Low Carbon Scenarios for India to 2050

Transcription

1 COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy -Focus on Country-Specific Scenario Analysis- December 3, 25 Montreal Low Carbon Scenarios for India to 25 P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA)

2 Drivers of Future Emissions Population Conventional Drivers Population Economic Growth Energy Resources Population in billions High Medium Low GDP index (2=1) Technologies Economic Growth 5 year CAGR % % % 1 year CAGR High 4.5% Medium 4 % Low 3.5% Emerging Drivers for Developing Countries Transition Processes (Lock-ins) International Labor Markets Human Capital Knowledge Flows Governance (Risks, Investments)

3 Indian Emissions Scenarios Centralizati on Market integration Integrated Fragmented IA1 IA2 Governance Decentralization Globalization High Growth IB1 Sustainable Development Mixed Economy IB2 Self Reliance CO 2 Emissions Projections for India IA2 IB2 Top-down Models AIM/Material Consolidation SGM Productivity Energy Balances Global Energy Prices ERB/Mini-CAM Prices, GDP GEMA AIM/Trend Regional projections End-use Demand Demand Projection Sector Demand ANSWER MARKAL Technology Share AIM/End-Use Modeling Framework Bottom-up Models Power Sector LP Emissions AIM/Local Stochastic MARKAL Scenarios Technology Specifications Projections of Local Emissions Local/Sector Models CO 2 Emissions (MT) IA1 IA1T IB Inventory Assessment GIS Model Health Impact Assessment

4 Indian Emissions: Equity and Cost-effectiveness Per capita emissions (CO 2 ) Indian Scenarios Per Capita CO 2 Emissions IA2 IA1 IB2 IB1 Ton of Carbon Dioxide/Person IPCC A2 Scenario Annex II Annex I excl. Annex II World Non-Annex (Rest) I Non-Annex (Asia) I Mitigation Supply-curve from India ) Cost ($/Ton of Carbon) Carbon Mitigation (billion ton)

5 Technologies in Scenarios Conventional Technology Paths: Include significant endogenous technological change Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear Fission Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure 45 Frozen Technology IA2 Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas CO 2 Emissions (Million Ton) IB2 IA1 IA1T IB1 Nuclear (Thorium), Carbon-free hydrogen Information highways, High speed trains Advanced materials, Nanotechnology Push for renewable energy & recycling 15 Renewable Bikeway, Advanced Energy Technologies car sharing system Substitution of transport by IT Dematerialization, Material substitutions Sustainable habitats & land-use practices

6 Stabilization Induced Low Carbon Transition Carbon Emissions (MT) Carbon Emissions (MT) ppmv CO 2 Stabilization Induced Energy/ Technology Transition in India in A2 Scenario Carbon Capture Energy Efficiency Wind Solar Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Indian Emission Scenarios & Cost-effective 55ppmv mitigation trajectory India 55 ppmv emission Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon 55 ppmv Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon IA2 IB2 IA1 IA1T IB Type of endogenous development path matters to quantity and cost of mitigation Cost-effective Stabilization, e.g. at 55 ppmv level, would require mitigation in India even in case of low endogenous emissions scenarios Low endogenous emissions trajectory would result from technology innovations and sustainable actions High economic growth does not mean high emissions There is no silver bullet Need to develop portfolio of technologies Significant stabilization induced transitions in the second half of 21 st century Stabilization induced technological change would impose sizable GDP losses 55 PPMV Technology & financial transfers are vital for a cost-effective and fair stabilization regime

7 Aligning Development and Climate Economic/social Indicator National Development Targets Economic/social Indicator Climate Goal Technology & Institutional Innovations Climate Quality Climate Quality Aligning Development & Climate Actions to Gain Multiple Dividends Indian Examples Air Quality and GHG Mitigation Energy Security and GHG Mitigation South-Asia Regional Energy and Economic Cooperation and Climate Infrastructure Investment and Climate Risks

8 Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation Energy Security and GHG Mitigation Million Ton SO 2 Emissions A2 Scenario Emission Frozen SO 2 Control Policies Percentage of Primary Energy 8% 5 years of Primary Energy Transitions in India 6% Biomass 4% Coal 2% Oil Nuclear Gas % Hydro Carbon Emissions Energy Security: How choices matter to climate? Million Ton of Carbon A2 Scenario Emissions With Carbon $5/ton of CO 2 With BAU SO 2 Control Policies Domestic Coal High Emissions Nuclear Fission Carbon Free, Safety Issues Wind Limited Potential, Supply stability Solar High upfront cost, Supply stability, Storage Bio-fuels Ethanol Food Security, Water Stress Bio-Diesel Land Restoration, Employment Joint Mitigation (Period 25-23) Mitigation Regime SO 2 mitigation alone Joint Mitigation: CO 2 $5/ton & same SO 2 target Co-benefits Little carbon mitigation Joint mitigation costs $4 Million less Indian Bio-diesel Mission Phase I (23-7):Demonstration Projects Crop: Jatropha Curcas 4, hectares of land Participation by Oil Companies Phase II (27-212) Self Sustaining Expansion of Biodiesel Production target 1.2 MT of oil/ hectare

9 South-Asia Energy Cooperation Infrastructure and Climate Arabian Sea Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 21 to 23 $ Billion % GDP Energy 6 Exa Joule CO 2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28.8 SO 2 5 Million Ton 1.3 Monsoon Rainfall (25) Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change Spillover Benefits: 16 MW additional Hydropower Flood control Total Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries Probability of Occurrence Present limate C Less numberof days with >2 mm rainfall Light and spread-over rain Future Climate Number of days with > 2mm rainfall More number of days with >2 mm rainfall Very high number of days with >2 mm rainfall Heavy and concentrated rain

10 Conclusions Strategies for low carbon future should begin with shaping endogenous development path Stabilization would require mitigation even in low endogenous emission scenarios Achieving cost-effective global transition to low carbon future would call for substantial mitigation and adaptation actions in Developing Countries Stabilization would significantly alter energy system Policies and measures for achieving National Sustainable Development Goals provide climate friendly opportunities Aligning development and climate actions would accrue multiple dividends from co-benefits/spillovers and reduce climate burden