The research on the fairness of carbon emissions for China s energy based on GIS

Transcription

1 The research on the farness of carbon emssons for Chna s energy based on GIS Quxan Wang a,b,d, Zhqang Gao a,c, Jca Nng a, Qng-shu Lu a, Runhe Sh c,we Gao c a Yanta Insttute of Coastal Zone Research, Chnese Academy of Scences, Yanta, Chna; b Unversty of Chnese Academy of Scences, Bejng, Chna; c USDA UV-B Montorng and Research Program, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State Unversty, Fort Collns, CO, USA; d. Insttute of geography and plannng, Ludong Unversty, Yanta , Chna ABSTRACT Ths artcle frstly calculated Chna's energy carbon emssons of 30 provnces n 2010 wth the method of carbon emsson nventores of 2006 IPCC based on the data of Chna energy statstcal yearbook, and then calculated ts carbon emsson ntensty wth GDP data n Chna s statstcal yearbook. Next accordng to the formed formula the author calculated the EEI (Economc Effcency Index) and ECI (Ecologcal Carryng Index) and made some correspondng fgures wth the help of GIS to analyze the farness of the Chna s energy CO 2 emssons n 2010.The results showed that the dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons for energy n 2010 become lower from the Boha bay to the surroundngs and the west crcle provnces are wth the lowest energy carbon emssons. The ntensty dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons for energy n 2010 becomes hgher from southeast Chna to north Chna. The dstrbutons of EEI, ECI and for Chna s energy CO 2 emssons are qute dfferent from each other, and also wth ther comprehensve result. As to the farness of Chna s energy CO 2 emssons n 2010, we can say that the south provnces are better than those of Boha bay areas(except Bejng and Tanjng). Key words: farness, carbon emsson, Chna s energy, GIS, EEI, ECI 1. INTRODUCTION Snce the rapd economcal development depends much on energy n today s Chna, t has been the largest country n greenhouse gas emssons occupyng 10% of the whole World's amount [1]. As a responsble country, Chna offcally pledged to reduce ts CO 2 emssons per GDP (or CO 2 ntensty) by 40 45% from the level of 2005 and ncrease the share of non-fossl energy n prmary energy to 15% by 2020 n November 2009 [2]. To reach the goal, Chna wll assgn carbon emsson reducton task to each provncal admnstratve areas. So t s very mportant for us to study the farless of the carbon emssons for Chnese energy n provnces level. As to enhance the farness of ths work, the author constructed the carbon emssons equty evaluaton model whch ncludes economc and ecologcal contrbuton ndex for energy carbon emsson accordng to Lu Junyu [3]. Then wth the contrbuton ndex matrx, the author classfed the provnces Address correspondence to quxanpw@163.com Remote Sensng and Modelng of Ecosystems for Sustanablty X, edted by We Gao, Thomas J. Jackson, Proc. of SPIE Vol. 8869, SPIE CCC code: X/13/$18 do: / Proc. of SPIE Vol

2 nto four knds. As an mportant tool for the spacal study, GIS was often used to show spacal dstrbuton drrectly and clearly. In ths artcle the author also analyzed the four knds of carbon emsson wth GIS, n order to provde the bass references for the dfferentated regonal emsson reducton polces and emsson reducton targets of the state formulates. 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1. Data Descrpton The fossl fuels data used n ths paper are from fossl fuels Chna energy statstcal yearbook [4], Chnese GDP and other socal and economc data are from Chna statstcal yearbook [5], the carbon emssons parameters of energy are from lstng of IPCC 2006 [6]. As for the land use data used n the calculaton of ECI, the paper chose the NDVI data of 2010 from SPOT NDVI data wth 36 VGT-S10 fles. Then wth the DEM data from SRTM3 (Shuttle Radar Msson) assstng Topography, whose spatal resoluton s 90m * 90m, the paper processed after land cover classfcaton. 2.2 The calculaton methods of Chna's CO 2 emssons for fossl fuels Accordng to the fourth assessment report of IPCC n 2007, the man source of ncreased greenhouse gases s the burnng of fossl fuels (carbon doxde emssons n the burnng of fossl fuels s near 95.13% of the world total emssons n 2004) [7].And n the world wde the emssons nventory method of IPCC 2006 s often used, so n ths artcle we calculate Chna's energy carbon emssons n 30 provnces(excludng Xzang muncpalty for ts lost of related data)wth t. In order to avod the larger error made by the drect use of prmary energy, the data ths artcle used s from the energy statstcal yearbook of Chna statstcs of the eght class fnal energy data, ncludng raw coal, coke, crude ol, gasolne, kerosene, desel ol, fuel ol and natural gas, wth reference to the IPCC gudelnes [8] provdng varous fuel carbon content by default, and varous fuel CO 2 emsson factor per unt of energy of the default; To convert unts of varous fuel nto ordnary energy unt, ths artcle ntroduced low calorfc value used n energy statstcs n Chna [9]. The resultng computaton formula s as follows: Suggested emsson factor = carbon oxdaton factor * orgnal emsson factor *calorfc value n Chna That s EF = OXID * NCV (1) * EF co 2, I In whch NCV I means the net calorfc value unt mass or volume of the fuel (energy content), and s a natonal desgnated value. OXID EF s the oxdaton rate for fuel, and s the IPCC default value. co2, s the default CO 2 emsson factor for fuel of per unt energy,and s also the IPCC default value whch equals to default carbon content of fuel *44/12. On the bass of CO 2 emsson coeffcent for a varety of fossl fuels, emsson source actvty (that s, the fuel consumpton) was selected n ths paper to calculate the carbon emssons of fossl fuels. The specfc calculaton formula s as follows: Y = E F * EF (2) e j jy I In the fgure 2, Y e jy means the CO 2 emssons for fuels. F s the actvty ntensty, whch means the consumpton of the fuel I(whch s often calculated by mass or volume ) n the year Y of the provnce J. Proc. of SPIE Vol

3 2.3 Economc effcency ndex (EEI) From the pont of economy, f the proporton of carbon emssons n one provnce s greater than that of ts GDP, t belongs to the relatvely low economc effcency and t encroaches on the nterests of other provnces; on contrary, the provnce s wth hgher economc effcency. So n ths part, economc effcency ndex (EEI) manly takes the provncal GDP as reference to be calculated, whose formula s as the followng: EEI = the rate of economc contrbuton/the rato of carbon emsson EEI G G Y Y = (3) In whch G and G are regonal and natonal GDP respectvely; Y and Y are the carbon emssons of the provnce and the whole Chna respectvely. 2.4 Ecologcal carryng ndex (ECI) From the pont of ecology, the carbon snk n one provnce should be more than ts carbon emsson, so that ts ecologcal envronment can be n good condtons. If the rato of carbon emssons n one provnce s greater than that of ts carbon snks, we say that the provnce makes the other regons bear too much for ther carbon emssons mpact to the ecologcal envronment. On the contrary, t belongs to the relatvely hgh level of ecologcal capacty and contrbutes much to reduce the pressure of carbon emssons to the ecologcal envronment [3]. In ths vew, the author follows ts formula and calculates the ESI, the formula s as followng: Ecologcal carryng ndex (ECI )= the rato of ts carbon snk / rato of ts carbon emsson A Y ECI = (4) A Y n whch A and A are regonal carbon snk and natonal carbon snk respectvely, Y and Y are regonal carbon emssons and natonal carbon emssons respectvely. As to the carbon snk, the author selects forest land and grass land as the man carbon snk resources to calculate t accordng to the current domestc research status. The estmaton folume s as followng: n = = T s =1 (5) A n whch A s the total carbon snk of dfferent land use types; T s the area of dfferent land use types, whch ncludes forestry land area and grassland area. S s the carbon snk coeffcent for the knd of land use, whch s accordng to the research result of Fangjngyun etc [10] (the carbon snk coeffcent of the forest s 5.77 kg/m 2 y, and the carbon snk coeffcent of the grassland s kg/ m 2 y). 3. RESULTS ANALYSIS 3.1 Chna's energy carbon emssons and ts ntensty dstrbuton n 2010 Accordng to the formula of carbon emsson, the author calculated Chna's energy carbon emssons n each provnce frstly and then made a dstrbuton map lke fgure 1a wth ARCGIS From the fgure we can see that Shandong, Hebe, Jangsu and Laonng provnce are the n the top grade for ther carbon emssons. The second carbon emsson grade ncludes Henan, Guangdong and Inner Mongola three provnces. Whle the provnces wth low carbon emsson are manly dstrbutes n the west Chna, lke Qngha, Gansu, Nngxa, Chongqng and others. It s worth referrng that Bejng, Shangha and Tanjn are wth low carbon emsson. Proc. of SPIE Vol

4 Fg.1a. The dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons for energy n 2010 Fg.1b The ntensty dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons for energy n 2010 Next wth GDP data from Chna s statstcal yearbook of 2010, the author calculated the ntensty of Chna s CO 2 emssons for energy and made fgure 1b to show ther dstrbuton. From the fgure we can see that the provnces wth hgh ntensty for Chna s energy carbon emsson are manly n Shanx, Guzhou, Nngxa and Inner Mongola, whch are among the top four provnces n Chna. Whle Fujan, Guangdong, Bejng, Jangsu, Zhejang, Shangha and other provnces are n low carbon emssons ntensty, whch reflects ther low energy consumpton characterstcs. 3.2 The analyss on the farness of EEI for Chna's energy carbon emssons Accordng to formula (3), the author calculated the regonal EEI for Chna's energy carbon emssons based on ts GDP and mapped ther dstrbuton n 2010 as fgure 2a by ways of Arcgs10.0. From fgure 2a we see that EEI dstrbuton s very regular n Chna, whch ndcates that EEI reduces from southeast Chna to the northwest Chna. The area wth EEI > 1 manly dstrbuted n the southeast coastal provnces and Bejng cty. And next s Hebe, Anhu, Jangsu, Chongqng, Schuan and Guangx provnce. Whle the area wth EEI less than 1 manly dstrbuted n the north Chna lke Shandong, Shaanx, Gansu, Qngha, Laonng etc. The least EEI for Chna's energy carbon emssons dstrbuted n Xnjang, Inner Monga, Nngxa and Shanx provnces. 3.3 The analyss on the farness of ECI for Chna's energy carbon emssons Accordng to the research methods n 2.4 n ths paper, the author frstly attracted the area of forestry land and grass land from the land sat data base n 2010, and then calculated the dfferent ESIs of each provnce n Chna to shape Fg.2a. The EEI of Chna s energy CO 2 emssons n 2010 Fg.2b The ECI Chna s energy CO 2 emssons Fg.2c The farness of Chna s energy CO 2 emssons n 2010 fgure2b wth Arcgs10.0. From the fgure we can see that the ECI changes from east Chna to West Chna to south Chna Proc. of SPIE Vol

5 wth the regular of changng hgher and hgher, whch means that the ESIs n Laonng, Hebe, Shandong, Jangsu, Shaanx, Henan, Tanjn, Shangha and Bejng are n mnmum value wth ther ECIs less than 0.5, the next grade s made up of fve provnces ncludng Gansu, Shaanx, Anhu, Zhejang and Guangdong Provnce, whle the other provnces are n the good ecology condtons wth ther ECIs more than 1 as seen n the fgure 2b. 3.4 The analyss farness of Chna's energy carbon emssons Based on the economc effcent ndex (EEI) and ecologcal carryng ndex(eci) of carbon emssons for Chna s energy, ths paper dvded Chna s energy farness nto four parts. The standard s that the provnces wth both EEI and ECI hgher than 1 belong to part 1, the provnces wth EEI hgher than 1 and ECI lower than 1 belong to part 2, the provnces wth EEI lower than 1 and ECI hgher than 1 belong to part 3, the provnces wth both EEI and ECI lower than 1 belong to part 4. Thus the dstrbuton of the farness on Chna's energy carbon emssons has been formed accordng to the rules, as shown n fgure 2c. It can be seen that Guangx, Jangx, Schuan, Hunan, Hube, Hanan and Chongqng are seven provnces dstrbuted n southeast Chna area, whch belong to part 1 wth ther hgh economy effcency and hgh ecologcal capacty compatblty. The second part ncludes Bejng, Tanjn, Shangha, Guangdong, Zhejang, Jangsu, Fujan and Anhu eght provnces, whch dstrbuted n the mddle and lower reaches of the Yangtze Rver area n Chna. These provnces have hgh economc effcency n energy carbon emssons, but at the same tme ther energy carbon emssons produced a huge pressure on the ecologcal envronment from the pont of ecology. The thrd class area manly ncludes Qngha, Yunnan, Inner Mongola autonomous regon, Helongjang provnce, Gansu provnce, Guzhou and Jln provnce, whch manly dstrbuted n northern and central Chna wth ther energy carbon emssons adaptng to ecologcal envronment capacty hghly but ther economc effcent ndex low. Class 4 areas manly concentrated n the Boha rm regon, whch ncludes Shandong, Shanx, Laonng, Hebe, Henan, Shaanx, Xnjang and Nngxahuzu autonomous regon, whch show a dsadvantage n both economy effcency and ecologcal capacty and need to speed up ther adjustment of ndustral structure and energy consumpton structure n order to enhance ther regonal EEI and ther ecologcal capacty. 4. DISCUSSION 4.1 Chna's energy carbon emssons have some relatons wth ther economy n 2010 Accordng to fgure 1a, we can see that the top grade of energy carbon emssons are manly dstrbute n Boha bay area, whch ndcates that ther rapd economy development depends much on energy, except Bejng and Tanjn. Whle the provnces wth low carbon emsson manly dstrbutes n the west Chna, where the economy develops slower than east Chna. As to fgure 1b we could see more clearly that the provnces wth hgh carbon emsson ntensty lke Shanx are stll n the condton that the regonal economc development depends much on energy consumpton. At the same tme many coastal provnces wth hgh economc growth are now n low carbon emssons ntensty, lke Fujan, Guangdong, Bejng, Jangsu, Zhejang, Shangha and other provnces, whch ndcates that ther energy effcency are hgh wth ther technology progress, energy structure mprovement, and ther carbon emsson reducton are n a good stuaton. Proc. of SPIE Vol

6 4.2 The analyss method of farness on Chna's energy carbon emssons In ths artcle, the author analyzng the farness of Chna's energy carbon emssons manly used the method of Lu Junyu [3],only consderng ts economy and ts ecology capablty. But n fact as to the farness of the regonal energy carbon emssons, t can also consder the regonal populaton, regonal area and other condtons. And the farness of regonal energy carbon emssons can also be analyzed by a comprehensve ndex. In later work we can do somethng to realze t. 5. CONCLUSION From above analyss we can draw the conclusons as the followng: (1) The dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons for energy n 2010 become lower from the Boha bay to the surroundngs, and the west crcle provnces are wth the lowest energy carbon emssons. (2) The ntensty dstrbuton of Chna s CO 2 emssons for energy n 2010 becomes hgher from southeast Chna to north Chna. (3) The dstrbutons of EEI, ECI and for Chna s energy CO 2 emssons are qute dfferent from each other, and also wth ther comprehensve result. As to the farness of Chna s energy CO 2 emssons n 2010, we can say that the south provnces are better than those of Boha bay area (except Bejng and Tanjn). ACKNOWLEDGES The authors are grateful for the support from Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna ( , ), Ecologcal Innovaton & Breedng Project (Y , ) and USDA NIFA project ( ). REFERENCE [1] The energy and carbon emssons analyss n Chna's sustanable development group of Energy research nsttute, "The study on Chna s energy and carbon emssons scenaro," Journal of research and exploraton, (2007). [2]Hu J,"Presentaton at clmate change summt meetng n New York, " Sep. (2009). [3] Lu Junyu, Huang Xanjn, Dajng etc, The equty analyss of provncal energy consumpton carbon emssons on the tme and space scale, Journal of natural resources, 27 (12) : , (2012) [4] Natonal bureau of statstcs (NBS), [Chna energy statstcal yearbook 2011]. Chna statstcal publshng house, (2012). [5] Natonal bureau of statstcs (NBS). [Chna statstcal yearbook 2011]. Chna statstcal publshng house, (2012). [6] IPCC. [Contrbuton of Workng Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Clmate Change]. Cambrdge: Cambrdge Unversty Press, (2007). [7] Leemans, R.; Eckhout, B.; Strengers, B., The consequences of uncertantes n land use, clmate and vegetaton responses on the terrestral carbon, SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES C LIFE SCIENCES -ENGLISH EDITION-, ISSN , Volume 45, Issue PART SU, 01, Page Count 16,(2002) Proc. of SPIE Vol

7 [8] IPCC, [Summary for Polcymakers of Clmate Change 2007: The Physcal Scence Bass]. Cambrdge: Cam 2 brdge Unversty Press, (2007). [9] Natonal bureau of statstcs (NBS) GongJaoS, [Energy statstcs knowledge handbook]. Natonal bureau of statstcs. (2010) [10] Fang jngyun, Guo Zhaod, PaoShLong etc, The estmaton of Chnese terrestral vegetaton carbon sequestraton n 1981 ~ 2000, Scence n Chna, 5 (6) : (2007) [11]Zeng Xangang, Pang Hanshuang., The study on the stuaton, trend and ts reducton countermeasures for Chna's CO2 emssons n each provnce, Supplement Journal of Chna soft scence (top).6:65. (2010) Proc. of SPIE Vol