January 13, :00 pm to 4:30 pm Saint Paul, MN

Transcription

1 MPCA Air Quality Dispersion Modeling Seminar January 13, :00 pm to 4:30 pm Saint Paul, MN aq-ppt5-12

2 Agenda I. Welcome & Announcements Moderator Ruth Roberson 1. Introductions, Purpose and Objectives of the meeting Shannon Lotthammer & Frank Kohlasch II. MPCA Updates 1. Air modeling related developments (e.g., State, Federal, Other) Melissa Sheffer 3. Update on Agency Transformation to Tempo Ruth Roberson 4. Working Practice Memoranda Update Jim Sullivan, Steve Irwin & Daniel Dix 5. State & Federal Air Policy Update Melissa Kuskie 6. Environmental Review updates Kim Grosenheider & Chuck Peterson III. II. Seminar 1. Developing a proposal to use the USTAR function in AERMOD Sergio Guerra, PhD, Wenck and Associates, Inc. 2. Improving Minneapolis Air: An MPCA pilot project. Jeff Smith, MPCA Industrial Division Director BREAK (2:45-3:00) 1. InMAP: A reduced-complexity, variable grid resolution model for PM 2.5 transport and transformation. Christopher Tessum, PhD, University of Minnesota 2. Modeling through the ages: A look back and a look forward. Mike Hansel, Barr Engineering, Inc. IV. Open Discussion (4:00) V. Closing Comments Shannon Lotthammer, Frank Kohlasch & Shelley Burman

3 Purpose and Objectives Objectives of the meeting Update modeling community on state modeling guidance changes. Present new modeling concepts and approaches.

4 MPCA Updates

5 Air Modeling Related Developments Melissa Sheffer

6 Revisions and updates to Appendix W 2015 R/S/L Workshop and 11 th Modeling Conference Currently, the tentative dates are: June 8-9 for the 2015 R/S/L (day and a half) June for the 11 th Modeling Conference The 11 th Modeling Conference will serve as a public hearing for the proposed rulemaking. MPCA would like to get feedback, so we are able to make representative comments. Updates to AERMOD and AERMET (released early 2015) The revised version of AERMOD will still accept met data processed with AERMET version 12345

7 Meteorological Data - Update MPCA is currently in the process of updating our pre-processed meteorological data from AERMET version to the latest version of AERMET. We are currently running AERSURFACE for each of our stations. Next steps will be processing the stations with AERMET (either version or the new update from EPA) for the years of Anticipated that the updated met files will be available on our website in March Met data will not be processed with any non-default or BETA options. 7

8 Background Concentration Workgroup There have been 3 sub-workgroups with ongoing work: 50 th percentile/indiana study MPCA is currently conducting case studies with the Indiana data Representative monitor Working practices/technical guidance memo Truncated mean approach

9 Update on Agency Transformation to Tempo Ruth Roberson Lisa Thorvig Project Leader

10 MPCA IS Transformation Project Agency-wide project to: provide more online services, standardize our business processes and move to a modern information system platform Not simply a replacement of DELTA

11 What does it mean for the Air Dispersion Modeling Process? Modeling data housed in a Database Easier Access to Modeling Analysis files More consistency between modeling analysis tracking More complete data refined parameters for more facilities, e.g. nearby sources spatial parameters for sources, buildings, property boundaries Better Data quality Online Service Regulatory Services Portal for Modeling Protocol Submittals Based on existing forms

12 MPCA e-services 12

13 MPCA e-services Air Dispersion Modeling 13

14 Air Dispersion Modeling Service 14

15 MPCA e-services 15

16 UAT Timeline High Level View 16

17 Tempo Training Internal Users External Users once service goes live 17

18 Questions? 18

19 Background concentration workgroup & Working Practice Memoranda Jim Sullivan, Steve Irwin & Daniel Dix

20 Background Concentration & Working Practices Working Practices for review now Hydrogen sulfide screening value Representative Monitor Working practices to be released in July PM 2.5 Increment Screening Approach Temperature Heat Index

21 July Working Practices PM 2.5 Increment Screening SIL Approach still valid for screening out of a cumulative modeling analysis for the NAAQS. New generic (interim) approach to address screening for PM 2.5 increment. Step-by-step instructions with tables to fill out and flow charts to lead through acceptable justifications.

22 July Working Practices PM2.5 Increment Screening Contributions 1) Concentration modeled for the proposed project. 2a) Change in modeled concentration between MaSBD and MiSBD. 2b) Change in modeled concentration between the MiSBD and Present Net Concentration Change (Sum of 1, 2a, and 2b) Total increment available on the MaSBD 3) Background Change Table 14. Accounting of steps Hour H2H H1H Annual Concentration/ Average Changes (μg/m 3 ) Concentration/ Changes (μg/m 3 ) 9 4

23 July Working Practices Temperature Humidity Index Reality-Based (Meteorological) Modeling utilizing actual temperature/humidity observation data to better correlate potential peak shaving days Use Emission Factors/Operational Scalers with greater detail in modeling setup Permitting language to apply with operation requirements: operating hours, monitoring and recordkeeping.

24 July Working Practices Temperature Humidity Index Meteorological sites processed for THI calculations ( Adding 2013 & 2014 soon) *Winter time version in Heating Degree Days/Freeze Dates -- in progress ROX HOC KINL TVF CDD VWU ORB CKN ELO FSE GNA BJI EVM HIB BFW PKD JKJ DTL PWC GPZ TWM AIT KDLH DYT FFM BRD MZH JMR AXN LXL ROS VVV CBG MOX KSTC ANE DXX KMIC BDH PEX MVE HCD KMSP KRWF KFCM KSTP GYL LVN RGK MML ULM ONA KMKT PQN JYG OWA KRST OTG FRM AEL AUM FKA

25 State & Federal Air Policy Update Melissa Kuskie

26 Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) EPA actions Final designations technical assistance documents: December, 2013: monitoring and modeling Proposed SO 2 Data Requirements Rule: April 17, 2014 Final expected mid-2015 MPCA continues to monitor/revise SO 2 SIP Existing SO 2 maintenance areas Current projects re-model using same protocols Anti-backsliding SIP?

27 SO 2 Proposed Data Requirements Rule Designations Modeling Modeling deadlines State agency s modeling protocol due January 15, 2016 Modeling/designation recommendations due January 13, 2017 EPA proposes modeling analyses be based on either: Actual 1-hour SO 2 emissions from the most recent 3 years, or Federally enforceable allowable emissions Continued verification of attainment For areas designated attainment based on monitoring data or modeling of allowable emissions, no new requirements For areas designated attainment based on modeling of actual emissions Annual emissions of modeled sources Updated modeling every 3 years

28 Ozone, PM 2.5, Regional Haze 2015 Ozone Standard Proposal: November 25, 2014, between 65-70ppb Final expected: October 1, 2015 Regional Haze SIPs: Revisions due July 2018 EPA considering extension of deadline 2012 PM 2.5 Standard: Designations final December 18, 2014 EPA released draft ozone, PM 2.5 and regional haze modeling guidance December 3, 2014 Seeking comments by March 13, PM-RH_Modeling_Guidance-2014.pdf

29 Environmental Review Updates Kim Grosenheider & Chuck Peterson

30 Criteria Pollutant Air Assessment Does the project release any air emissions? No Air assessment is complete. Yes Are any of the emissions significant? No Air assessment is complete. Yes Is the background + SIL >90% of the NAAQS? No Is the project impact greater than the SIL? No Air assessment is complete. Yes Total facility refined modeling is required Yes Note: Significant air emissions are activities or processes that release emissions other than those listed in Minn. R. 7007/1300 Subp. 2 or Subp. 3. This is different from PSD Significant Emission Rates.