Energy Resources Are we running out of fossil fuels?

Transcription

1 Energy Resources Are we running out of fossil fuels? H-Holger Rogner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm 15 June 2017 ICTP, Trieste, Italy

2 Resources in a nutshell Occurrence of hydrocarbons and fissile materials in the earth s crust are plentiful There is enough carbon in the ground to fuel global warming Above ground investments unlock below ground resources Exploration Production capacity (incl. upgrading) RD&D in innovative technology Renewable energy flows are gigantic RD&D and investment required for the commercialization of technologies tapping renewable energy flows Resources per se pose no inherent limitation to meeting even rapidly growing future global energy need as long as timely upstream and/or technology investment is forthcoming

3 Resources are not they become 1) The quantity of carbon occurrences in the Earth s crust is but one consideration = neutral stuff Reserve assessments are the futile effort of estimating the economic portion of an unknown total (M. Adelman) Reserves are created by a mutual interdependence of Demand and markets Investment and technology (determine production capacity) RD&D and innovation (pushing frontier) Environmental and social constraints (policy) In many cases the low-hanging fruit has already been harvested 1) E. Zimmermann

4 Resource classification: The McKelvey Box Increasing degree of economic feasibility Economic Subeconomic Not economic Measured Identified Reserves Demonstrated Indicated Reserves Inferred Resources Unconventional and low-grade occurrences Undiscovered Resources Probability range (or) Hypothetical Speculative Increasing degree of geological assurance

5 Comments on the peak debates The peak oil (gas, coal, uranium) debate is a matter of definitions (boundaries): Conventional versus unconventional occurrences Minimum concentration Technology and innovation Economics (full costs including externalities versus alternatives) and prices Energy security Environment policy, esp. w.r.t. climate change Social preferences (demand)

6 Oil reserve discoveries & production Gbbl per year Discovery Production

7 Peak oil or undulating plateau? 120 Undulating plateau Million barrels per day (Mbbl/d) Conventional oil Past production 1.15 trillion barrels Conventional oil URR 2.3 trillion barrels Unconventional oil NGLs Conventional oil URR 3 trillion barrels

8 Oil based liquid fuel supply potentials and production costs Production cost (2005 $ per bbl) Yet to be produced Conventional Oil EOR Tar sands and heavy oil Oil shale Already produced Resources (EJ) Adapted from Farrell, 2008.

9 Oil supply cost curves Marginal extraction cost ($/GJ) GEA GEA update/ssp5 SSP Cumulative oil extraction (EJ)

10 Shale gas impact on natural gas prices

11 Historical production through 2016 Production 2016 Reserves Resources Additional occurrences [Gtoe] [Gt C] [Gtoe] [Gt C] [Gtoe] [Gtoe] [Gtoe] Conventional oil Unconventional oil > Conventional gas Unconventional gas > Coal Total FOSSIL

12 Fossil reserves, carbon contents & emission budget Gt CO Non-energy CO2 emissions Unconventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional gas Conventional oil Coal ~900 Gt left until 2100 Global CO 2 emission budget for < 2 o C at 66% probability 0 Cumulative CO 2 emissions Remaining fossil fuel reserves Source: Adapted from Rogner (2012) and Bauer et.al (2015)

13 Fossil resources, carbon contents & emission budget Gt CO 2 60,000 50,000 40,000 Unconventional gas Unconventional oil 30,000 Conventional gas Conventional oil 20,000 10,000 Coal Global CO2 emission budget for < 2 o C at 66% probability 0 Cummulative 1750 to 2014 Reserves Resources Source: Adapted from Rogner (2012) and Bauer et.al (2015)

14 Cumulative CO2 emissions with the goal of keeping global average temperature rise below 2 o C with >50% probability 2 o C with >66% probability As at Gt CO Gt CO Gt CO As at 2025 As at Gt CO Gt CO Gt CO Gt CO o C with >50% probability by 2100 As at 2011 As at Gt CO Gt CO As at Gt CO Exceedance: 189 GT CO 2

15 Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) Socio-economic challenges for mitigation SSP 5: Rapid Growth Taking the highway SSP 1: Sustainability Taking the green road SSP 2: Middle of the Road SSP 3: Regional rivalry A rocky road SSP 4: Inequality A road divided Socio-economic challenges for adaptation

16 SSPs and Fossil Resources Source: Bauer et.al, 2015

17 SSPs and Fossil Resources Source: Bauer et.al, 2015

18 Supply cost curves Production costs, $/GJ supply cost curve 2010 supply cost curve 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 EJ