Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project

Transcription

1 Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project An Interagency Transporta0on, Land Use, and Climate Change Ini0a0ve Volpe The National Transportation Systems Center Ben Rasmussen November 14, 2013 Volpe The National Transportation Systems Center Advancing transportation innovation for the public good U.S. Department of Transportation Research and Innovative Technology Administration John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center 1

2 Purpose/History! Ini'a've of the Federal Interagency Working Group on Transporta'on, Land Use, and Climate Change " Integrated regional planning and development " Intermodal gateway mobility planning! Interagency Transporta'on, Land Use, and Climate Change Scenario Planning Pilot Project: Cape Cod, MassachuseIs ( )! Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project ( ) " Solicita'on posted April 30; May 30 deadline for responses " 10 regions applied; Central New Mexico selected June 21 2

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12 Study area 12

13 Tasks 1. Develop partnerships, coordinate resources, and collect data 2. Goals and objec'ves 3. Climate change mi'ga'on 4. Climate change adapta'on 5. Scenario planning 6. Final report Source: MRCOG (June 2013) 13

14 Develop partnerships, coordinate resources, and collect data Funding Partners! Organize Federal partners, new and old " Monthly Planning Group calls " Ad hoc Technical CommiIee mee'ngs! Talk with each agency to iden'fy exis'ng relevant resources and data available " Summarize in matrix and data assessment report Other Partners 14

15 Goals and objectives! Goal 1: Advance the role of climate change analysis in scenario planning. This project will improve the state of the prac'ce for integra'ng climate change adapta'on and mi'ga'on into regional transporta'on and land use planning using scenario planning processes.! Goal 2: Influence decision- making in Central New Mexico. This project will inform MRCOG s 2040 Metropolitan Transporta'on Plan, municipal hazard mi'ga'on plans, local and county land use plans, and Federal land management agency plans.! Goal 3: Develop a transferable process. The process and analy'cal methods developed for this project will be transferable to other regions.! Goal 4: Build partnerships. The project will build and strengthen rela'onships between federal, state, regional, municipal, and tribal governments. 15

16 Climate change mitigation! Policies and strategies to reduce transporta'on- related greenhouse gas emissions! Example strategies from Cape Cod: " Public transporta'on " Land use and smart growth " Pricing " Non- motorized transporta'on " Regional ride- sharing, car- sharing, and commu'ng " Opera'onal and intelligent transporta'on system (ITS) " Vehicle efficiency and alterna've fuel! 16 16

17 Climate change mitigation 17

18 Climate change mitigation! Literature review of GHG mi'ga'on strategies " Effec'veness " Cost es'mates " Social feasibility of implementa'on 18

19 Climate change adaptation! Iden'fy: " Regional climate change impacts # Technical CommiIee " Climate change futures # Technical CommiIee with Federal partners " The effect of these impacts on transporta'on and land use # Consultant team with input from Technical CommiIee " The effect of transporta'on and land use policy choices on climate change impacts # Consultant team with input from Technical CommiIee! Examples: " Mixed use " Density " Transit " New roads How will these be affected by climate change impacts? How will these exacerbate or alleviate these impacts? 19

20 Climate change adaptation! Cape Cod expert elicita'on iden'fied Areas of Concern " Eleva'on " Exposure to storm surge " Erosion " Flooding history " Lack of redundant transporta'on access " Poten'al SLR impacts! Areas of concern incorporated into scenario development 20

21 Climate change adaptation 21

22 Scenario planning Scenario Development 2040 MTP Growth Transporta'on Climate Change Project Water Air Quality 22

23 Scenario planning! Two approaches Risk mi'ga'on Shared vision 23

24 Risk mitigation approach Source: NPS 24

25 Risk mitigation approach Ho<er Slightly drier Close to status quo Slightly warmer Significantly warmer Hot and dry Parched and warm Significantly drier 25

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27 Shared vision approach 2030! Cape Cod " Pre- run scenarios " Workshop " Refined scenario Standard? Dispersed Trend Transporta0on Enhanced Development Targeted Standard Transporta0on Enhanced 27

28 Shared vision approach! Workshop " Interac've, GIS- based decision- support technology " Placement of chips for housing and employment " Real- 'me upda'ng of indicators Source: Volpe Center (November 2010) 28

29 Trend Housing 29

30 Targeted Housing 30

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32 Scenario assessment! Assessment indicators " Greenhouse gas emissions " Vehicle miles traveled " Percent of new popula'on and employees served by transit " Percent of new popula'on in vulnerable areas " Percent of popula'on in: " priority habitats " undeveloped lands " conserva'on areas " historic preserva'on areas " water resource/wellhead protec'on areas 32

33 Scenario assessment mitigation Percentage Change from Trend in Regional VMT and Transporta0on- related GHG Emissions 33

34 Scenario assessment adaptation Percentage of New Popula0on in Vulnerable Areas 34

35 Final report! Integra'on Plans " MRCOG " FWS " BLM! Technical Report! Guidebook Source: MRCOG (June 2013) 35

36 Guidebook: Overview! Pilot Project background! Process followed! Scenario documenta'on! Scenario assessment! Observa'ons! Recommenda'ons Contact informa'on: Ben Rasmussen Available at: h<p:// 36