasters Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable regions New: Economic advantages! Important aspects to take into account: The world is getting warmer The transformation needs time and money Technological development Capacity building Investments in infrastructure Industrialized countries with high consumption per capita must lead! 2

3 Cornerstones for the Transformation of our Energy System to efficient use of finally 100% renewable energy Energy efficiency: buildings, production, transport Massive increase in renewable energies: photovoltaics, solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass... Fast development of the electric grid: transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional Small and large scale energy storage systems: electricity, hydrogen, methane, methanol, biogas, solar heat, hydro... Sustainable mobility as integral part of the energy system: electric mobility with batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells 3

4 World EnergyRessources World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year renewable per year Waves per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND finite Natural Gas 215 Total 240 Total 2010 World energy use: 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TWy TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO per year Geothermal Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 4 COAL

5 renewable finite World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year per year Waves per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND Natural Gas 330 Total 310 Total 2010 World energy use 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TW TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO per year Geothermal Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 5 COAL

6 Contribution of RES to Electricity Supply in Germany Historical Development 39 GW PV in 15a 41 GW Wind in 25a Electricity Feed-in Act: Jan March 2000 EEG: April 2000 EEG: August 2004 EEG: January % 1,000 roofs program: ,000 roofs program: % 6 Data: BMWi

7 Long-term utility-scale PV system price scenarios 7 Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende

8 Levelized cost of electricity Solar power will rapidly become the lowest-cost form of electricity in many regions of the world! Dubai 2016: 2,42ct/kWh!! 8 Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015): Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende

9 Source: Solarbuzz

10 Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio c-si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product! material quality diffusion length base conductivity device quality passivation of surfaces low series resistance light confinement material quality cell structures PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell MWT: Metal Wrap Through IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back Contact Back Junction HJT: Hetero Junction Technology Industry Standard 14% PERC 15% BC- HJT IBC-BJ HJT MWT- PERC 16% module efficiency 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% device quality Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC

11 Advanced Cell Technologies Passivated Emitter and Rear PERC 1 Heterojunction on Intrinsic layer HIT 3 Passivating Layer Local Contacts Metal Wrap-Through MWT-PERC 2 Interdigitated Back Contact/Junction IBC-BJ 4 Lightly Doped Front Diffusion Texture+passivation Layer 11 Metal Wrap Through Contact Passivating Layer 1 Blakers et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 55, pp , Dross et al., Proc. 4th WCPEC, 2006, pp Sanyo/Panasonic 4 Sunpower Local Contacts

12 Beyond Silicon High Efficiency III-V/Si Cell? III-V on Si Crystalline III-V on Si Si > % Slide courtesy R. Cariou et al., Fraunhofer ISE

13 Beyond Silicon 2-terminal GaInP/AlGaAs//Si AM1.5G Slide courtesy R. Cariou et al., Fraunhofer ISE

14 Perovskite tandem photovoltaics on silicon 14 Left: Schematic illustration of a perovskite/silicon tandem cell. Right: Light enters through the perovskite cell, where mostly the visible part of the solar spectrum is absorbed. Near-infrared light is transmitted to the silicon cell where it is absorbed 14 Perovskite solar cells having high efficiency with tunable bandgap have great potential for tandem application with silicon solar cells. J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2016, 7, Slide courtesy N. Mathews, ERI@N, NTU 2017

15 * PEROVSKITE-SILICON CELLS Work in progress...proposed for SinBeRISE-2 15 Cell V oc (V) J sc (ma/cm 2 ) Fill Factor(%) Efficiency (%) Perovskite top cell c-si cell stand-alone c-si cell filtered terminal tandem Silicon cells provided by from SERIS, NUS

16 World Market Outlook: Experts are Optimistic Example Sarasin Bank, November 2010 market forecast (2010): 30 GW p in 2014, 110 GW p in 2020 annual growth rate: in the range of 20 % and 30 % 2016: ca. 70 GW p, far above forecast! 110GW p /a for 2020 might be Conservative! Growth rate Total Newly new installed installations (right) (right scale) Annual growth rate (left(left) scale) Source: Sarasin, Solar Study, Nov

17 Global PV Production Capacity and Installations From 2016: Start of 2nd cycle of PV! Module Capacity (GW) Excess Capacity (GW) Production Capacity Installations Excess Capacity Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG 17

18 Projections to TW-scale PV from TW workshop March Using simple assumptions, we can project that just maintaining the 2015 deployment rate would reach 1-TW deployment before A 25% annual growth rate would reach 5-10 TW by 2030!

19 PV Heading into the Terawatt Range this is a Disruption! Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy In 2050 or before between and GW p PV will be installed! By 2016, less than 300 GW p have been installed! We are just at the beginning of the global growth curve! Source: IEA

20 Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning

21 Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning

22 Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning

23 Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning

24 Results of Scenarios Comparing cumulative total costs No cost for CO 2 - emissions Constant prices for fossil energy Cumulative cost in Bn #1-80 % CO 2, Coal exit not accelerated #2-80 % CO 2, Coal exit accelerated #3-85 % CO 2, Coal exit accelerated #4-90 % CO 2, Coal exit accelerated Ref.: Today s system frozen Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning

25 Results of Scenarios Comparing cumulative total costs No cost for CO 2 - emissions Constant prices for fossil energy Cumulative cost in Bn Cumulative additional cost for scenarios 2 & 3: about 1100 Bn for , ca. 0.8 % of German GDP! #2-80 % CO 2, Coal exit accelerated #3-85 % CO 2, Coal exit accelerated Slide courtesy Hans-Martin Henning

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31 Grid stability withgrowing amounts of fluctuating RE: Grid in Germany today more stable than in 2006, and in France, UK today! 31 For comparison (2013): SAIDI: France System (81% Average Nuclear Interuption Power): Duration 68 min., UK: Index 55 mins.!

32 What does a global energy transformation strategy look like? The global transformation of our energy system to a sustainable system is the challenge of our generation, offering new economic opportunities. PV and wind energy will be the key pillars of our future energy system, that will be based on efficient use of 100% renewable energy. This transformation process will go faster than expected, driven by the low cost of solar and wind electricity, and soon of batteries as well. Nuclear electricity will be priced out of the market. With a minimum price of $ 30/t CO 2 emission the use of coal becomes too costly - the higher the CO 2 price, the faster coal disappears! Doubling energy efficiency in buildings, transport and production will be a key component of the transformation process. The grid will have to cope with intermittancy of solar and wind power, by intelligent interconnection, load management, storage, and grid integration where possible. 32

33 A smart energy transformation strategy should include: Developing local and global models of near-100% RE supply: How can it work, what are needed amounts of RE, storage, interconnection? Defining five-year goals for the next three decades Developing intelligent incentives for RE use and increasing energy efficiency Defining supportive regulatory conditions with small administrative burdens for the use of RE, without extra taxation for RE use and storage Phasing out subsidies for power generated from fossil fuel Phasing in a realistic carbon price above $ 30/t CO 2 emissions by certificate trading or simple taxation Careful monitoring of the progress and adjusting strategies throughout the transformation process 33 We have only one shot at transforming our energy system fast enough to avoid catastrophic climate change!