Wellbeing Engineering of Rural Smart Grids

Transcription

1 Wellbeing Engineering of Rural Grids Marcel J. Castro-Sitiriche University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology 1st International Workshop on System Dynamics, Big Data and Cloud Computing IAWSD 2015 Transformation for Sustainable Development Kenya School of Monetary Studies, Nairobi, Kenya Tuesday, January 13, 2015 Universidad de Puerto Rico Recinto Universitario de Mayagüez Colegio de Ingeniería

2 Sustainable Livelihoods reducing poverty by empowering the poor to build on their opportunities. Clare Short, Foreword in Diana Carney, Sustainable Livelihood Approaches: Progress and Possibilities for Change

3 Overview Responsible Wellbeing and Energy Poverty Technology Innovation: DC rural microgids Energy Meter Data Analytics Power Converters Agent Based Modeling Return-risk perception

4 Wellbeing Responsible Wellbeing and Threshold Hypothesis: Wellbeing vs Consumption Region 1 Poverty Region 2 Region 3 Responsible Wellbeing Affluence (excess) Chambers, R. (1997), Editorial: Responsible well-being a personal agenda for development. World Development 25: Appropriate Technology Responsible Wellbeing Max-Neef, M. (1995), Economic growth and quality of life: a threshold hypothesis, Ecological Economics, 15, (a) (b) Consumption Point (a): minimum necessary Point (b): threshold hypothesis

5 Wellbeing Responsible Wellbeing and Threshold Hypothesis: Wellbeing vs Consumption Region 1 Poverty Region 2 Region 3 Responsible Wellbeing Affluence (excess) Chambers, R. (1997), Editorial: Responsible well-being a personal agenda for development. World Development 25: Appropriate Technology Wellbeing Engineering Responsible Wellbeing Max-Neef, M. (1995), Economic growth and quality of life: a threshold hypothesis, Ecological Economics, 15, (a) (b) Consumption Point (a): minimum necessary Point (b): threshold hypothesis

6 Happy Life Years (HLY) Quality of Life Enabled by Rural Electrification: Wellbeing vs Consumption 79.3 LE 7.3 LS 62.6 HLY Region 1 Poverty Region 2 Region 3 Responsible Wellbeing Affluence (excess) Happy Life Years HLY Life Expectancy LE Life Satisfaction LS HLY = LE x LS/ LE 6.3 LS 50.8 HLY 66.7 LE 4.6 LS 39.1 HLY Point (a): minimum necessary level Point (b): threshold hypothesis level Point (i): absolute minimum as basic human right Point (ii): target level (i) (a) 400 kwh 60 kwh (ii) (b)? 2,000 kwh Annual kwh per capita

7 Happy Life Years Energy Development Index Countries 79.3 LE 7.3 LS 71.2 LE 6.3 LS 66.7 LE 4.6 LS Poverty Appropriate Technology Happy Life Years vs Per-Capital Electricity Consumption 49.2 Responsible Wellbeing LE LS HLY energy Kenya kwh Tanzania kwh 45.4 Level 1: basic human right - Madagascar Level 2: minimum necessary - Guatemala Level 3: target level Happy Life Years HLY Life Expectancy LE Life Satisfaction LS HLY = LE x LS/10 - Costa Rica Level 2 Level 1 Level 3 60 kwh 400 kwh Average Yearly Per-Capita Electric Energy Consumption (kwh) 2,000 kwh

8 Happy Life Years Energy Threshold Hypothesis: Switzerland 66.5 HLY 82.3 LE 7.5 LS Happy Life Years vs PerCapital Electricity Consumption Switzerland had the highest Happy Life Years in the 2012 Happy Planet Index Report (of 151 countries) Life Expectancy: 82.3 years Life Point Satisfaction: (b): threshold hypothesis 7.5 out of 10 in the - Switzerland Cantrill Ladder However, Switzerland was not the highest electric energy consumer by far (b) 7,372 kwh Per Capita Electric Energy Consumption in a year (kwh)

9 Energy Poverty Millions without Electricity 35 in Kenya 36 in Tanzania 31 in Uganda 70 in Ethiopia 10 in Rwanda 9 in Burundi 9 in Somalia Africa Energy Outlook, 2014

10 Country Electrification rate (%) Population without electricity (millions) Burundi Djibuti Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Somalia 10 9 Tanzania Uganda Eastern Africa Sub-Saharan 30.5 Africa Africa Africa Energy Outlook, 2014; World Energy Outlook, 2012

11 Technology Innovation: DC rural microgids Small Business Model: Solar Home Systems Autonomous DC Microgrid Clusters of DC Microgrids Clusters of DC Microgrids Autonomous DC Microgrid Solar Home Systems Energy Kiosks

12 Technology Product: Solar Home System : Meter Charge Controller Battery Remote Comm. 12 Vdc DC-DC Bidirectional Power Converter 380 Vdc Connection to DC Microgrid

13 Rural DC Microgrid 12 Vdc DC-DC Bidirectional Power Converter 380 Vdc Connection to DC Microgrid

14 Energy Scale Network of Microgrids G A P Energy Kiosks Rural DC Microgrid Solar Home Systems 400 kwh 60 kwh Yearly Average Per Capita Electric Energy Consumption

15 Rural Electricity Energy Ladder 300kW Grid Tied Remote Rural Grid 70kW Mini-grid 100kW 1kW 10kW 10kW 25kW Micro-grid 200W Solar Home Systems 200W 30W 80W Solar Home Systems

16 Electric Power Socio-Economic Geographic Environmental Data Analytics for Rural Electrification Renewable Energy Resource Power Demand Energy Storage Return on Investment Risk Assessment Social Impact Community Empowerment GSM Modem Population Density Renewable Power Distribution Distance to Grid Local Impact Household Health Community Resilience

17 Rural Electrification Pathways to Wellbeing Marcel J. Castro-Sitiriche 1,3, Jonathan Ozik 2 University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez 1, Argonne National Laboratory 2 Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology 3 Castro-Sitiriche, Marcel J., Jonathan Ozik; Rural Electrification Pathways to Wellbeing, Proceedings of the 6th International Conference of Appropriate Technology: Knowledge and Technology Transfer Session, Nairobi, Kenya, pages 54-63, November Sponsored by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation Decision and Information Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory

18 Complex Systems Approach Poor People s Energy Outlook, Practical Action, Access to Electric Energy Drivers of Wellbeing Millennium Development Goals Quality of Life Layard, R., A. Clark, and C. Senik. "The causes of happiness and misery, chapter on World Happiness Report, Helliwell, John, Richard Layard, and Jeffrey Sachs (2012).

19 Networks of Project Impacts Rural Electrification Key Areas (4) Drivers of Wellbeing (6) Millennium Development Goals (6) Autonomy Life Satisfaction Employment Competence Sense of Purpose Resilience Social Relationships

20 Rural Electrification for Earning a Living Access to energy and increased incomes are strongly linked. Incomes must be lifted to eradicate Poverty and Hunger (MDG1) Energy for Earning a Living Decrease the need for child manual labor Children must be free to attend school for universal primary education (MDG2) Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action. Decrease time needed for women in manual tasks such as wood collection Income generation potential for women to promote gender equality and empower women (MDG3)

21 Networks of Project Impacts 1) Earning for a Living 2) Lightning 3) Information & Communication Technologies, and 4) Cooling Income Work Social Capital Values Environment Health (mental and physical) MDG1 MDG2 MDG3 MDG4 MDG5 MDG6 Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action. Sense of Purpose Employment Competence Autonomy Social Relationships Resilience Life Satisfaction

22 Networks of Project Impacts 1) Earning for a Living 2) Lightning 3) Information & Communication Technologies, and 4) Cooling Income Work Social Capital Values Education Health (mental and physical) MDG1 MDG2 MDG3 MDG4 MDG5 MDG6 Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action. Sense of Purpose Employment Competence Autonomy Social Relationships Resilience Life Satisfaction

23 Networks of Project Impacts 1) Earning for a Living 2) Lightning 3) Information & Communication Technologies Technologies, and 4) Cooling Income Work Social Capital Values Environment Health (mental and physical) MDG1 MDG2 MDG3 MDG4 MDG5 MDG6 Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action. Sense of Purpose Employment Competence Autonomy Social Relationships Resilience Life Satisfaction

24 Networks of Project Impacts 1) Earning for a Living 2) Lightning 3) Information & Communication Cooling Technologies, and 4) Cooling Income Work Social Capital Values Environment Health (mental and physical) MDG1 MDG2 MDG3 MDG4 MDG5 MDG6 Source: Practical Action (2010). Poor People s Energy Outlook 2010, Rugby: Practical Action. Sense of Purpose Employment Competence Autonomy Social Relationships Resilience Life Satisfaction

25 Networks of Project Impacts Source: Layard, R., A. Clark, and C. Senik, "The causes of happiness and misery, chapter on World happiness report, Helliwell, John, Richard Layard, and Jeffrey Sachs (2012). weblink

26 Set of Variables to define the conceptual model A. Rural Electrification B. Drivers of C. Millennium Key Areas Wellbeing Development Goals A1. Earning for a Living B1. Income C1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger A2. Lighting B2. Work C2. Achieve universal primary education A3. Information & B3. Social Capital C3. Promote gender Communication equality and empower Technologies women A4. Cooling B4. Values C4. Reduce child mortality B5. Education C5. Improve maternal health B6. Health (mental and physical) C6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases D. Wellbeing Indicators D1. Autonomy D2. Life Satisfaction D3. Employment and Competence D4. Sense of Purpose D5. Resilience D6. Social Relationships

27 Next Step: Agent Based Modeling Case Study of Duchity, Haiti: Lack of Data to Build Develop Data from ongoing research project at Duchity, Haiti Develop Data from research at Ngarenanyuki and Leguruki, Tanzania Develop Data from Solar Home Systems Startup Company Use Data from other existing projects: Energy for Development Wellbeing and Poverty Pathways

28 Links: Wellbeing and Development Wellbeing and Poverty Pathways University of Bath (2014) Namibia and India Energy for Development Southampton University Kitoyoni Project, Kenya.

29 Remote Rural Community Without Electricity Access Layers of Data Geographic Information Responsible Wellbeing Levels of Electric Energy Consumption Level 1: Target Level Distance to Grid Electric Power Data Renewable Energy Sources Population Density Power Demand Capabilities Approach Complex Systems Modeling Livelihood Security Household Health Level 2: Minimum Necessary Renewable Energy Sources Power Local Impact Demand Environmental Household Health Local Impact Equity Sustainability Level 3: Basic Human Right Distance to Grid Population Density Adapted from: Chambers, Robert Editorial: Responsible Wellbeing A Personal Agenda for Development, World Development 25(11):

30 Model of Renewable Energy Policy and Investment Energy Policy Complex Systems Modeling Return-risk Perception Investment Adapted from: Wüstenhagen, Rolf, and Emanuela Menichetti. "Strategic choices for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and opportunities for further research." Energy Policy 40 (2012): 1-10.

31 Extended Model Modified Model of Renewable Energy Policy and Investment Energy Policy Stakeholder Engagement: ABMS Return-risk Perception Investment Rural Electrification Projects Pathways of Wellbeing Social Impact Evaluation: ABMS Quality of Life in Rural Communities

32 Motivation for Complex Systems Analysis Hypotheses to test: The Return-risk Perception for small remote rural energy investment is worse than the actual return-risk relationship. The impact of electrification projects on human wellbeing depends on many variables, most of them social, and each community has an optimum level of electricity consumption that will fall under the suggested defined levels.

33 University of Puerto Rico in Mayagüez Electrical and Computer Engineering GRACIAS - ASANTE marcel.castro@nm-aist.ac.tz Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology Sponsored by the: Fulbright Scholarship , Sabbatical GREAT-IDEA and CRWS NSF Project Grants # and # Universidad de Puerto Rico Recinto Universitario de Mayagüez Colegio de Ingeniería