Mugla University Clean Energy Research & Technology Development Center, Mugla, TURKEY

Transcription

1 Rising Opportunities for Photovoltaic Power Systems in Turkey Prof. Dr. Şener OKTİK Mugla University Clean Energy Research & Technology Development Center, Mugla, TURKEY International Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conference & Exhibition, ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, 1 1

2 Rising Opportunities for Photovoltaic Power Systems in Turkey ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, 2 2

3 TURKEY AT A GLANCE Area Km² Population (2008 Cencus) GDP (2008), GDP per capita (2008) (GDP,(PPP) ) Purchasing Power Parity Nominal World Bank) 950 billion US Dolars the 15 th largest economy 742 billion US Dolars the 17 th largest economy 13,920 US Dolars The 51st in the world leauge GDP growth (2008) 5,4% Industrial output growth (2008) -0.9% Unemployment rate (2008) 10.5 % Consumer price (inflation rate) (2008) 8.7% Foreign Direct Investment (2008) 22 billion USD ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 3 3

4 One of the world s fastest growing energy markets TURKEY & ENERGY Oil 31% Hydro 3,6% Coal 29% Natural Gas 32,% Renewable 8% Combustible Renewable and Waste 5,0% Geothermal 1,1% Solar 0,4% Wind 0,1% Total Domestic Production (Mtoe) Total Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) % ~ % ~ 8% Mtoe Turkey produced only ~26% of total primary energy consumption Energy Import ~80Mtoe (74%)) ~ 48 billion USD ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 4 4

5 TURKEY & ENERGY Mteo History Future Renewabels Hydro Nuclear 222Mtep (2020) Annual increase ~6% ~108Mteo (2007) Natural Gas Oil 50 Coal Total Primary Energy Consumption History and Forcast upto 2020 ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr

6 TURKEY & ENERGY To meet energy demand increase upto 2020 investment needed by different Energy sectors ~$130 billion Investment Needs of the Turkish Energy Sector Sector Investment ($ Million) Coal Exploration & Extraction Oil Natural Resources Water (DSI) Generation (EUAS) 458 New Generation Facilities Transmission 938 Distribution Total 128,574 ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, 6 6

7 TURKEY & ELECTRICITY ~42 GW 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0 % ~200TWh Annual changes in electricity consumption (%) The total power and gross electricity consumption increses between 1975 and 2008 Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, on Opportunities and challenges in the Turkish renewable energy market, August 2009 Since 2008 increase in demand for electricity has been slowing down (impact of global recession on Turkish Industry) ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 7 7

8 2008 Electricity Consumption by Source TURKEY & ELECTRICITY 2008 Installed Power by Source MW Conventional Thermal (Natural Gas, Coal and oil) Hydro Power Geothermal and wind and other renewables Total Energy Consumption by Source Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, on Opportunities and challenges in the Turkish renewable energy market, August 2009 GOOD NEWS FOR RENEWABLES! The total electricity generation by geothermal and wind power systems GWh (~ 0.% of total) GWh (~ 0.5% of total) Fuel Type Electricity Consumption (GWh) Natural Gas Domestic Coal Imported Coal Liquid Fuel Hydro Wind Geothermal Others Total % ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 8 8

9 Turkey TURKEY & ENERGY Continuies to grow in economy and industry (despite the global crisis) İn population size therefore there is a big pressure on power generation! Ratification of Kyoto Protocol (5th February 2009) (Turkey displayed its intention to step in among the decision makers of the post-kyoto period that will begin in 2013.) Solution is in renewables! Thus renewables is atracting significant investment in energy sector There is an increasing foreign interest in renewables in Turkey despite that the uncertainties in related laws and regulations. ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 9 9

10 Turkey TURKEY & ENERGY is in the accession process to the EU, has started alignments on energy issues of the acqui. Some of the short-term identified priorities in energy are; energy efficiency, renewable energy sources, development of the administrative capacity in the energy sectors. (The European Council Decision of 23 January 2006 on the principles, priorities and conditions contained in the Accession Partnership with Turkey) ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, 10 10

11 NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY OF TURKEY In the Ninth Development Plan of Turkey ( ): The target is to become globally competitive and to fully complete her coherence with the European Union Turkey submitted the first National Policy Paper on Climate Change in January CO 2 emissions in Turkey caused mainly by electricity production relied on fossil fuels and industrial sectors expected to increase significantly in the period leading up to Turkey s Policy to reduce CO 2 emissions focuses primarily on energy efficiency and renewable energy options. Over time, nuclear power is also expected to play an important role in decreasing CO 2 emissions ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 11 11

12 Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey Hydroelectric energy potential ( ~1% of the world and ~14% of the Europe s total potential) Hydroelectricity potential for Turkey: Theoretical Technical Economical 433TWh 216TWh 130TWh Currently Hydropower Plants; in operation MW (38% of the feasible potential) of 37 GW) under construction 3 962MW at the planning stage MW (41% of the 2009 energy investments budget of ~2billion US Dollars is allocated to the completion of hydropower plant projects and rehabilitation) In 2008 electricity production by hydropower exceeded 33TWh. 22% of total electricity production in % of total electricity production in ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 12 12

13 Geothermal potential (7 th in the world geothermal potential leauge) Megawatt-thermal (MW th ) MW e. Between 2000 and 2007 capacity for space heating; increased from 820 MWth to 1385 MWth (69%) electricity production capacity; increased from 20 MW e to 30 MW e (50%) (in 2007, 160 GWh electricity production, contributing 1.1% to primary energy consumption) In 2008 Turkey utilized only 7% of geothermal potential currently 62 MW e of geothermal power plants are under construction 2023 Target The geothermal electricity production capacity Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey 600 MW e ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 13 13

14 Wind Energy Potential The project Turkish Wind Energy Potential Atlas was completed in 2007 (The General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development, The regions with an annual average wind speed larger than 8.5m/s 5 GW potential The regions with an annual average wind speed exceeding 7m/s 48 GW potential By the end of 2008 the installed wind power capacity under operation under construction ( scheduled to be completed in 2009). projects completed a turbine supply contract. In the near future the total wind power Turkey is expected to exceed The total license applications exceeded EMRA granted a license for Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey MW MW MW ~1500 MW MW MW of these applications 2023 Target The capacity of wind power systems MW (currently 469MW ) PVPS@ 19th International Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conference & Exhibition, ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 14 14

15 Solar Energy Potential Turkey is between 36 and 42 N latitudes and an annual solar radiation changes; <1 400 kwh/m 2 per year in the Black Sea region ~ 2 000kWh/m 2 per year in the South East and the Mediterranean region. Turkey is geographically well located for solar energy applications Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey Mugla Annual Global Solar Radiation (kwh/m 2 -year ) Source: General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey & Development Administration of Turkey ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 15 15

16 Solar Energy Potential Solar Energy Potential Atlas has been completed, updating solar data by EIE in (The ESRI model was used which combines solar radiation as well as the topography and seasonal data of the location) The new Solar Energy Potential Atlas revealed that: Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey the annual average solar radiation is 1527kWh/m 2 per year (16% higher than the previous radiation data of 1311 kwh/m² per year) the annual average total sunlight period is hours (7.5 hours a day) (2.8% higher than the previous data of hours (7.2 hours a day)). Source: EIE, General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey & Development Administration, ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 16 16

17 Solar Energy Potential Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey The flat-plate solar collectors for domestic water heating Currently the total installed flat plate solar collector exceeds 12 million m 2 ( a 1 million m 2 annual production capacity) An area of km2 is feasible for investment in PV applications with a technical energy generation capacity of 380,000 GWh per year (56GWp Gas Powered station) ) Despite the solar energy potential there is almost no notable solar electricity production by photovoltaic power systems (PVPS) concentrated solar power (CSP) 19th International Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conference & Exhibition, ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 17 17

18 Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey There is no reliable data It is estimated that total installed PVPS capacity 4MWp - 5MWp (applications such as demonstration projects, romote communication towers, forest watch towers, highway signalling, meteorological stations etc.) There is no oficially announced target for PVPS, but it is awaited anxiously!!! by 2023 PVPS in Turkey The European Photovoltaic Industries Associtaion projection The Turkish National PV Platform projection 20 GW p 8-10 GW p ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 18 18

19 PV in Turkey Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey Since 1980, R&D work as well as demonstrative applications in PV field at: over 40 universities 3 research centres involving more than 400 researchers (Turkish Clean Energy Foundation data) Companies operating in the PV sector as; importers, wholesale suppliers, retail sellers, system integrators, project developers etc. So far there is only one an officially declared PV module producer in Turkey There are several investors in preparaion for whole value chain in PVPS The PV potential of Turkey has been appreciated by many investors and a highly competitive market is emerging in Turkey All we need is right policies and legislations on the renewables ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 19 19

20 Policy and legislation on the renewables Turkey enacted its first specific renewable energy law in 2005 The Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) for the Purpose of Generating Electricity Law No: 5346 (Official Gazette No: 25819, 18 May 2005)). RES in this Law includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass energy sources, channel- or river-type hydro power plants, or hydro power plants with a reservoir area of less than 15 square kilometers. The law is intended to help Turkey to meet its increasing electricity consumption In the recent update of the Electricity Market Strategy Paper The 2023 renewable resources target (including hydro) 30% (currently 20%) ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 20 20

21 Policy and legislation on the renewables Existing incentives to promote investment in renewable energy Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, on Opportunities and challenges in the Turkish renewable energy market, August th International Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conference & Exhibition, ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, 21 21

22 Policy and legislation on the renewables Existing incentives to promote investment in renewable energy Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, on Opportunities and challenges in the Turkish renewable energy market, August 2009 ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, 22 22

23 Policy and legislation on the renewables A new amendment to the Renewable Energy Law (5346) proposed on 11 November 2008 ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 23 23

24 The proposed amendment: Policy and legislation on the renewables Real persons and legal entities establishing a stand and grid grid connected renewable electricity power plant would have FIT incentive as follows Renewable energy resources for generating electricity First 10 years of operation Euro cent/kwh Second 10 years of operation, Euro cent/kwh Hydro power plant 7 none Wind power plant (onshore) 8 none Wind power plant (onshore) 12 none Geothermal, power plant 9 none Photovoltaic Power Plant Concentrated Solar Power Plant Biomass based power plant 14 none Waste products power plant 7 none The duration for the above options start from the initial operational date for existing and new plants. ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 24 24

25 What else in the amendment : Policy and legislation on the renewables 1- The FIT scheme starts from the date of operation of renewable energy systems (RES). The case for the RES, will be re-assed after Payments to the power suppliers shall be made by the Market Balancing and Settlement Center in TL, calculated with the Turkish Central Bank TL/Euro parity on the date of invoice. 3- In the case of hybrid RES based on intensified solar technologies and any other non-renewable technology, only the output of the former shall be eligible for the incentive scheme. 4- Benefiting from this feed-in tariff scheme does not preclude participation in the spot market. Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, on Opportunities and challenges in the Turkish renewable energy market, August th International Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conference & Exhibition, ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 25 25

26 What else in the amendment : 1- The FIT scheme starts from the date of operation of renewable energy systems (RES). The case for the RES becoming operational after 31 December 2015, will be re-assed after Payments to the power suppliers shall be made by the Market Balancing and Settlement Center in TL, calculated with the Turkish Central Bank TL/Euro parity on the date of invoice. 3- In the case of hybrid RES based on intensified solar technologies and any other non-renewable technology, only the output of the former shall be eligible for the incentive scheme. 4- Benefiting from this feed-in tariff scheme does not preclude participation in the spot market. Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, on Opportunities and challenges in the Turkish renewable energy market, August 2009 Policy and legislation on the renewables ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 26 26

27 A new amendment to the Renewable Energy Law proposed on 11 November 2008 Policy and legislation on the renewables 1. The final sub-commission discussions on the proposal sent to the upper commission. 2. The upper commission proposal send to the Turkish Grand National Assembly, June 2009, but it was withdrawn 3. The amendment to the law is a major driving force for PVPS deployment in Turkey ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 27 27

28 Conclusion Renewable Energy Potential of Turkey Turkey has great renewable energy potential and is keen to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels by taking renewable options. Wind sector is growing fast and there are several god practices in the learning curve of the generation of electricity by renewable resources. The target of 30% for renewables (including hyro) and 20GW for the wind power by 2023 is a good guide line for development and deployment of of PV in Turkey A discussion on the amendment to the Renewable Energy Law is heated up and is expected to be in the list of general assembly of the Turkish Grand National Assembly A highly competitive market is emerging in Turkey for the PVPS value chain. For PV electricity generation there will be opportunities for foreign investors to enter it, both as foreign direct investors or as partners with local companies holding Licences. ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 28 28

29 PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS AT MUGLA UNIVERSITY CAMPUS Muğla University Campus The largest PV Park in Turkey 40.3kWp BIPV façade (grid connected ) 25.6kWp 10.6kWp 15.0kWp 3.0kWp 16.0kWp kwp PVPS BIPV rooftop (grid connected) Test site ( grid connected) Hybrid PVPS Lamp posts (over 40 units) Tracking Systems ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, oktik@mu.edu.tr 29 29

30 Thank you for your attention! (and thanks to all who contributed!) ICC Jeju, Korea, November 9-13, 2009 Sener Oktik, 30 30