Heartland Pat Steed Heartland Regional TPO Central Florida Regional Planning Council. December 9, presented by

Transcription

1 Heartland 2060 presented by Pat Steed Heartland Regional TPO Central Florida Regional Planning Council December 9, 2015

2 Heartland2060.com

3 Where Will Our Future Take Us? Developed land Conserved land Source: 1000 Friends of Florida

4 Heartland 2060 Population Change County/Area % Change % Change DeSoto 23,865 32, % 34, % Hardee 19,499 26, % 27, % Highlands 68,432 87, % 98, % Okeechobee 29,627 35, % 39, % Polk 405, , % 602, % Five County Region 546, , % 803, % Glades 7,591 10, % 12, % Hendry 25,773 36, % 39, % Seven County Region 580, , % 855, % Florida 12,938,071 15,982, % 18,801, % Nation 248,718, ,424, % 308,745, % Sources: 2009 BEBR and the 2010 Census Release at US Census Bureau

5 Heartland 2060 Consortium Grant Activities Natural Resource Database Transportation Model LUCIS Land Use Model Population Projections Employment Projections Scenarios Modeling Public Engagement 5-Year Strategic Action Plan

6 Education, Workforce, and Economic Development Topic areas: Business retention and attraction Opportunities for youth Meeting future industry skills needs Mix of employment opportunities Opportunities for children of the Heartland to learn and work locally Expand access to adult education, alternative learning, and lifelong improvement Task Force: Key Issues: Economic Diversification Infrastructure to Support Diversified Economy Early Learning, K-16, Lifelong Education Topic areas: Utilities (including broadband) Transportation Energy infrastructure Business climate Improve low graduation and achievement rates Creating a 2060 workforce today and tomorrow

7 Environment and Natural Resources Topic areas: Water supply Water quality Conservation, drought protection, and water storage Restoration and management Sustainability Way of life Changing markets Linkage to conservation Task Force: Key Issues: Water Sustainable and Viable Natural Systems Agriculture Energy/Climate Change Topic areas: Conservation (species and habitat) Management (fire, water, habitat, recreational) Integrity of natural systems (preservation and restoration) Future energy production Clean energy Carbon impacts Migration from the coast

8 Community Resources Topic areas: Task Force: Topic areas: Promote healthy communities Improve access to and quality of health care Expand health care industry Key Issues: Health Care Maintain existing strong sense of community Cultural Identity Maintain rural character with access to desirable urban amenities Expand cultural opportunities to increase retention of youth

9 Transportation and Land Use Topic areas: Balance in urban land uses and conservation land uses Transportation systems prevent fragmentation of natural systems Infrastructure supports sustainable agriculture Land use supports a sustainable economy and a sustainable environment Creating multimodal corridors Connecting the Heartland with other regions Moving freight by rail, roads, and air Moving people by rail, roads, and transit Task Force: Key Issues: Integrating with Natural Resources Planning Supporting Economic Development Ensuring Multimodal Connectivity Enhancing and Creating Sustainable Communities Topic areas: Land use to support 2060 economy Moving people to support 2060 economy Moving goods to support 2060 economy Linking transportation and land use to support 2060 economy Promoting energy efficient land use patterns Supporting redevelopment Housing affordability and sense of place within established communities Improvements to serve the needs of new communities

10 Linking Land Use & Transportation Connections between growth and development and transportation access Planning land use and transportation to sustain viable natural systems Enhancing mobility while preserving community character Linking visioning to land use and transportation planning

11 Goals of the Five-Year Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy 19 Goals Sorted by Pillar

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13 Metrics Used: Average Annual Wage High School Graduation Rates 8th Grade Math Performance Gross Domestic Product Bed Tax Collections Trade Exports And Imports Annual Building Permits Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Lane Mile Average Annual Unemployment Rates Employment By Industry Wages By Industry Millage Rates Registered Nonprofit Organizations (501 (C)(3) Only) Voter Participation Per Capita Income House Cost Index Persons Living In Poverty Population Counts, Estimates And Projections

14 Key Projects, Investments, and Opportunities

15 Where Will Future Jobs Be Located? Regional employment centers existing & new Economically productive rural lands Agriculture Renewable energy Mining Military

16 Regional Economic Engines as Futures

17 Principles Inherent in Each Future Heartland Core Values #1 priority Regional employment centers Emphasizes regional strengths Differs significantly from other Futures in measurable ways Minimizes negative impacts on environment Decisions based on good data

18 Economic Diversification: Employers clustered in healthcare and natural resources DeSoto Wal-Mart Distribution (502) DeSoto Medical Hospital (300) Peace River Citrus (140) Bethel Farms (87) Sorrels Bros Packing (75) Glades Moore Haven Correctional (219) Lykes Bros (100) Brighton Seminole Bingo (80) Glades Electric Co-op (65) A Duda & Sons (25) Hardee Florida Institute for Rehabilitation (550) Walmart (288) MOSAIC (277) C.F. Industries (175) Peace River Electric (137) Hendry US Sugar Corp (1,800) Southern Gardens (261) A Duda & Sons (250) Hendry Hospital Authority (140) Alico Citrus/Cattle (128) Highlands Florida Hospital Heartland (1,300) Highlands Regional Medical Center (500) Cross Country Auto Services (500) Wal-Mart (450) Medical Data Systems (387) Okeechobee Columbia Raulerson Hospital (365) Walpole, Inc. (300) Larson Dairy, Inc. (225) McArthur Farms, Inc. (160) Okeechobee Health (140) Polk Publix Super Markets (9,500) Wal-mart (5,100) Lakeland Regional Medical Center (4,600) MOSAIC (4,500) Winter Haven Hospital (2,500) Healthcare Sector Natural Resources Sector Source: Enterprise Florida, Top Private Employers by County.

19 Employment Projections by County Current Economy County Avg. annual growth ( ) Avg. annual growth ( ) DeSoto 13,572 16,365 17, % 0.5% Glades 4,598 5,292 5, % 0.4% Hardee 11,325 13,388 14, % 0.6% Hendry 18,788 23,068 26, % 0.8% Highlands 38,111 54,110 66, % 1.2% Okeechobee 14,413 21,455 25, % 1.0% Polk 257, , , % 1.4% Total 357, , , % 1.3%

20 Region: Comparison of Projected 2060 Employment by Industry Employment, in Thousands Energy Economy Trade Economy Current Economy Accommodation and Administrative and Arts, Entertainment, Construction Educational Services Farm Federal Civilian Federal Military Finance and Insurance Forestry, Fishing, and Health Care and Social Information Management of Manufacturing Mining Other Services, except Professional, Scientific, Real Estate and Rental Retail Trade State and Local Transportation and Utilities Wholesale Trade

21 Cluster Analysis TOMORROW Healthcare Advanced Manufacturing Energy Production Renewable Energy Manufacturing TODAY Agriculture Research & Development Agriculture Business & Technology Agriculture Alternative Fuels Logistics Services Life Sciences & Healthcare Tourism & Ecotourism

22 Employment Projections Employment projections (REMI PI+ using custom population projections) for each Future by County DeSoto Glades Hardee Hendry Highlands Okeechobee Polk Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Waste Management Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Construction Educational Services Farm Federal Civilian Federal Military Finance and Insurance Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities Health Care and Social Assistance Information Industry Management of Companies and Enterprises Manufacturing Mining Other Services, except Public Administration Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Retail Trade State and Local Government Transportation and Warehousing Utilities Wholesale Trade Year

23 Employment Projection Methodology Base employment projections used in Current Economy (built in REMI PI+ v1.5) Additional jobs - +2% of total employment - projected in specific industries based on Future : Energy Economy Trade Economy

24 Regional Economic Engines Advanced Manufacturi ng Energy Productio n Renewable Energy Manufacturing Research & Developmen t Agriculture Business & Technology Alternativ e Fuels Agriculture Logistics Healthcare & Life Sciences Tourism & Ecotourism natural resources & healthcare

25 A future that Resembles the Present. If we continue with business-as-usual, including healthcare, natural resources, and ecotourism, then we can expect our future to look like Following current and historical trends in: o population o employment o land use Continuing economic prominence of agriculture, healthcare, mining, warehousing, ecotourism, and service industries

26 Regional Economic Engines as Futures: Advanced Manufacturing Energy Production Renewable Energy Manufacturing Research & Development Agriculture Business & Technology Alternative Fuels Agriculture Logistics Healthcare & Life Sciences Tourism & Ecotourism generation & technology

27 A future that is Focused on Energy. If we focus on supplying technologies and goods that create energy and become energy exporters, then we can expect our future to look like Developing an alternative fuels industry based on agriculture Manufacturing and installing renewable energy technologies Using high-tech energy technologies to become an energy exporter Energy efficiency and conservation technologies

28 Regional Economic Engines as Futures: Advanced Manufacturing Energy Production Renewable Energy Manufacturing Research & Development Agriculture Business & Technology Alternative Fuels Agriculture Logistics Healthcare & Life Sciences Tourism & Ecotourism logistics & manufacturing

29 A future that is Making & Moving Goods. If we focus on employment hubs for manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing, then we can expect our future to look like Using current and future industrial areas and logistics and trade networks Maintaining high capacity transportation networks for moving goods Enhancing distribution of air cargo Connecting ports Establishing advanced manufacturing and warehousing facilities

30 Futures Modeling Employment projections are necessary to: Spatially allocate projected future employment Determine associated land use requirements Understand impacts to other aspects of scenario modeling (i.e. traffic analysis, housing demand, land use, infrastructure, etc.)

31 Example assessment of Future(s) Future: [ example Energy Economy ] < Brief description of the Future being assessed, such as: a future making and exporting energy and renewable energy technologies > Education, Workforce, & Economic Development Transportation & Land Use <Some qualitative comparison of this Future relative to the others> Environment & Natural Resources Community Resources Positive impacts: (opportunities) <Relative advantage #1> <Relative advantage #2> Negative impacts: (risks) <Relative disadvantage #1> <Relative disadvantage #2>

32 Commute Times of Workers in the 7-County Region Source: Census Estimates 8% 8% 28% 19% Less than 15 minutes 15 to 29 minutes 30 to 44 minutes 45 to 59 minutes 60 minutes or more 37%

33 Scenario Planning vs. Resilient Region Planning Future 1: Current Economy Our current path Heartland Future Visioning Future 2: Energy Economy Future 3: Logistics Economy Future 4: Health-based Economy Potential different futures: How are they different? What do we gain? What are the tradeoffs? Resilient Region: A tool for decision-makers: Where do all futures agree? Where do they disagree? Maximize potential opportunities? Minimize potential risks?

34 Population and Employment Projections As inputs to scenario modeling

35 Custom Population Projections Estimate 2011 BEBR (Medium-High Average) Custom Population Projections Extended projection Average annual change ( ) County April 1, DESOTO 34,708 40,000 50,000 53, % GLADES 12,812 15,800 21,900 23, % HARDEE 27,653 30,700 35,600 35, % HENDRY 38,908 43,200 52,400 54, % HIGHLANDS 98, , , , % OKEECHOBEE 39,870 46,400 58,300 61, % POLK 604, ,500 1,157,200 1,338, % urban county Six rural counties only 252, , , , % All seven counties 857,455 1,062,000 1,526,400 1,729, % rural counties entire region

36 Population Counts and Projections 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 DeSoto Glades Hardee Hendry Highlands U.S. Census 2011 BEBR (Medium-High Average) Population Projections Extended projection (based on 2011 BEBR Medium-High Average rates ) Okeechobee Polk

37 Custom Population Projections 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Average Annual Population Growth past vs. projections US Census ( ) US Census ( ) BEBR High ( ) BEBR Medium ( ) REMI PI+ ( ) standard projections BEBR Medium-High average ( ) Our method!

38 Transportation, Land Use and Natural Resources : Regional Systems Planning Efforts Existing Land Uses 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 14.9% 4.6% 5.6% 5.2% 67.0% Single Family Multi-Family Commercial Industrial Institutional Agriculture Conservation Mixed-Use Mining

39 CLIP Core Data Layers Strategic Habitat Conservation Areas Biodiversity Hotspots Rare Species Habitat Conservation Priorities Under-Protected Natural Communities Ecological Greenways Significant Surface Waters Natural Floodplain Wetlands Aquifer Recharge

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41 Sustainable & Viable Natural Systems: Systems Planning Efforts are Improving

42 Previous Long Range Transportation Network

43 Proposed Long Range Transportation Network

44 LUCIS and Scenario Modeling Land Use Conflict Identification and Subsequent Spatial Allocation of Future Development

45 LUCIS Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy Main Purpose Highlight where potential conflicts may occur in the future between competing uses of the land agriculture, conservation, urban Scenario planning and visioning tool Incorporates Land use suitability analysis a process of identifying the most appropriate location and distribution of future land uses Community and expert input to establish goals, objectives and sub-objectives prioritize model outputs in the final analysis

46 Review: Scenarios and Scenario Planning Present Business-as-Usual, Trend Scenario Alternative Future

47 Example Suitability Mapping Identify lands physically suitable for residential development Hazardous Sites Air Quality Flood Soils Noise Physically Suitable for Residential Development

48 Review: Alternative Future Scenario Modeling Ecological significance (examples) Water recharge Large mammal corridors Watershed protection Bird and animal habitat Etc. The weighting process happens here. Suitability becomes local Preference.

49 LUCIS: Area-based and Economic Weights Three weights combine: Land Use, Economic, and Technical

50 Combine into Aggregate Suitability Surface 10.5% 6.4% 15.7% 12.7% 11.1% 35.2% 8.3% Note: These are the actual weights for urban suitability * ( TIP: Follow the asterisk through the next few slides. )

51 LUCIS Analyzes Conflict Between the Three Major Land Uses *

52 Suitability Translates into Preference Preference Preference Urban example * Preference

53 Future Scenario Land Use Allocation in Iterations (an example)

54 Heartland 2060 to Cube Voyager

55 Heartland 2060 to ZONEDATA

56 Heartland 2060 Pat Steed Heartland Regional TPO Central Florida Regional Planning Council 555 East Church Street Bartow, FL P: x 130 E: psteed@cfrpc.org heartlandregionaltpo.org Heartland2060.com facebook.com/heartlandregionaltpo