NYMEX - Annual Strips

Transcription

1 Weekly Summary: The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas storage fell by 48 billion cubic feet this week, higher than the expected reduction of 39 Bcf but considerably lower than the 227 Bcf withdrawal for the same week last year and five-year average withdrawal of 137 Bcf. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2,536 Bcf, 45.6% higher than last year and 35.6% higher than the five-year average for this time of year. The low winter demand due to the El Niño effect, coupled with record-level production, have both contributed to these historic stockpiles. Despite a depressed rig count, advances in more efficient drilling technology have still resulted in YoY output gains. As we near the shoulder period, record warmth is expected throughout the eastern half of the US during the 6-15 day forecast. Natural gas is the cheapest it has been in nearly two decades and has dropped almost 88% since its peak of $13.3/MMBtu in Though front-month pricing continues to move down due to modest withdrawals, longer-term futures are moving slightly higher. The withdrawal this week was slightly more than traders expected and low gas prices have incented higher consumption on the power generation sector. Analysts indicate with a decent baseline of power generation demand, current low prices could actually mean a better chance of higher prices later in the year into early Early projections calling for a hotter-than-normal summer could lend support to upward market movement. ISO New England experienced wholesale electricity pricing in January 2016 (avg. $33.99/MWh) that were about half the levels seen in January 2015 (avg. $65.59/MWh). The two primary drivers of wholesale electricity pricing in the region are the cost of fuel used to produce electricity and consumer demand. Pricing and demand both plummeted with a warmer than normal January with an average 2016 temperature 6.2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than With nearly half of the power production in New England coming from natural gas, natural gas-fired plants usually set the clearing price of wholesale electricity. NYMEX - Annual s $4.80 Henry Hub 2017 Annual Henry Hub 2018 Annual Henry Hub 2019 Annual $4.40 $4.00 $3.60 $3.20 $2.80 $2.40 Natural Gas: NYMEX Natural Gas: Storage Inventories NYMEX Natural Gas Summary Close () % Change from Last Week EIA Natural Gas Storage Summary This week Same week - Last year 5 Year Average for this week Prompt Month: Apr 2016 $ % Total (Bcf) 2,536 1,742 1,870 Front Month: May 2016 $ % Calendar 2016 Calendar 2017 $ % Current levels vs Previous years (Bcf) % Difference - Current vs Previous years $ % Injection/ Withdrawal % 35.61% 1

2 New England Annual Forward s - Basis Algon Gates 2017 Annual Algon Gates 2018 Annual $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Algon Gates, Natural Gas Basis Summary Last week 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $1.003 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.933 $ % $ % $ % $ % $55 $50.H.Internal_Hub $45 $40 $35 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 ISO-NE.H.Internal_Hub Power Movement Last week 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 2

3 New York Annual Forward s - Basis Transco Z 6 NY 2017 Annual Transco Z 6 NY 2018 Annual $1.40 $1.10 $0.80 $0.50 $0.20 Transco Zone 6 Non-NY, Natural Gas Basis Summary Last week 1 month ago 6 months ago 1 year ago % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.694 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.856 $ % $ % $ % $ % $60 $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 N.Y.C - J NYISO - N.Y.C. - J Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 3

4 Mid-Atlantic Annual Forward s - Basis Tetco M Annual Tetco M Annual $0.30 $0.10 -$0.10 -$0.30 Tetco M3, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % $ $ % -$ % $ % $ % $49 BGE $46 $43 $40 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 PJM BGE, Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 4

5 Southern California Annual Forward s - Basis SoCal Border 2017 Annual SoCal Border 2018 Annual $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 -$0.10 SoCal Border, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.123 $ % $ % -$ % $ % 2017 $0.159 $ % $ % $ % $ % $40 SP15 $35 $30 $25 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 CAISO SP15, Power Movement % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 5

6 Texas Annual Forward s - Basis Houston Ship Channel 2017 Annual Houston Ship Channel 2018 Annual $0.18 $0.13 $0.08 $0.03 -$0.02 -$0.07 Houston Ship Channel % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.012 $ % $ % $ % $ % $36 Houston Zone $31 $26 $21 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 ERCOT Houston Zone % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % $ % $ % $ % 6

7 Pacific Northwest Annual Forward s - Basis NW Sumas 2017 Annual NW Sumas 2018 Annual $0.10 -$0.05 -$0.20 -$0.35 -$0.50 -$0.65 NW Sumas, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % $ $ % -$ % -$ % -$ % Florida Basis - Annual Forward s Movement FGT Z Annual FGT Z Annual $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 FGT Z 3, Natural Gas Basis Summary % Change % Change % Change % Change 2016 $0.056 $ % $ % $ % $ % 2017 $0.063 $ % $ % $ % $ % 7

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