Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland Trends and Projections

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1 State of the Environment in Ireland Meeting the Main Environmental Challenges Workshop - 27 June Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland Trends and Projections Dr Maria Martin Climate Change and Environmental Research Programme

2 EPA s role on inventories and projections EPA was established as the competent authority for the National Atmospheric Inventory System in 2007 National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the EPA responsible for producing national emission projections EPA submits figures to EU and UN on an annual basis for inventories and EU biannually for projections EPA Team Dr. Eimear Cotter, Paul Duffy, Bernard Hyde Stephan Leinert and Emilia Hanley Coordination, quality assurance and quality control of data from wide range of sources e.g. SEAI, Teagasc, CSO, Department of Agriculture and Marine, ESRI

3 Greenhouse Gas Trends % -4% -9% 60 Mtonnes, CO 2 eq Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste

4 Sectoral Emission Trends Mtonnes, CO 2 eq Energy Residential Transport 18.9% Waste 1.4% Energy 21.8% Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Residential 12.7% Agriculture 30.5% 2010 Industry & Commercial 14.6%

5 Ireland s Emissions Trading Sector % -16% +1% -9% Mtonnes, CO 2 eq % drop in emissions from the Emissions Trading Sector between 2005 and

6 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections Mtonnes, CO 2 eq With Measures existing policies and measures With Additional Measures existing and planned policies and measures With Measures With Additional Measures

7 Kyoto Protocol Limit Mtonnes, CO 2 eq Kyoto Limit = Ireland is on track to meet its Kyoto commitment Projections indicate Mt CO 2 eq above KP limit over With Measures Kyoto Limit With Additional Measures Baseline Range represents two scenarios With Measures and With Additional Measures 7

8 EU 2020 Targets Overall target is 20% reduction compared to 1990 levels Separates the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between ETS and non-ets sectors over period ETS EU wide cap rather than national caps, reducing by 1.74% per annum to give an overall reduction of 21% by 2020 compared to No free allocation to Powergen sector Limited free allocation starting at 70%, reducing to 30% benchmark in other areas Sectors subject to carbon leakage receive 100% benchmark

9 Non ETS sectors Non-ETS sectors - transport, buildings, agriculture and waste - governed by the EU Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) Establishes annual binding greenhouse gas emission targets for EU Member States for non-ets sectors for the period The target for Ireland for non-ets sectors is to reduce emissions by 20% in 2020 relative to 2005 levels

10 EU Effort Sharing Decision 20% CO 2 eq, Mtonnes WM WAM Annual Limits 10

11 Sectoral Share non-ets sectors Residential 12% Industry& Commercial 10% Transport 27% Waste 3% 2020 Agriculture 48% Agriculture and transport - 75% of non- ETS sector emissions in 2020 Shows the important role that transport and agriculture will play in developing mitigation options to achieve 2020 targets 11

12 Transport EPA s Transport projection assumes Technological improvements improved fuel efficiency 10% biofuels in 2020 Achievement of electric vehicle target of 200,000 electric vehicles by 2020 More efficient traffic movements Further improvements are possible require behavioural changes and removal of barriers to new technologies

13 Agriculture Agriculture projection assumes Full achievement of Food Harvest targets Removal of milk quota by April Efficiencies included in line with Sectoral Road Map for Dairying Teagasc (2012) potential for further reductionsimprovements in the Economic Breeding Index, extended grazing and nitrogen efficiency - require behavioural changes incentivisation.

14 Flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Decision Carry forward from the following year a quantity of up to 5% of its annual emission allocation Carry over of excess emission reductions to the subsequent years Transfer part of the annual emission allocation to other Member States Use of credits up to 3% of a Member States 2005 emissions - additional 1% limit for some MS

15 Conclusions Ireland is on track to meet its Kyoto commitment taking into account the EU ETS and/or the potential use of credits already purchased by the State Ireland is projected to exceed its EU Effort Sharing Decision annual limits in and its 2020 target Now is the time to set both the right level of ambition and the right pace of transition to a low-carbon economy Need to focus on delivering currently planned policies and measures to achieve With Additional Measures scenario and identify new policies and measures Focus should be on domestic action agriculture and transport Domestic action can contribute to economic recovery, innovation and wider environmental benefits.