Building low carbon scenarios for Belgium. International Conference on 2050 Calculator Taipei, TAIWAN, February 2015

Transcription

1 Building low carbon scenarios for Belgium International Conference on Calculator Taipei, TAIWAN, February 2015

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3 Low carbon strategies context UN Cancún Agreements (December 2010): The Conference of the Parties, 45. Decides that developed countries should develop lowcarbon development strategies or plans; EU European Council (February 2011): Reaching the EU objective, in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by compared to 1990 as agreed in October 2009 will require a revolution in energy systems, which must start now. European Commission (2011): Low Carbon Economy Roadmap BE Federal long-term strategic vision on sustainable developement (2013): Objective #31. Belgian GHG emissions will be domestically reduced by at least 80 to 95% with respect to their level in 1990.

4 Transition management and sustainable development Modelling Mapping initiatives Low carbon scenarios BE Webtool My BE (education) Macroeconomic, competitiveness and employment impacts Financing Distributive aspects Skills and jobs

5 Overview of government-led initiatives

6 Deep involvement of key actors For the identification of the levers and the definition of their ambition levels (1 to 4) Mainly at the expert level (from universities, public administrations, interest groups incl. sectoral federations, consultancy companies, ) Thematic workshops with limited number of participants Key success factors: careful selection of experts and robust analysis prior to the discussion For the definition of the scenarios: Mainly stakeholders (Business federations, Trade unions and environmental NGOs) Key success factors: balanced package of technical-storylines 3B-fibreglas AC-ANB ACV CSC 6 D. Wertz Willy Verbeke Philippe Cornélis 6

7 5 scenarios/storylines built on the basis of stakeholders consultations Spatial planning, working arrangements, social innovation and networks, reducing meat consumption, BEHAVIOUR SCENARIO (-80%) CORE SCENARIO (-80%) Overall feasibility, high ambition level but not technical maximum, TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO (-80%) Role of technologies, risks and opportunities, R&D, -95% GHG REDUCTION SCENARIO EU INTEGRATION SCENARIO (-87%) Stretch all levers to reach the higher end of the reduction range Transmission and back-up requirements, EU energy integration,

8 A set of 5 scenarios reaching 80 to 95% GHG emission reduction GHG emissions in Belgium (MtCO 2 e per year) Agriculture & others Building Transport % % % 24-80% -80% -95% -88% Industry Energy Reference Behaviour Core Technology -95% GHG EU integration

9 TWh/year TWh/year Scenarios allow to build ranges for most indicators 600 Total final energy demand 160 Total electricity demand Transport 12000% Transport 12000% 100 Transport 12000% 10000% Transport Max balanced 10000% 12000% Transport Transport Max balanced 12000% 12000% 10000% 267 Max balanced 8000% Reference scenario 10000% 8000% Reference Max Range balanced of the scenario 3 «-80% 10000% 10000% GHG» 60 Max balanced 204 Reference low carbon 6000% 8000% Core scenarios 6000% 8000% Core Reference scenario 40 Reference Reference scenario scenario8000% 4000% 6000% 8000% -95% Core GHG 4000% 6000% -95% Core GHG 6000% Core 2000% 4000% 6000% 20 EU -95% integration GHG 2000% 4000% EU -95% integration GHG 4000% EU integration 2000% 0% EU integration 2000% 0% % % TWh/yr TWh/yr TWh/yr TWh/yr % -95% GHG 0% 4000% EU integration 2000% 0% Source: Belgium OPEERA model (Climact, VITO) Max balanced Max balanced Max Reference balanced scenario Reference Max Range balanced of the scenario 3 «-80% GHG» Max balanced Core Reference low carbon scenarios Core Reference scenario Reference Reference scenario scenario -95% Core GHG -95% Core GHG Core EU -95% integration GHG EU -95% integration GHG 0 EU -95% integration GHG 2010 EU integration EU integration

10 SECTORAL FINDINGS

11 OVERALL FINDINGS

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