The study on the changing characteristics and their Countermeasures for China's carbon emissions in

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1 The study on the changng characterstcs and ther Countermeasures for Chna's carbon emssons n Quxan Wang a,b,d, Zhqang Gao a,c, Jca Nng a, Qng-shu Lu a, Runhe Sh c,we Gao c a Yanta Insttute of Coastal Zone Research, Chnese Academy of Scences, Yanta, Chna; b Unversty of Chnese Academy of Scences, Bejng, Chna; c USDA UV-B Montorng and Research Program, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State Unversty, Fort Collns, CO, USA; d Insttute of geography and plannng, Ludong Unversty, Yanta , Chna ABSTRACT Based on the quanttatve calculaton of Chna's 30 provnces of carbon emssons by the method of 2006 IPCC wth the data from Chna energy statstcal yearbook and Chna cement Yearbook, a detaled analyss of the temporal and spatal varaton characterstcs of carbon emssons n both Chnese level and provnces level was made. The result showed that most of the provnces of Chna's carbon emssons presented an ncreasng trend n the past 11 years, especally n Shandong Provnce, Hebe Provnce, Shanx Provnce, Laonng Provnce, Jangsu provnce whch s located n the natonal top fve. Then accordng to the current carbon emssons trend, the author put forward some countermeasures for Chna, such as speedng up the pace of ndustral restructurng, searchng for clean energy and other measures to reduce the carbon emssons of chna to low the emsson rate and contrbute to the world. Key words: carbon emssons, varaton, characterstcs, Countermeasures, Chna, INTRODUCTION Today Chna has been a bg country wth ts economy develops rapdly. At the same tme Chna s second large country n greenhouse gas emssons occupyng 10% of the whole World's amount [1]. The latest World Energy Outlook for 2010 of IEA (Internatonal Energy Agency, the IEA) predcts that the prmary Energy consumpton of Chna n 2020 wll reach 3159 Mtoe wth CO2 emssons of energy consumpton to be 8.5 Gt [2], and then Chna wll become the World's bggest country n energy consumpton and carbon emssons. As a responsble country, n November 2009, just before the Unted Natons Clmate Change Conference (UNFCCC) n Copenhagen (COP15), Chna offcally pledged to reduce ts CO 2 emssons per GDP (or CO 2 ntensty) by 40 45% from the 2005 level and ncrease the share of non-fossl energy n prmary energy to 15% by 2020 [3]. Wth annual GDP growth rate at7% durng the 12th Fve-Year-Plan (FYP) perod and 6% durng the 13th FYP perod, the 45% CO 2 ntensty reducton target mples annual CO 2 emssons of 8600 mllon tonnes by 2020, close to 8400 mllon tonnes, the UNFCCC 450 ppm scenaro for Chna [4]. Wll Chna realzes ts goal for 2020? To predct that the author must calculate the whole CO 2 emssons of Chna n frstly to master ts CO 2 emssons rules and then compare the Address correspondence to quxanpw@163.com Remote Sensng and Modelng of Ecosystems for Sustanablty X, edted by We Gao, Thomas J. Jackson, Jnnan Wang, N-Bn Chang, Proc. of SPIE Vol. 8869, SPIE CCC code: X/13/$18 do: / Proc. of SPIE Vol

2 two fgures. If the calculatng result s almost equal to the target, Chna wll go ahead wth present CO 2 emsson rate. But f the calculated result s far larger than the target, Chna should take great efforts to reduce ts CO 2 emssons and ncrease ts CO 2 snk. 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1 Data Descrpton The fossl fuels data used n ths paper are from fossl fuels Chna energy statstcal yearbook [5], and the cement producton comes from the Chnese cement yearbook [6], Chnese populaton, GDP and other socal and economc data are from Chna statstcal yearbook [7], the carbon emssons parameters of energy and cement are from lstng of IPCC The calculaton methods of Chna's CO 2 emssons Accordng to the fourth assessment report of IPCC n 2007, the man source of ncreased greenhouse gases s the burnng of fossl fuels (carbon doxde emssons n the burnng of fossl fuels s near 95.13% of the world total emssons n 2004) [8].And n the world wde the emssons nventory method of IPCC2006 s often used, so n ths artcle we calculate the carbon emssons of fossl fuels and cement consumpton n Chna's 30 provnces(excludng Xzang muncpalty for ts lost of related data)wth t The calculatng method of CO 2 emssons for fossl fuels In order to avod the larger error made by the drect use of prmary energy, the data ths artcle used s from the energy statstcal yearbook of Chna statstcs of the eght class fnal energy data, ncludng raw coal, coke, crude ol, gasolne, kerosene, desel ol, fuel ol and natural gas, wth reference to the IPCC gudelnes [9-10] provdng varous fuel carbon content by default, and varous fuel CO 2 emsson factor per unt of energy of the default; To convert unts of varous fuel nto ordnary energy unt, ths artcle ntroduced low calorfc value used n energy statstcs n Chna [11]. The resultng computaton formula s as follows: Suggested emsson factor = carbon oxdaton factor * orgnal emsson factor *calorfc value n Chna That s EF = OXID * NCV (1) * EF co 2, I In whch NCV I means the net calorfc value unt mass or volume of the fuel (energy content), and s a natonal desgnated value. OXID EF s the oxdaton rate for fuel, and s the IPCC default value. co2, s the default CO 2 emsson factor for fuel of per unt energy,and s also the IPCC default value whch equals to default carbon content of fuel *44/12. On the bass of CO 2 emsson coeffcent for a varety of fossl fuels, emsson source actvty (that s, the fuel consumpton) [8] was selected n ths paper to calculate the carbon emssons of fossl fuels. The specfc calculaton formula s as follows: Y = E F * EF (2) e j jy I In the fgure 2, Y e jy means the CO 2 emssons for fuels. F s the actvty ntensty, whch means the consumpton of the Proc. of SPIE Vol

3 fuel I(whch s often calculated by mass or volume ) n the year Y of the provnce J The calculaton method of CO 2 emssons for Cement producton process Wth the method 1 of IPCC 2006 emssons lstng gudelnes 6, ths artcle estmates clnker producton wth the cement output data. Due to the uncertanty of Chna's provncal cement types and the mport and export data of clnker cement, consderng that Chna's cement exports s not bg, only accounted for 3% of total cement producton [12], the paper adopts the clnker content s 75% wthout takng t nto account to calculate the carbon doxde emssons of cement producton process. The formula s as follows: Y = M EF = M * 0.75 * 0.52 = M *0.39 (3) ce c* clc c c In whch, Y s the CO ce 2 emssons for the cement producton process. EF clcs the CO 2 emsson factor for cement clnker, and the default clnker emsson factor corrected by CKD gven n the IPCC2006 s 0.52 tons of CO 2 / tons of clnker. M c means data for actvty, that s, the cement producton of one year n each provnces, whch are all from Chna cement yearbook. Emsson factor 0.39 means that each ton of cement emts 0.39 tons of CO RESULTS ANALYSIS 3.1 The analyss of Chna's overall carbon emssons changes from 2000 to 2010 After the accurate calculaton accordng to the above methods, we made a fgure of the Chna s overall CO 2 emssons durng 2000 to 2010 as Fgure carbon emssons(one hundred mllon CO2) y = x R 2 = year Fgure 1. The CO 2 emssons n Chna durng 2000 to 2010 From the fgure we can see that wth the rapd economy development the CO 2 emssons n Chna ncrease durng 2000 to 2010 quckly, wth a lttle more than 4000 mllon tones of CO 2 emssons n the year 2000 and then twce n the year 2005 and then three tmes as much as the year 2000 n 2010.That means the ncreased CO 2 emssons n the fve years n Chna are about 4000 mllon tones n the last. 3.2 The analyss on carbon emssons changes n each provnce from 2000 to The analyss on changes of Chna's fossl fuel emssons n In accordance wth the method 2.21and accordng to the formula (1) and (2) we calculated the CO2 emssons of fossl fuel n Chna's provnces wth varous fuels default carbon content and varous default CO 2 emsson factor for knds of fuel energy provded by IPCC 2006.The result showed that the provnces wth larger CO 2 emssons for fossl fuel n are man n nne provnces, whch are Shandong provnce, Hebe provnce, Shanx provnce, Laonng provnce, Jangsu provnce, Guangdong provnce, Henan provnce, Inner Mongola autonomous regon and Zhejang provnce, among whch carbon doxde emssons n Shandong provnce are n the frst place n Chna after 2004 and Proc. of SPIE Vol

4 ncreased sgnfcantly n the recent ten years wth 4.18 tmes emssons of 2000 n As to the changng rate of Chna's fossl fuel emssons n each provnce durng 2000 to 2010, we made a fgure (seen as fgure 2) accordng to the calculated changng rates, whch ncludes the rate of 2005/2005 (whch means the fuel emssons n 2005 / the fuel emssons n 2000), the rate of 2010/2005(whch means the fuel emssons n 2010 / the fuel emssons n 2005)and the rate of 2010/2000(whch means the fuel emssons n 2010 / the fuel emssons n 2000) the rate the rate 2005/2000 the rate 2010/2005 the rate 2010/ Regons Hanan Nngxa Inner Mongola Shandong Shaanx Fujan Yunnan Guangx Hunan Henan Qngha Jangsu Xnjang Hebe Schuan Zhejang Jangx Guangdong Jln Chongqng Anhu Hube Tanjn Shanx Guzhou Gansu Laonng Helongjang Shangha Bejng Fgure 2. The changes of Chna s fuel CO2 emsson rates n each provnce durng 2000 to 2010 From the Fgure 2 we can see clearly on the whole that the rates of 2010/2005 n most provnces of Chna are much lower than those of 2005/2000, whch means that the fuel CO 2 emssons n ncreased much more slowly than they were n And as for Chna s 30 provnces, ther fuel CO 2 emsson rates vared dfferently. For example the provnces wth bgger rates are manly n Hanan, Shaanx, Nngxa Shandong and Inner Mongola autonomous regon wth ther rate of 2010/2000 more than 4. It s very nterestng that though the fuel CO 2 emssons n Hanan provnce are low n 2010 (only wth 55.7 mllon tones) ts CO 2 emsson rate of 2010/2000 s 6.08 and s the bggest n Chna. The phenomenon ndcates that the economy development n Hanan provnce depends much on fuels than usual. As to Shaanx provnce and Inner Mongola autonomous regon, ther fuel CO 2 emssons are huge and ncreased rapdly durng , the man reason of whch s that they are the man bg coal producton provnces The analyss on changes of Chna's cement producton emssons n Accordng to Formula (3) n the method of 2.22, we calculate the cement producton CO 2 emssons throughout all the Chnese provnces wth the statstc data of Chnese cement almanac calendar year. The result showed that the CO 2 emtted n the cement producton are much less than those from fuel. But as a whole they were ncreasng durng , and the ncreasng rate s becomng larger. The changng rates of Chna s CO 2 emssons n cement producton n each provnce are as fgure the rate the rate 2005/2000 the rate 2010/2005 the rate 2010/ Inner Mongola Qngha Shaanx Jln Nngxa Schuan Guzhou Jangx Anhu Hanan Helongjang Fujan Yunnan Hunan Hube Guangx Gansu Jangsu Chongqng Henan Tanjn Xnjang Shanx Hebe Zhejang Laonng Shandong regons Shangha Guangdong Bejng Fgure 3. The changes of Chna s cement producton CO 2 emsson rates n each provnce durng 2000 to 2010 Proc. of SPIE Vol

5 It can be seen from fgure 3 that the changng rates of 2010/2005 are almost bgger than those of 2005/2000, whch s very dfferent from the trend of fgure 2. The man provnces wth hgh changng rates are Inner Mongola autonomous regon, Qngha provnce, Shaanx provnce, Jln provnce and Nngxa provnce. Whle the CO 2 emssons changng rates n Bejng, Guangdong provnce and Shangha were the lowest durng The analyss on spacal changes of Chna's carbon emssons Addng the calculated CO 2 emssons of fossl fuel and cement producton we got Chna s total CO 2 emssons durng Fgure 4a and 4b are Chna s CO 2 emssons for each provnce. From them we can see that CO 2 emssons n all provnces of Chna are n ncreasng trend on the whole, among whch three provnces are dstnct. They are Shandong provnce, Hebe provnce and Inner Mongola autonomous regon, whch nclude not only huge CO 2 emssons but also hgh ncreasng rate. Besdes, Jangsu provnce, Henan provnce Shanx provnce, Laonng provnce, Zhejang provnce and Guangdong provnce were also wth larger CO 2 emssons n 2010 than they were n The man provnces wth lower CO 2 emssons and lower ncreasng rate are manly dstrbuted n the west and mddle Chna as seen from fgure 4a and 4b, lke Qngha provnce and Schuan provnce etal. Fg.4a. The dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons n 2000 Fg.4b The dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons n 2010 Fg.4c The dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons rate n Fgure 4c s the dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons rate n From t we can see that the bggest CO 2 emssons rates are n two Chnese s provnces, whch are Hanan provnce and Nngxa autonomous regon. From 4a and 4b we can see that they are n low CO 2 emssons but n 4c ther CO 2 emssons rates are hgh, whch ndcates that the two provnce are n rapd economy develop wth energy. Then the CO 2 emssons rates n Shandong provnce, Shaanx provnce and Mongola autonomous regon are hgher too. The regons wth dark green color n Fgure 4c are n low CO 2 emssons and manly dstrbuted n the mddle Chna. 4. DISCUSSION 4.1 The changng trends of Chna's carbon emssons From Fgure 1 we can see that the whole CO 2 emssons n Chna ncrease quckly durng 2000 to 2010 along wth the rapd economy development and ther ncreasng rate s about 4000 mllon tones CO 2 n fve years durng the past. And f we don t consder others condtons, provdng that Chna wll go on emttng CO 2 by the rate of , Chna s CO 2 emssons wll be large enough. Fortunately, the whole Chnese had already realzed ths, and has been takng great efforts to reduce ts CO 2 emssons and ncrease ts CO 2 snk, and the ncreasng rate s already low down and by now we Proc. of SPIE Vol

6 could see ts achevement bt by bt, especally n the fuel burnng. From Fgure 2 we can see clearly on the whole that the rates of 2010/2005 n most provnces of Chna are much lower than those of 2005/2000, whch means that the fuel CO 2 emssons n ncreased much more slowly than they were n , whch s the good phenomenon of Chna s polces of low carbon economy. On the other hand the amount of CO 2 emssons n Chna we calculated s hgher than the real fgure snce the fuel n Chna can not burned thoroughly lke abroad. So, after the about dscuss, we have good reasons to beleve that Chna wll do ts best to low ts CO 2 emssons to reach the goal of 2020 after the 13th FYP perod. 4.2 The countermeasures for Chna s low carbon emssons Then how to low Chna s CO2 emssons? The followngs are the author s thoughts Economc transton Snce Chna s past economy depended much on the energy, and wth ts economy develops rapdly, Chna s CO 2 emssons ncrease quckly. If Chna changes ts form of economy development, whch means that t development should depend much on clear energy such as sunny energy etc. ts CO 2 emssons ncreasng wll slow down. 4.22Development of scence and technology We say that scence and technology are the frst productve force. And from ths angle we beleve that wth the advanced scence and technology we could solve many problems met n the large amount of CO 2 emssons. For examples, the advanced constructon technology could save energy and low CO 2 emssons. Wth the popularty of buldng energy savng and low carbon envronmental protecton concept of Chna, photovoltac power generaton technology s developng rapdly. Recently, Yanta cty frst realzed the grd-connected power generaton of rooftop photovoltac power generaton system n resdental area [13]. It s sad that ths dstrbuted photovoltac system can save 21.6 tons of standard coal and low 61.8 tons of carbon doxde emssons every year. Accordng to the solar battery s 25-year-lfe, t can save 540 tons of standard coal and low 1500 tons of carbon doxde emssons Constructon of nternatonal far carbon doxde emssons system As for the farness of the world s CO 2 emssons, there are so many dfferent deas about t. Though Chna has not attend any agreement of the world, as a responsble bg country, Chna has been promse much and has done a lot. I beleve that n the future f the world can reach the agreement and contrbute the carbon emssons rghts reasonably, Chna s CO 2 emssons ncreasng rate wll low much Conscousness enhancement of the low carbon economy and envronmental protecton Chna s a country wth a bg populaton. The low carbon economy needs everyone s effort. So the contnuous enhancement of the people s conscousness of low carbon and envronmental protecton wll help much. And wth the conscousness deep n people s mnd they wll do much from all sdes of the daly lfe to low Chna s CO 2 emssons. 5. CONCLUSION In ths paper the author frstly calculated Chna's 30 provnces of carbon emssons n by the method of 2006 IPCC. Then a detaled analyss of the temporal and spatal varaton characterstcs of carbon emssons n both Chnese level and provnces level was made. The result showed that though the most of Chna's carbon emssons presented an ncreasng trend n the past 11 years, especally n Shandong Provnce, Hebe Provnce and Shanx Provnce, the ncreasng rates of 2010/2005 for fuel carbon emssons were much lower than that of 2005/2000. At last the author put forward some countermeasures, such as economc transton, development of scence and technology, constructon of Proc. of SPIE Vol

7 nternatonal far carbon doxde emssons system and conscousness enhancement of the low carbon economy and envronmental protecton. Although the calculated fgure for the Chna s annual CO 2 emssons s large and there are stll lots of problem on the way to the goal of 2020, we thnk that Chna wll realze n the support of the whole country and the whole world. ACKNOWLEDGES The authors are grateful for the support from Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna ( , ), Ecologcal Innovaton & Breedng Project (Y , ) and USDA NIFA project ( ). REFERENCE [1] "The energy and carbon emssons analyss n Chna's sustanable development group of Energy research nsttute. The study on Chna s energy and carbon emssons scenaro[j]. Journal of research and exploraton, 2003, 25 (6) : 4-10 [2] Internatonal Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2010 [R]. Pars: Organzaton for Economc Cooperaton and Development, [3] Hu J. Presentaton at clmate change summt meetng n New York[R], Sep [4]Jaha Yuana, Yong Houb, Mng Xu. Chna s 2020 carbon ntensty target: Consstency, mplementatons, and polcy mplcatons. Renewable and Sustanable Energy Revews. 27 June [5] Natonal bureau of statstcs (NBS).Chna energy statstcal yearbook from 2001 to 2011 [M]. Chna statstcal publshng house, [6] Chna cement assocaton. Chna cement yearbook from 2001 to 2011 [M] [7] Natonal bureau of statstcs (NBS).Chna statstcal yearbook from 2001 to 2011 [M]. Chna statstcal publshng house, [8]Leemans, R.; Eckhout, B.; Strengers, B.The consequences of uncertantes n land use, clmate and vegetaton responses on the terrestral carbon[j].science IN CHINA SERIES C LIFE SCIENCES -ENGLISH EDITION-, ISSN , Volume 45, Issue PART SU, , Page Count 16 [9]IPCC. Contrbuton of Workng Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change [M]. Cambrdge: Cambrdge Unversty Press, [10]IPCC. Summary for Polcymakers of Clmate Change 2007: The Physcal Scence Bass [M]. Cambrdge: Cam 2 brdge Unversty Press, [11] Natonal bureau of statstcs (NBS) GongJaoS. Energy statstcs knowledge handbook [S]. Natonal bureau of statstcs, 2006 [12]Zeng Xangang, Pang Hanshuang. The study on the stuaton, trend and ts reducton countermeasures for Chna's CO 2 emssons n each provnce [J]. Supplement Journal of Chna soft scence (top) :65. [13] Proc. of SPIE Vol