Melbourne Water Outlook 2019

Transcription

1 Melbourne Water Outlook November 2018

2 Melbourne s water supplies are secure for the coming year Our water storages are in the high (secure) zone. Melbourne s water security is dependent on how much water we have in storage from year to year. Our water outlook zones are reviewed on 30 November each year, with Figure 1 showing the zones and corresponding actions. Melbourne s water supply system has enough water for the coming year, and our storages remain above the low (emergency) zone under a range of modelled scenarios. Permanent Water Use Rules are currently in place, supported by the Target 155 voluntary water efficiency program, which encourages Melburnians to continue using water efficiently. The Victorian Desalination Project has an important strategic role in the Melbourne water supply system to manage the impacts of climate change and a growing population. It allows for the planning and operation of the water supply system to maintain a buffer of water in storage which provides resilience to future shocks, such as droughts. The Victorian Desalination Project is supplying Melbourne with 15 billion litres of desalinated water for this year. Over the past year, the catchment areas have experienced drier and warmer-thanaverage conditions. Below average rainfall combined with dry catchments have also resulted in below average inflow conditions during 2018, with our storages now 5.6 per cent lower than the same time last year. 0% 40% Low (emergency) zone Medium (take action) zone 60% Current storage 63.0% High (secure) zone Figure 1: Our water outlook zones and corresponding actions Lorem ipsum 100% High (secure) zone Medium (take action) zone 63.0% Current storage level at 29 November 2018 Low (emergency) zone Actions per zone Water efficiency programs (e.g. Target 155, Permanent Water Use Rules) Use of the Victorian Desalination Project as required to minimise entering the medium (take action) zone Continued investment in alternative water sources (e.g. recycled water) Ongoing planning for water availability Ongoing engagement with customers. Increased use of the Victorian Desalination Project. Commence planning for augmentation Increased use of customer behaviour and efficiency programs Further water saving measures. Expanded use of customer behaviour and efficiency programs Implementation of augmentations Potential stage 3 and 4 restrictions Investment in emergency supply options Maximise use of the Victorian Desalination Project. 2

3 Melbourne s water supply system Melbourne Water provides wholesale water services to the retail water corporations and other customers. The retail water corporations deliver water to the community. Melbourne Water can also supply water to some regional water corporations including Western Water, Barwon Water, Gippsland Water, South Gippsland Water and Westernport Water. Each regional water corporation has their Water Outlook, but are considered when planning for Melbourne s water security. Figure 3: Melbourne Water supply system Figure 2: How water is supplied 3

4 Long-term outlook Population growth, the potential impacts of climate change and other factors influence the long-term supply and demand for water. In June 2017, the metropolitan retail water corporations released their urban water strategies coupled with Melbourne Water s release of the Melbourne Water System Strategy. Each strategy is reviewed every five years, to ensure ongoing water availability and to establish the strategic water resource investments and actions to Each aligns with the State Government of Victoria s Water for Victoria plan. A joint summary of our actions is outlined in Water for a futurethriving Melbourne. In addition to each strategy, each retail water corporation has prepared Drought Preparedness Plans (incorporating the Drought Response Plan) which set out actions to prepare for, and respond to, periods of water shortage. Recent impacts on our long-term outlook have been: Figure 4: Long-term water supply and demand (Source: Water for a future-thriving Melbourne, 2017)»» Rapid population growth in Melbourne over the past few years has increased water usage.»» Victoria s climate has shown a warming and drying trend over recent decades, and this trend is expected to continue. In comparison to historical conditions we re already experiencing:»» higher temperatures»» reductions in rainfall in autumn and winter, and in some locations, increases in rainfall during the warmer months»» in many catchments, a shift in the streamflow response to rainfall, with less streamflow generated for the same amount of rain. Figure 4 shows projected long-term water supply and demand trends for Melbourne, assuming full use of the Victorian Desalination Project, noting that there will be variability in specific years. 4

5 Melburnians continue to be water wise Residential customers are Melbourne s biggest water users and use approximately two and a half times more water than industry. Melbourne s water usage in increased by 5 per cent compared to the previous year. Total water use (see Figure 5) remains below the levels experienced prior to the Millennium Drought ( ), despite an increase in population. Residential water use comprised 64 per cent of Melbourne s total water use in (Figure 6). The residential per-capita consumption for was 161 litres per person per day (as detailed in Figure 8), the same as the previous year. billion litres Residential Non-residential System losses (e.g. fire fighting, leakage) Non-residential 24% System losses (e.g. fire fighting, leakage) 12% Residential 64% Figure 6: Water use breakdown for Did you know? 30% of residential water use occurs in the shower Since (as detailed in Figure 7), the Victorian Environmental Water Holder has released water available from environmental entitlements to the Thomson, Yarra and Tarago Rivers to improve environmental outcomes and the health of water ecosystems. Figure 5: Melbourne s total water use by segment 250 Volume (billion litres) Litres per person per day Figure 7: Environmental flow releases Figure 8: Melbourne s per capita residential consumption 5

6 A warmer summer ahead The Bureau of Meteorology outlooks show average rainfall, warmer temperatures, and low storage inflows are more likely for the Melbourne region over the next few months. Temperature and rainfall influence water use, particularly during summer periods, when it s used for watering gardens, parks, and sportsgrounds. At the same time, rainfall and temperature also influence inflows to Melbourne s storage reservoirs. El Niño events are generally associated with warm conditions with reduced rainfall. The category of El Niño ALERT (Figure 11) means that there s approximately a 70 per cent chance of El Niño developing in 2018, about triple the normal likelihood. The water corporations continually monitor storage conditions and the Bureau of Meteorology s seasonal climate outlooks. The climate outlook issued on 29 November 2018 indicated that average rainfall and warmer-than-average day time temperatures are likely for the Melbourne region this summer. The Bureau of Meteorology seasonal streamflow forecast issued on 12 November 2018 for Melbourne s four major storage reservoirs indicated lower than average inflows for the three-month period (November 2018-January 2019). Figure 9: Seasonal rainfall outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 Figure 10: Seasonal temperature outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 Figure 11: ENSO outlook (Source: Bureau of Meteorology 20 November 2018) 6

7 What this means for Melbourne Permanent Water Use Rules and water from the Victorian Desalination Project are important to keep Melbourne s water supply secure. As of 29 November 2018, the total system storage level is 63.0 per cent, 5.6 per cent less than the same time last year. As a result of the Victorian Government s desalinated water orders, since 2016 storage levels are 4.2 per cent higher than they otherwise would have been. While storage levels are likely to remain in the high (secure) zone (above 60 per cent) at 30 November 2019, modelling suggests that they could be lower than the medium (take action) zone on 30 November 2019 if dry conditions occur during 2019 (see Figure 12). The modelling has taken into account the potential water requirements of regional urban water corporations to be met through the water grid. We have a number of actions (as detailed in Figure 1) in the medium (take action) zone, and based on this water restrictions are unlikely for Melbourne over the next 12 months. However Permanent Water Use Rules will continue to apply to ensure sensible water use. Figure 12: Melbourne total system storage outlook (projected from 28 November 2018) Increasing community awareness of efficient water use practices, and use of the Victorian Desalination Project will minimise the risk of entering the medium (take action) zone. 7

8 Actions we re taking We ve identified a number of actions in each of our Urban Water Strategies and the Melbourne Water System Strategy, as well as the actions we ve taken collaboratively in Water for a future-thriving Melbourne. We ve provided a summary of the key actions we re working on together and separately to enhance our water availability. Permanent Water Use Rules Target 155 voluntary water efficiency program Community Rebates Program Integrated water management (IWM) Continuing to inform the community about the common sense rules which ensure the wise use of water at all times. Continuing to deliver the Victorian Government s Target 155 voluntary water efficiency program that encourages metropolitan Melbourne households to use water efficiently, aiming for 155 litres per person per day. The Victorian Water Efficiency Strategy identifies opportunities to work together to deliver water efficiency measures. This part-government funded program supports vulnerable customers to undertake plumbing improvements at home so they can avoid unnecessary and inefficient water usage. This includes engaging a plumber to do a water audit, and subsequently carry out minor plumbing works (e.g. replacement washers, dual-flush toilets, fixing leaking taps, replacement showerheads). Actively supporting the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP) in the formation and delivery of IWM forums, and leading the development of place-based IWM plans. Desalinated water order advice Annually reviewing the level of water availability and storage forecasts to provide advice to the Minister for Water on the desalinated water order volumes required to provide ongoing water security. In , 15 gigalitres (GL) of desalinated water was ordered with the desalination water order advice including non-binding forecasts of 100 and 125 GL for 2019/20 and 2020/21 respectively. (Source: 2018/19 Desalinated Water Order Advice, Summary of Technical Analysis) Schools Water Efficiency Program (SWEP) Continuing the schools program which helps schools identify leaks, faulty appliances and inefficient practices. Since 2012, SWEP has saved participating Victorian schools more than 4.7 billion litres of water equating to a saving of more than $13.7 million. Network efficiency Key achievements Undertaking active leak detection, reticulation mains renewals, district metering and trialling intelligent network technologies to minimise non-revenue water. Integrated water management: Through the IWM forum process, water corporations and relevant stakeholders have collaboratively identified key projects to implement across Melbourne. Developed a strategic directions statement for each catchment, which highlights prioritised projects. Priority public open space: Engaged with councils across Melbourne to better understand the role of the water sector in maintaining the quality of critical open spaces during times of water stress. Choose Tap : Participated in Choose Tap, the community-based initiative promoting the benefits of drinking tap water, to support community water awareness and enhance sustainability outcomes End use study: Continued a long-term study to analyse water use behaviours and the take up of water saving appliances in the home for 300 customers across Melbourne. Findings show that showers remain the most critical use of water in our homes, closely followed by toilets, with customers demonstrating continued efficient use of these appliances. Community Housing Retrofit Program: Provided water use audits and retrofits to emergency and community housing through this government-funded program, the design for which recognised customers differing requirements, to ensure that water use (and therefore bills) are minimised. 8

9 City West Water programs/projects Altona and West Werribee Recycled Water Schemes Efficiency programs Greening the West Stormwater Harvesting Partnership Fund West Werribee Aquifer Storage and Recovery Scheme Key achievements Operating and developing schemes to supply recycled water to commercial, industrial and residential customers, and for the irrigation of open spaces. Continuing to work with residential and non-residential customers to deliver water efficiency projects, focusing on sector-specific programs. Delivering regional green infrastructure projects in partnership with state and local government, industry bodies and community groups, linking sustainable water supplies to enabling healthy, liveable communities. Delivering a co-investment fund that partners with local government to deliver stormwater harvesting projects aimed at increasing alternative water supplies to priority open space precincts. Continuing operational trials for the testing of an aquifer storage and recovery scheme, using Class A recycled water. Climate Resilience Strategy: Launched in 2018, the strategy outlines City West Water s planned response to the impacts of climate change. Greening the West: Partnered with key stakeholders to deliver urban greening projects in Melbourne s West, including Upper Stony Creek, Greening the Pipeline and Trees for Schools. Stormwater Harvesting Partnership Fund: Launched the fund and committed up to $2.5 million per year for five years for co-funding to support and deliver stormwater harvesting projects. 9

10 South East Water programs/projects Dual pipe recycled water projects south-east growth corridor Fishermans Bend Monash National Employment and Innovation Cluster ( Monash Cluster ) Aquarevo Efficiency Key achievements Continuing to provide recycled water to more than 100,000 properties in the south-east growth corridor (Cranbourne, Pakenham, Officer, Clyde) as development proceeds. Continuing to work with key stakeholders and partners, to develop leading-edge integrated water solutions to create a water sensitive city for 80,000 people, in Australia s largest urban renewal project. Identifying the most viable and beneficial integrated water management projects that will help achieve the vision for the employment precinct (with Yarra Valley Water). Helping create a blueprint for future sustainable and liveable communities through integrated urban and water planning. Homes will be plumbed with three sources of water so the right water is used for the right purpose, set to reduce reliance on drinking water by up 70 per cent. Continuing to work with our residential and business customers to help them use water efficiently, in particular during traditional high water use periods. Water awareness and efficiency: A new education website (part of a schools education program) was launched to expand reach and increase use of water efficiency online resources. Fishermans Bend: The Integrated Water Servicing Strategy has been incorporated into the final Fishermans Bend Framework, ensuring water services are a fundamental aspect of achieving sustainable urban renewal. Aquarevo: Land sales commenced in November 2016, and Aquarevo s first residents have settled on their land. It s expected customers will start building their homes and move in throughout

11 Yarra Valley Water programs/projects Dual pipe recycled water projects northern growth corridor Alternative water provision in the Yarra Valley Upper Merri Creek Integrated Water Management Planning Water conservation communications Network efficiency Key achievements Continuing the ongoing provision of recycled water to over 100,000 properties in the northern growth corridor, including the suburbs of Epping North, Wollert, Kalkallo and Wallan, as development proceeds. Investigating the provision of recycled water for additional residential developments and irrigation purposes in the Croydon, Chirnside Park, Lilydale and Coldstream areas from the Brushy Creek sewage treatment and water recycling plant. Evaluating opportunities for alternative water use, including stormwater harvesting, through collaboration with key stakeholders e.g. Melbourne Water, councils, Traditional Owners. In keeping with Yarra Valley Water s Price Submission commitment to customers, providing targeted water conservation resources, education and programs for customers and the community about how to use water efficiently. Continuing investment to reduce leakage (non-revenue water) by establishing 250 district metered areas. Recycled water services in northern growth corridor: continuation of the roll-out including to suburbs of Beveridge, Craigieburn, Epping, Kalkallo, Mickleham and Wallan. Water recycling planning at Monash (with South East Water) and La Trobe National Employment Clusters: working with DELWP, Melbourne Water and local councils to review opportunities for water recycling in areas of planned redevelopment. Non-revenue water reduction: continued investment to reduce leakage, primarily through private mains metering and proactive leak detection. 11