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1 HyMeX (*) overview June 2010 *Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean experiment Outlines HyMeX organization 3. Highlights g of year 2010 & one word about Medex 1

2 One word about contours = number of targeted soundings MEDEX a brief summary of DTS 2009 map by A. Jansa cases (132 entries) 484 additional RS 50 RS sites at 06 & 18 using ECMWF DTS (PREVIEW) squares = density of targeted events Radiosounding site 2009 gravity centre One word about MEDEX a brief summary of DTS 2009 Issue of the targeting g methods consistency: ensemble based techniques may significantly differ from adjoint based techniques Both 2008 and 2009 seasons focused on Med events OSEs and impact studies are planned at Météo-France but have not been carried out yet : issue of the E-AMDAR data to distinguish from routine ones. Verification should be done in both global and limited area models. Verification area shall be the initially defined areas of interest as well as slightly larger areas to account for any trajectory drift. 2

3 The Mediterranean basin: Motivations, societal stakes A nearly enclosed sea surrounded by very urbanized littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate A unique highly coupled system ( Ocean-Atmosphere-Continent) A region prone to high-impact events related to water cycle: Heavy precipitation, flash-flooding during fall Severe cyclogenesis, strong winds, large swell during winters Droughts, heat waves, forest fires during summers Water resources: a critical issue Freshwater is rare and unevenly distributed in a situation of increasing i water demands d and climate change (180 millions people face water scarcity) The Mediterranean is one of the two main hot spot regions of the climate change Need to advance our knowledge on processes related to water cycle within all Earth compartments, to progress in the predictability of high-impact weather events and their evolution with global change. Scientific topics to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events by monitoring and modelling: the Mediterranean coupled system (atmosphere-land-ocean), its variability (from the event scale, to the seasonal and inter-annual scales) and characteristics over one decade ( ) in the context of global change to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity. 3

4 Scientific topics Key questions: What is the variability of the components of the water cycle (precipitation, evaporation, runoff, transport, etc) within a context of global climate change? What are the impacts on the water resources? Better understanding of the long-term water cycle over the Mediterranean basin: variability and trend Mesoscale convective systems Slow-moving frontal systems Coastal orographic precipitation Scientific topics Better understanding of the intense events: processes and contribution to the trend Mediterranean cyclogeneses Regional winds (Mistral, Bora, Tramontana) Key questions: What are the ingredients and their interactions necessary to produce an extreme event? What will be the evolution of intense events with the global climate change? 4

5 Scientific topics Monitoring the vulnerability factors and adaptation strategies facing highimpact weather events Key questions: How to reduce the impacts of the extreme events and climate change? Implementation strategy: observation Nested approach necessary to tackle the whole range of processes and interactions and estimate budgets Enhanced existing observatories and operational observing systems in the target areas of high-impact events: budgets and process studies (+ dedicated short field campaigns) Current operational observing system and observatories over the whole Mediterranean basin: budgets (data access) EOP LOP SOP? Special observing periods of high-impact events in selected regions of the EOP target areas (aircraft, R/V, balloons, ): process studies 5

6 Implementation strategy: observation NEI = North-Eastern Italy DA = Dinaric Alps EV = Evros CR = Crete IS = israel VA = Valencia CA = Catalogna CV = Cévennes-Vivarais LT = Liguria-Tuscany CI = Central Italy BA = Balearic CO = Corsica LA = Lampedusa The three Target Areas, with the hydrometeorological and atmospheric sites for the SOP/EOP NW Med TA Implementation strategy: observation SOP1 in order to document: - Heavy precipitation and Flash-flooding - Ocean state prior the formation of dense water SOP2 in order to document: - Dense Water Formation and Ocean convection - Cyclogenesis and local l winds a specific NW Med TA presentation is available on the HyMeX website? 6

7 Implementation strategy: observation SOP1 in order to document: - Heavy precipitation and Flash-flooding - Ocean state prior the formation of dense water SOP2 in order to document: - generation and spreading of the newly formed dense water - severe winds SE Med TA Implementation strategy: observation AdriaticTA SOP0 - Dense monitoring of hydrological processes, heavy rainfall, flash floods SOP1 - Ocean preconditioning phase in the Adriatic Sea to control generation and spreading of the newly formed dense water in the two targeted areas SOP2 - Dense water formation and ocean convection, strong cyclogenesis connected with severe local winds (Bora and Jugo) Temporary schedule, still in discussion SOP0.1 SOP1.1 SOP2.1 SOP0.2 SOP1.2 SOP2.2 7

8 The HyMeX modelling strategy: Implementation strategy: modelling past trends multi-components regional climate models climate change existing new process modelling, parameterization development, novel data assimilation systems HR EPS existing existing interannual variability probabilistic HPE & cyclo. probabilistic hydrological response. scales convective scale hydrological models ocean atmo hydro land deterministic high-impact weather impact / product Implementation strategy: modelling (1/5) The HyMeX modelling strategy: The improvement of convective-scale deterministic forecast systems to increase the prediction capabilities of Mediterranean high-impact weather events. An unique high-resolution database to validate these new NWP systems: microphysical properties (polarimetric radars, aircraft measurements), marine boundary layer characteristics & air-sea fluxes measurements (buoys, research vessels), novel HR moisture measurements: GPS delays onboard ships, radar refractivity, water vapour from lidar, etc. 8

9 Implementation strategy: modelling (2/5) The HyMeX modelling strategy: The design of high-resolution ensemble prediction systems dedicated to the study of the predictability of Mediterranean heavy precipitation and severe cyclogenesis. HyMeX aims at quantifying and rating the different sources of uncertainty at various scales that impact the forecast of Mediterranean intense events. To achieve this, multiscale and nested ensemble forecast systems, possibly based on mesoscale ensemble data assimilation techniques will be designed within HyMeX. Implementation strategy: modelling (3/5) The HyMeX modelling strategy: The coupling of these ensemble forecast systems with hydrological models to issue probabilistic forecast of the impact in terms of hydrological response. Advances in knowledge of the hydrological and hydraulic responses, as well as of the soil water content before and during the precipitation events, should help to improve these hydrological models. 9

10 Implementation strategy: modelling (4/5) The HyMeX modelling strategy: Within HyMeX, multi-components regional climate models dedicated to the Mediterranean area: ocean, atmosphere, land surface & hydrology, will be set-up or improved and validated. HyMeX aims at studying interannual variability, past trends & future climate change Implementation strategy: modelling (5/5) The HyMeX modelling strategy: The development of... new process modelling, parameterization development, novel data assimilation systems...for the various Earth compartments of interest. For example, improvement of air-sea flux parameterizations or development of data assimilation in cloud and precipitation systems are major objectives of HyMeX and part of the observation strategy is designed to serve these objectives. 10

11 HyMeX organization Main Phases and associated documents White Book International Science Plan (ISP) International ti Implementation ti Plan (IIP) Phase 1 Phase 2 We are here June nd HyMeX Workshop June rd HyMeX Workshop Sept LOP EOP SOP HyMeX Preparation HyMeX Operations HyMeX organization Structure Chair: P. Lionello Vice-chair: P. Drobinski Odile Roussot Laurent Labatut Chair: V. Ducrocq 11

12 HyMeX organization Participants to the Working Groups and Task Teams More than 350 Working Group or Task team members from more than 20 countries See the HyMeX website for a list of ISSC members, WG coordinators and Task Team leaders HyMeX organization International links Links with : The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) HyMeX is endorsed by the WWRP Joint Scientific Committee and the WWRP/THORPEX programme The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) of WMO Preparatory work (selection of sites and preparation of data) for HyMeX being a Regional Hydrological Project of GEWEX/CEOP The HyMeX MED-CORDEX regional climate activities are included in WCRP/CORDEX ESF/MEDCLIVAR Joint workshops (within 3rd HyMeX workshop and Plinius conference) MISTRALS (Mediterranean Integrated Studies at Regional And Local Scales) In France, HyMeX is inserted in a programme cluster (MISTRALS) about the monitoring and evolution of the habitability in Mediterranean (sponsors: CNRS/INSU, Météo-France, INRA, CNES). Other MISTRALS programmes: Charmex, Mermex, Termex, Sicmed, Paleomex, Biodivmex 12

13 HyMeX highlights 2010 Organization and Programme documents International Science Plan (ISP) Draft 2.1 reviewed by the ISSC, WG comments on draft 2.2 Version 2.3 of the HyMeX Science Plan has been released (public access) Content : Motivations Research Themes (state of art, key science issues) Program strategy State of coordination with other entities and programmes Comments are welcome, to be sent to hymex@cnrm.meteo.fr Next version should be ready by the 6 th of September 2010 HyMeX highlights 2010 Organization and Programme documents Set-up of the Task Teams for the implementation of the programme Task Teams for Observations (TTO) Transversal Tasks (TS) in support to TTO and TTM TTO1 - Sounding of the atmosphere TS1 Data base TTO2 - Hydrological and soil measurements TS2 - Satellite products TTO3 - Measuring surface fluxes over land TS3 - Hydrometeorological sites and HO TTO4 - Sounding the ocean TS4 atmospheric supersites and sites TTO5 - Measuring air-sea fluxes TS5 - Aircraft operations TTO6 - Measuring land-sea fluxes TS6 Ocean operations TTO7 - Monitoring vulnerability factors TS7 real time modelling forecast during EOP/SOP TS8- SOP Operation coordination Task Teams for Modelling platforms (TTM) TTM1-High-resolution (coupled-ensemble) modelling platforms for intense TTM2- Multiscale modelling of the continental surfaces TTM3-Regional Climate model (Atmosphere-Ocean-Land) TTM4-Data assimilation First draft of IIP available for about half of Task Teams Second draft should be prepared for 6 September

14 Beginning of HyMeX LOP: September 2010 HyMeX highlights 2010 LOP kick off Metadata base and database set-up, including - Drafting of a data policy, - Development of the data catalogue software - Progressive feeding with in-situ observations from operational networks, satellite and model metadata and data Facilitated access to operational data North-African GPS data, rain gauge data from operational services, etc Enhancement of long-term observations - Enhancement of instrumentation over hydrological super-sites sites and pilot-sites, - Glider transects (within MOOSE observatory), - Ferry lines equipped for ocean and atmosphere measurements (SOOP), already one equipped for surface ocean measurements -Etc Modelling and monitoring of the water cycle long-term evolution Regional climate modelling (partly in relation MED-CORDEX) HyMeX highlights 2010 Workshops Already four international workshops have been organized in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 for elaborating the HyMeX program => 5 th HyMeX Workshop in Balearic Islands, tentative schedule: May See for more information about the workshops and HyMeX 14

15 Thanks for your attention