Photovoltaics: Where from Here? Miroslav M. Begovic Georgia Institute of Technology

Transcription

1 Photovoltaics: Where from Here? Miroslav M. Begovic Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, January 30, 2012

2 Introduction In the 1 st Quarter of 2011, renewable energy generated production has surpassed nuclear production in the USA: Nuclear Production: QBTU Renewable Production: QBTU (11.43% of total) Solar power accounts to 1.16% of renewable production Growth of renewables in Q1 2011: 25.82% yr/yr y Growth of solar energy in 2011: 104.8% Source: Monthly Energy Review by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), July 2011

3 Simple Energy Level Diagram CONDUCTION BAND CONDUCTION BAND VALENCE BAND VALENCE BAND Anode P N Cathode Source: William J. Potscavage, Jr., Georgia Tech

4 Operating Principles Absorption of light to create a free electron (hole) Anode P N Cathode Source: William J. Potscavage, Jr., Georgia Tech

5 Operating Principles Absorption of light to create a free electron (hole) Diffusion of electron (hole) to PN junction Anode P N Cathode Source: William J. Potscavage, Jr., Georgia Tech

6 Operating Principles Absorption of light to create a free electron (hole) Diffusion of electron (hole) to PN junction Crossing of electron (hole) across the PN junction Anode P N Cathode Source: William J. Potscavage, Jr., Georgia Tech

7 Operating Principles Absorption of light to create an electron (hole) Diffusion of electron (hole) to PN junction Crossing of electron (hole) across the PN junction Anode P N Cathode Collection of holes at the anode and electrons at the cathode Source: William J. Potscavage, Jr., Georgia Tech

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9 Self healing Smart Grids Demand side management Resilience Reliability bl Accommodate all generation and storage options Enable electricity markets Run more efficiently Enable higher penetration of intermittent generation sources

10 Distributed generation Radial feeder DG-equipped feeder Wind Battery Fuel cell Genset Customers PV module Microturbine Source: Pat Iannucci, The Distributed Utility: Concepts and Opportunities

11 European Super Grid: Vision

12 Super Grid: US Vision Source:

13 Load Demand and Electricity Prices

14 Pricing by Technology Source:

15 Load Profiles and Electricity Prices Source:

16 PV Module Price Reduction with the Growth of the PV Industry Mod dule Price (2007 $) $ $10.00 $1.00 $ % Learning Rate Since 1975 Module price decreases by 20% for every doubling of cumulative production For grid parity 1975: 0.4 MW p 2010: ~ 40GW p 2015: 100 GW p 35% growth Cumulative Shipments (MWp)

17 LCOE Roadmap for Grid Parity LCOE vs Module Cost and Efficiency 2015 BOS = $2/W for 20% Module, Phoenix AZ Insolation Grid Parity: 10 /kwh /kwh Modul le Efficiency (%) Module Cost ($/Wp)

18 Installed PV System Cost Chronology

19 Energy Payback Times Source:

20 Promising Photovoltaic Materials and Technologies Single Crystalline Silicon (mono-si) Cast Multi-crystalline Silicon (mc-si) Ribbon Silicon (Ribbon Si) Amorphous Silicon (a-si) Copper Indium (Gallium) Diselenide (CIGS) Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Amorphous Si 3.9% Other Crystalline Si 6.7% Ribbon Si 3.4% CdTe 1.1% CIS 0.3% Single crystal Si 28.6% III-V or GaAs Multi junction Concentrator cells Organic solar cells Multicrystalline Si 56.0% MARKET SHARE

21 How Will We Reduce Cost? Low Risk Approach to Lower $ / W Sources of Module Cost Processing 20% Si Substrate 50% Source: Benner & Kazmerski, IEEE Spectrum, Module Assembly 30% Use less silicon Reduce wafer thickness from 250µm to 100µm Use fewer process steps Use traditional screen printing Improve efficiency i Create 20% cells without exotic materials

22 Typical Summer Load Profile (CA) Solar can serve >30% of peak generation needs California ISO Hourly Load Profile (Summer) Solar Potential Benefits Fuel and capital savings Predictable & less volatile Emission savings Carbon hedge Transmission cost mitigation Source: Load - CAISO, System load Aug 14, 2008 Assumption: Solar - Solar generation: 15GWp (DC), 18% utilization

23 Ecological Impact of PV System - Multi-objective ecological constrained economic dispatch - Effect of PV generation on other generation types(coal, natural gas, ) Min Cost Cost in $ CO 2 emissions in tons Min CO Min SO Min NO X NO emissions i i in i tons t x SO emissions in tons

24 WEATHER AND LOAD IMPOSED DESIGN CONSTRAINTS DAILY PRODUCTION 0.35 WEEKLY PRODUCTION MWh/DAY DAILY MONTHLY PRODUCTION 0.3 WEEKLY MONTHLY TIME [DAYS] 400

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26 Impact of Renewables on the Grid Four major impacts of variable generation (VG) on the grid: 1) Increased need for frequency regulation 2) Increase in hourly ramp rate 3) Increase in uncertainty of net load 4) Increase in ramp range MW Load Wind Net Load Ramp Range (Increases in this two-week period from 19.3 GW/day to 26.2 GW/day) 0 1 Apr 8 Apr Uncertainty in wind output 15 Apr Variation in wind output increases net load increases uncertainty in net load ramp ate (Increases in this period from 4,052 to be met with conventional MW/hour to 4,560 MW/hour) generators Source: Paul Denholm, NREL

27 Source: PNNL [27/10]

28 Conclusions Snapshot of the PV technology with a view of achieving grid parity in the near future Impact of PV generation with respect to operational aspects in distribution networks Energy savings, ecological, and generation cost Potential cost impacts on critical peak load: Potential cost impacts on critical peak load: opportunities for peak load, carbon and water footprint reduction