Global Mega Trend. By Dr. Pailin Chuchottaworn President of IRPC Plc. December 1, 2010

Transcription

1 Global Mega Trend By Dr. Pailin Chuchottaworn President of IRPC Plc. December 1, 2010

2 Our Precious Planet What would be happened with our planet in the next 20 years? 2

3 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 3

4 World Population Explosion The global management of nine billion people who demand health, food, work, shelter, and security will be the most daunting challenge any civilization has ever faced. said by Dr.James Canton, American futurist. 1 We probably cannot feed the planet without advanced, accelerated agriculture to head off mass starvation in the future. 2 Source: 1) 2) 4

5 Longevity or Life Expectancy Shifting from Sick-Care to Personal Wellness In 2010, 10 % of the world's population will be above 60 years and by 2050, its expected to hit 21 %. Improving the quality of life is the key criteria to a longer and healthier living and this needs to be incorporated into the personal life, living environment, working environment and social spaces. And also, the medical Technology is advance. Source: Frost & Sullivan,

6 World Population Explosion India 2008 GDP/Capita ~1,000 $US JP 2008 GDP/Capita ~40,000 $US 6

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8 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 8

9 Global Warming : A Dynamic Model Earth Biosphere :> Optimum for population of 4 billion. > Current for population is about 7 billion. 9

10 Global Green House Gas Emission (CO 2 ) Source: David Reed,

11 Rate of Green House Gas Emission Per Person Per Year Rate of GHG Emission per person per year Average: Global ~ 6.8 Ton/person/year Thailand ~ 5 Ton/person/year Source: CO2 per Capita, Energy Information Administration (EIA) 11 11

12 Global Warming How has temperature evolved over the past 160 years? 12

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14 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 14

15 Fresh Water Supply Asia is home to 700 million people who drink unsafe water and two billion who do not have adequate sanitation. 13 Source: 13) 15

16 Who Moved My Water? THE FORECAST DRY IN ASIA, AFRICA AVAILABLE WATER RESOURCES CATASTROPHICALLY LOW VERY LOW LOW AVERAGE HIGH VERY HIGH 16

17 Demand Continues To Rise Water use can be roughly divided in 3 areas : urban water management, agriculture and industrial production. There are major regional differences in water use : 1. Worldwide, 10% of water flows into domestic use, 70% to agriculture and 20% to industrial production 2. Developed countries : around half the water consumption is destined for industrial uses. 3. Developing countries : the biggest consumer of water at around 80% is agriculture. 17

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19 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 19

20 Health & Life Science Standard of Living vs. Environment 20

21 2008 Beef & Veal Per Capita Consumption Summary VS. GDP Unit: Kg/Person Beef & Veal per Capita GDP Unit: Billion $USD 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: World Bank, 2008 and United States Departments of Agriculture,

22 Health & Life Science: Nutrition By 2030 food production will have been revolutionized yet again. The genetic modification of crops and livestock will produce seeds that can grow in the harshest of conductions and meat that can be grown on its own in factories, without a host animal. 9 Source: 9) 22

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24 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 24

25 Renewable Energy 25

26 Renewable Energy 26

27 Renewable Energy Photovoltaic (PV) Photovoltaic (PV) solar energy conversion can be cost-competitive with any low-emission electricity generation technology by The properties of electrically-conducting nanotechnology plastics to bring down the cost of producing solar-driven energy generation system. 10 Source: 10) 27

28 Renewable Energy Another ideas of renewable energy SUNSCREEN blocking just 1.8 per cent of the incident energy in the sun s rays would cancel out the warming effects produces by a doubling of green-house gases in the atmosphere. Scientists are eyeing the JET STEAM, an energy source that rages night and day, 365 days a year, just a few miles above our heads. If they can tap into its fierce winds, the world s entire electrical need could be met. 11 Source: 11) 28

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30 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 30

31 Materials: Light Weight Composites 31

32 Materials: Light Weight Composites 32

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34 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 34

35 Technology: Nanotech Molecular nanotechnology (MNT) when fully developed will, theoretically, allow us to construct almost anything from the atomic level up, including food, water, computers and even nano-scale robots which will carry drugs to the precise site at which they are needed in the human body. 12 Nanoscience represents a redical change in material science, drug, devices, and manufacturing. Nano-based products could change everything, reducing functions down to 100,000 times smaller than a human hair. Total nanotech investments worldwide were more than $10 billion in By 2008, the nanomarket may grow to more than $32 billion worldwide. Nanomaterials will drive the near-term market growth, while nano-devices will dominate future growth. 13 Source: 12) 13) 35

36 Technology : Nanotech Revolution 14 Enabling Nanotech Revolution: Photovoltaics: drop cost by 10 to 100 fold 2. H 2 Storage: light weight materials 3. Fuel Cells: drop cost nearly 10 to 100 fold 4. Batteries and super capacitors: improve performance 5. Photo catalytic: reduction of CO 2 6. Direct photo conversion of light + water to produce H 2 7. Super-Strong, lightweight materials to drop cost 8. Nanoelectronics to revolutionize computers, sensors and devices 9. High current cables: replace aluminum and copper wire 10. Thermo chemical catalysts to generate H 2 from water: reduce operating temperature 11. CO 2 mineralization schemes 12. Nanoelectronic-based Robotics with AI: maintenance solar structure in space 13. Nanomaterials/Coatings: drop cost of deep drilling 14. Nanotech lighting: replace incandescent and fluorescent light Source: 16) 36

37 Technology : Technological Change Super-Intelligence or strong AI: the system are robust and extremely useful and our modern world couldn t run without them. The software could do problem solving a thousand times as fast as humans do. 17 Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. 18 Artificial Intelligence Singularity Source: 17) 18) 37

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39 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 39

40 Contents World Population Explosion Climate Change Water Crisis Health & Life Science Renewable Energy Materials Technology Global Social 40

41 Global Transformation of Social Structure Pre-modern Globalization Modern Phase of Globalization Contemporary phase of Globalization Country A B C A B C Public Private People Solid Modernity Liquid Modernity Source: Dr. Suvit Maesincee,

42 Intelligence Required Managing Change in the Liquid Phase Modernity Mental Model Systemic Structure Leading Change Pattern/ Trends Event Reacting to the Change Anticipating Change A Clear Enough Future Alternate Futures A Range of Futures True Ambiguity Level of Complexity Source: Dr. Suvit Maesincee,

43 Local Global Internal issues are becoming externalized while external issues are becoming internalized Globalization of Risks Climate Change Financial Crisis Pandemic Diseases Global Risks Terrorism Mass Production of Refugee Extreme Poverty Genocide Civil War Local Global Source: Dr. Suvit Maesincee,

44 The Habits of Mind 44

45 Human Behaviors Mind Mapping 45

46 Last Word...

47 Thank You 47

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