Solar Electric Systems The Future is Bright

Transcription

1 Solar Electric Systems The Future is Bright Wisconsin Renewable Energy Summit February 14, 2008 Niels Wolter Focus On Energy

2 I fully understand that energy is going to help determine whether or not this nation remains the economic leader in the world. George Bush October 12, 2006

3 Global Energy Issues Increased cost of fossil fuels Reduced availability of fossil fuels? Fossil energy price shocks Global climate change Particulate mater, acid rain, ozone formation, etc. Trade deficit for imported fuels Geo-Politics and energy Iraq, Iran, Russia, Venezuela Increasing cost of energy infrastructure Long timeline need to install power sector infrastructure nuclear plants, refineries, transmission lines, tar sand refining, carbon sequestration, etc.

4 Cost of Conventional Power 2005, Duke Energy, company told regulators it wanted to spend $1 billion to build one 800- megawatt coal fired power plant. November 2006: $1.5 billion May 2007: $1.8 billion February 2008: $2.4 billion When complete:?

5 Carbon Taxes Bank of America (February 12 th 2008) Assesses the cost of carbon in their loans to power companies currently estimating between $20-$40 per ton of CO 2 In WI 2.4 lbs CO 2 are emitted per kwh (source: PA Consulting) Resulting in carbon taxes of: $20/Ton CO cents/kwh $40/Ton CO cents/kwh

6 Oil Coal Gas Fission Biomass Hydroelectric Solar, wind, geothermal Greening The Terawatt Challenge Source: BP & IEA Oil Coal Gas Fusion / Fission Biomass Hydroelectric Solar, wind, geothermal Terawatts 220 M BOE/day 0.5% The Basis of Prosperity 20 st Century = Oil 21 st Century = Renewables Terawatts MBOE/day

7 Solar Energy Equivalent to an eight inch layer of oil covering the earth each year 100,000 Terawatts strike the earth, human s use about 15 Terawatts

8 Energy Stored in the Earth trillion watt hours TOTAL Coal 6,000,000 Petroleum 2,000,000 Natural Gas 1,500,000 Oil Shale 1,500,000 Uranium 235 1,500,000 Tar Sands 800,000 Renewables in Perpetuity trillion watt hours/year Direct Solar Radiation 350,000,000 Wind 200,000 Ocean Thermal 100,000 Biofuel 50,000 Hydroelectric 30,000 Geothermal 10,000 Tidal 1,000 SOURCE: Steve Heckeroth, 2006

9 The Solar Opportunity Source: European Renewable Energy Council, Energy Revolution, January 2007

10 Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand Nevada P109-G

11 Solar Modules in Algerian Desert Power the World

12 Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future Niels Bohr I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. --Thomas Watson (1943) Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value. --Marshal Ferdinand Foch There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home. --Ken Olson (1977) Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? --Harry M. Warner (1927) This telephone has too many shortcomings.. The device is inherently of no value to us. --Western Union (1876)

13 "The best way to predict the future is to invent it" Ray Lane venture capitalist, Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield and Byers, 2007

14 Solar power technology is still in the stone age. Ronald R. Cooke, Cultural Economist

15 Photovoltaic Materials

16 Generations of Photovoltaics First generation - silicon wafer-based Current efficiency ~ 18% Second generation - thin-film technology Reduced cost reduced materials usage large-area processing Efficiency (today) ~ 10% Third-generation technology Forecasted efficiencies 20% to 65% Other Concentrated solar electric

17 Three Generations of Solar Power Source: University of New South Wales

18 Solar Photovoltaic Material Efficiency Trends

19 Crystalline Silica Cells Crystalline - poly and single crystalline PV material 250 microns thick Over 95% of market Sliced off ingots or pulled out of melt Module production cost ~$2.20/watt 180 watt Evergreen module

20 Worlds Most Efficient Commercial Module SunPower SPR 315 Electron pickup wires on the back no shading 19.3% efficiency

21 Panel and Silicon Supply Shortage Today $4.80/watt Should be ~$3.00/watt >50% Shortage Surcharge Last forty years: each doubling production cost declines 20%

22 Silicon Shortage Driving Innovation Silica Use Efficiency 2003: 15 grams Si/watt 2006: 7.5 grams Si/watt (SunPower) 3 grams/watt goal (Evergreen Solar) Figure from SunPower

23 Silicon Module Prices 2007 Costs (Rogol, Feb 2008) Silicon: ~$1.20/watt Production: $1.50/watt Production Cost: ~$2.70/watt Wholesale Price: $3.80/watt Profit: ~$1.10/watt (30%) Retail Price around $4.80 Margin: $1.00/watt (20%)

24 Photon International, Feb 2008 Silicon Cell production 2007: 3.6 GW 2010: > 23 GW Annual growth: ~ 45% Analyst: Michael Rogol

25 Second Generation Amorphous Silica Uni Solar CIGS Honda, NanoSolar CdTe First Solar Source: Frauhofer Institute Organics or Dye Sensitized R&D stage

26 Amorphous Silicon Atoms disordered from optimal crystal positions PV material 1 to 3 microns thick Silica: Module efficiency 7% to 10%

27 CIGS (or CIS) or Copper Indium Galium Diselenide Based on the semiconductor compound Cu(In,Ga)Se2 Absorbs light extremely efficiently N-type semiconductor: typically CdS, ZnS, or In 2 S 3 Mo as back contact ZnO as transparent front contact Current module conversion efficiency ~10%

28 Source: Flisom AG CIGS

29 CIGS Solar Electric Systems

30 NanoSolar Copper-indium-gallium-diselenide 430 megawatt/year plant Shipped first module Dec 2007 Going to solar farm in Germany target "free field" solar-generation Secretive Efficiency 6% to 11%? Production cost $0.99/watt CEO $2/watt systems 25-year warranty Source: EBay

31 NanoSolar CIGS Printed cells using ink is of CIGS nanoparticles Printing is fast, simpler, cheaper and allows for high-yield Metal foil substrate - cheap and is 20 times more conductive than stainless steel "Roll-to-roll processing" - metal foil substrate that are meters wide and miles long Heat lamp treatment/fixing The cell has 15 layers of different materials, as thin as 20 nanometers Source: NanoSolar

32 Cadmium Telluride -Thin film Cadmium hazardous Telluride rare First Solar LLC Production cost $1.12/watt 10.5% efficiency Module supply contracts: 3.4 gigawatts through 2012 Production Forecast

33 Concentrator PV Plastic lenses up to 500 sun concentration Sharp Solar prototype 1 cm 2 of solar cell = 500 cm 2 without concentration Cell efficiency ~ 20% (goal 40%)

34 The Third Generation All in R&D: dye-sensitised photochemical, quantum/nanotechnology solar cells Silicon Based Nanostructures Up/Down Conversion Hot Carrier Cells Hot Lattice Thermoelectric Cells nanostructure

35 Other Nano Photovoltaic Technologies Nanowires on carbon-nanotube fabric Nanoantennas, absorb energy in the infrared spectrum mounted on plastic Nanometallic wires mounted on conductive glass Nano silicon spheres surrounded by hexagonal reflectors Nanocrystals providing a huge surface area in which sunlight can be caught NanoPower Windows integrating films of silicon nanoparticles on glass surfaces. Source: nanoarchitecture.net

36 Dye Sensitized Solar Cells Source: RWE-Schott

37 Dye Sensitized Cells (Graetzel type) Artificial photosynthesis Using an electrolyte - titania (a pigment used in white paints and tooth paste) and ruthenium dye sandwiched between glass. Light striking the dye excites electrons which are absorbed by the titania to become an electric current

38 Dye Sensitized Cells Potential for low cost: 60 cents/watt (US DOE) Bio degradable Reduced longevity Proto types 4% efficient Highest reported 6.5% efficient Works well in low light conditions

39 Solar Forecasts Ray Kurzweil, National Academy of Engineering Report, Feb 2008: energy from solar will be competitive with fossil fuels - it could happen within five years". Solar will meet 100% of our energy needs in 20 years

40 Solar Forecasts The solar photovoltaic industry will achieve grid parity in under five years. Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst, Deutsche Bank Securities, February 2008

41 Stephen O Rourke, senior analyst Deutsche Bank Securities (New York City)

42 Solar Forecasts First Solar (Feb 2008) : All but guaranteeing electricity at $ per kilowatt hour by 2012 Sun Power and SunTech Power (Fall 2007): Promised their investors to reduce the cost of solar electric systems by 50% by 2012

43 Photon International, Feb 2008 Forecasts Annual price declines of 7% to 8% per year between 2007 and 2010 (or 20% over three years) Cost of production will not determine prices but supply and demand Analyst: Michael Rogol

44 Photon International, Feb price forecasts for installed systems: North American (non CA) ~$6.75/watt Today ~$8.00/watt California commercial: ~$5.00/watt Germany crystalline Si solar fields: ~$4.00/watt Germany non-si solar fields: ~$3.25/watt Analyst Michael Rogol

45 Power Purchase Agreement Financing

46 Kohl s Solar Electric Systems About 75 Systems in CA Three systems in WI Kohls buys the power from SunEdison 15 year Power Purchase Agreement For less than grid power SunEdison: owns, finances, installs, and maintains California Kohl s store Source: Kohl s

47 Venture Capital and Solar VC investment in the solar industry has gone from a few deals in 2004 to more than $1B in 2007 This phenomenal investment growth is spurring innovation and efficiency in every sector of the booming $18B solar industry.

48 Venture Capital Intensive High Concentration PV: Sol3g, Heliostat, Sol Focus, Amonix, CIGS: NanoSolar, MiaSole, DayStar Thin film silica: Applied Materials, Oerlikon, Sterling Dish: Stirling Energy Systems Concentrated Solar Thermal: Ausra, Solel, Bright Source, esolar,

49 The Power of Solar 1 kw of modules Generates enough power to drive a Tesla Roadster 16 miles/day The new gas tank

50 Solar Powered Ground Sourced Heat Pump (GSHP) Study on 1320 ft 2 home built to code in Sun Prairie Vertical well GSHP - used conservatively 2 kw of solar electric meets all GSHP heating and cooling needs

51 Opportunities for Wisconsin Training and Education Tech Colleges, Universities, Midwest Renewable Energy Association Research and Development UW Madison, Materials Science & Engineering Manufacturing Systems: Racks, balance of systems components, inverters modules?? Interconnection: metering, monitoring, charging systems, etc.

52 Services Opportunities for Wisconsin Installation/construction Maintenance Insurance Project finance Legal Accounting Marketing Information dissemination

53 Niels Wolter Focus on Energy Renewable Energy Program (888) Material in this presentation does not imply a recommendation or endorsement of any product or service, by the Focus on Energy Program or any subcontractor of Focus on Energy. The Focus on Energy Program, or any subcontractor of Focus on Energy, is not responsible for inaccurate or incomplete data in this presentation.