high RES penetration scenarios case studies for Germany and Europe - Middle East/North Africa

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1 high RES penetration scenarios case studies for Germany and Europe - Middle East/North Africa Wolfram Krewitt DLR Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment Stuttgart EMF Workshop Modeling Renewable Energy Technologies in IAMs August 5, 2009 Folie 1 > Vortrag > Autor

2 global renewable energy potential >> energy demand solar irradiation physical potential technical potential wind ,7 0,4 0,3 0,7 0,1 0,15 global primary energy demand 2006 (492 EJ) 1 Folie 2 > Vortrag > Autor

3 critical issues related to high RES shares availability of renewable energy resources match load and supply compliance with nature conservation and sustainability criteria Folie 3 > Vortrag > Autor

4 case study I: the German Lead Study 2008 Strategy to increase the use of renewables in Germany Policy targets: CO 2 reduction: 40% by 2020, 80% by (compared to 1990) increase energy productivity by 3% per year until 2020 renewable energies: - electricity: 30% by heat: 14% by primary energy demand: 50% by phase out of nuclear electricity generation by 2022 Folie 4 > Vortrag > Autor

5 renewable electricity potential in Germany MW winter week January 2006 summer week June CSP PV Wind offshore Wind onshore biogas biomass solid hydro reservoir hydro run-of-river Geothermal CHP Geothermal load hour Source: REMix Model, DLR Folie 5 > Vortrag > Autor

6 wind energy potential under nature conservation constraints wind speed m/s road network nature protection areas landscape conservation area forests biotopes agricultural areas (Baden-Württemberg, Southern Germany) visual sensitivity... Folie 6 > Vortrag > Autor

7 renewable combi-plant German load curve scaled down by 1:10,000 full supply by wind, PV, biogas and pump storage Folie 7 > Vortrag > Autor

8 renewable combi-plant electricity mix 2006 in MWh Import hydro biogas PV wind Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Folie 8 > Vortrag > Autor

9 electricity generation in the German Lead Study 700 gross electricity generation in TWh/a Import RES PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass CHP coal, gas Gas & oil (cond.) Lignite (cond.) Coal (cond.) Nuclear 85% renewables Folie 9 > Vortrag > Autor

10 German Lead Study 2008 differential costs of RES exploitation cumulated differential costs, billion heat -112 elect PV electricity excl. PV heat fuels Folie 10 > Vortrag > Autor

11 case study II: Sustainable Electricity and Water for Europe, Middle East and North Africa MED-CSP TRANS-CSP AQUA-CSP source: Trieb et al Folie 11 > Vortrag > Autor

12 solar resources in the Middle East/North Africa region a solar thermal power plant of the size of Lake Nasser (Aswan) could harvest energy equivalent to the annual oil production of the Middle East Folie 12 > Vortrag > Autor

13 concentrating solar thermal power plant with heat storage KONZENTRIERENDER collector field SONNENKOLLEKTOR solar heat (fuel) ENERGIE- thermal SPEICHER storage WÄRMEKRAFTpower block MASCHINE (optional) electricity heat Andasol 1, under construction Andasol 1 (50 MW), Spain: 7 full load hours thermal storage dispatchable solar bulk power Folie 13 > Vortrag > Autor

14 Gross Electricity Demand in Middle East and North Africa (source: DLR MED-CSP) Gross Electricity Consumption [TWh/y] Year Diff.to Trend Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Yemen UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman Syria Lebanon Jordan Israel Iraq Iran Folie 14 > Vortrag > Autor

15 Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa Folie 15 > Vortrag > Autor

16 CO 2 emissions from the EUMENA power sector (source: DLR TRANS-CSP) CO2-Emissions in Mt/y Year Avoided Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Wave / Tidal Biomass CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear Folie 16 > Vortrag > Autor

17 Trans-European High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid Solar Wind Hydro Geothermal Biomass HV-DC lines Folie 17 > Vortrag > Autor

18 Munich, July 13, 2009 Assembly of Desertec Industrial Initiative On July, 13 a group of European companies and the DESERTEC Foundation have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the aim to put the DESERTEC Concept into effect in the EUMENA Region. source: DESERTEC Foundation / Folie 18 > Vortrag > Autor

19 discussion significant reduction of energy related CO 2 emissions (~ 80%) in Europe is achievable without relying on nuclear and CCS exploitation of renewable energies needs to go along with structural and institutional adaptation of the supply system renewable energies are often not well represented in state-of-the-art energy system models: - renewable energy potentials are not fully used - often implicit and artificial constraints to address problem of integrating fluctuating RES sources new model developments are on the way to support better representation of renewables Folie 19 > Vortrag > Autor

20 case study III: Energy [R]evolution a sustainable global energy outlook DLR/Ecofys on behalf of and in cooperation with Greenpeace International European Renewable Energy Council Folie 20 > Vortrag > Autor

21 Energy [R]evolution - approach target oriented scenario: energy related global CO 2 in : ~ 10 Gt/a global phase out of nuclear energy economic growth according to IEA assumptions scenario building 10 world regions (according to IEA regions) (+ ~ 30 country scenarios) review of regional data (demand/supply structure, efficiency potential, RES potential, policy targets, etc.) stakeholder workshop with representatives from each world region (industry/academia/ngo) Folie 21 > Vortrag > Autor

22 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% global final energy demand business-as-usual 0% Africa China India Latin America Middle East OECD Europe OECD N America OECD Pacific Other Dev. Asia Trans. Econom. Folie 22 > Vortrag > Autor

23 energy efficiency potentials Energy [R]evolution scenario 450% 400% Total / remaining energy demand Transport Industry Other 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Africa China India Latin America Middle East OECD Europe OECD N America OECD Pacific Other Dev. Asia Trans. Econom. Folie 23 > Vortrag > Autor

24 electricity generation - Energy [R]evolution scenario OECD Europe China Folie 24 > Vortrag > Autor

25 global electricity generation Energy [R]evolution scenario TWh/a Efficiency Ocean Energy Solar Thermal PV Geothermal Wind Hydro Biomass Gas&oil Coal Nuclear % RES share Folie 25 > Vortrag > Autor

26 Energy [R]evolution CO 2 balance in (assumption: per capita emission rights of 1 t CO2 per year) Folie 26 > Vortrag > Autor