The Role of CCS for Climate Change Mitigation, and its Perspective

Transcription

1 The Role of CCS for Climate Change Mitigation, and its Perspective Tim Dixon IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme 7 th Korea CCUS International Conference Jeju, Korea 9 February 2017

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3 Why CCS?

4 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report 2 nd November 2014 Copenhagen IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

5 Key Messages Human influence on the climate system is clear The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

6 The Choices We Make Will Create Different Outcomes With substantial mitigation Without additional mitigation Change in average surface temperature ( to ) AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

7 IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM

8 Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions 35% Energy Sector 24% 21% 14% Agriculture, forests and other land uses Industry Transport 6.4% Building Sector 2010 GHG emissions AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

9 Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy Many of these technologies exist today Improved carbon sinks Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

10 IPCC AR5 Role of different low-carbon energy technologies IPCC AR5 SYR from Table 3.2 (2014)

11 IEA ETP: CCS plays a key role in 2 C Global CO 2 reductions by technology area, DS Renewables 32% CCS 12% GtCO Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1% End-use fuel switching 10% 10 2DS End-use efficiency 38% Nuclear 7% OECD/IEA 2016

12 IEA: 94Gt CO 2 captured and stored in 2DS CCS deployment by sector in the 2DS Other Gas processing Biofuels MtCO Chemicals Cement Iron and steel Biomass power Gas-fired power Coal-fired power From 50Mt in 2020 to 6Gt in 2050 A total of 94Gt captured and stored through Gt 56% power 29Gt 31% process industries 13Gt 14% gas processing and biofuel production OECD/IEA 2016

13 Climate Action Now UNFCCC - 18 Nov 2015 High level summary of policy actions with high mitigation potential at 2020 Builds on Technical Expert Meetings (TEMs) Includes CCUS as one of the six priority areas Significance of Boundary Dam CCUS project Solutions through international cooperation eg IEAGHG, CSLF, GCCSI

14 COP-21 Paris (2015)

15 COP-21 Paris Agreement Article 2 Objectives Purpose of the agreement is limit warming to well below 2.0 C (by 2100) and pursue 1.5C To be delivered by the pledges in Articles 3 and 4 Increasing adaptation Ensuring finance Continues principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances

16 COP-21 Paris Agreement Article 3 and Article 4 Mitigation via (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Global peak of emissions asap, rapid reductions thereafter to achieve balance between emissions and sinks in second half of century Developed countries to lead, Developing countries to enhance efforts over time. Reflecting common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances NDCs to be updated very 5 years to represent a progression (from 2020) (current INDCs cover from 2020 to 2025 or 2030)

17 COP-21 Paris Agreement Article 6 Cooperative Approaches mechanism - for internationally transferred mitigation outcomes a new CDM-type mechanism? Article 7 Adaptation Article 8 Loss and Damage - Warsaw International Mechanism continues its work Article 9 Finance Financial Mechanism continues. Administered by continuing Green Climate Fund ($100bn by 2025) and GEF.

18 COP-21 Paris Agreement Article 10 Technology Development and Transfer technology framework to provide overarching guidance to the Technology Mechanism (ie CTCN) in promoting technology development and transfer strengthen collaborative approaches to research and development Technology neutral at the moment, depends on the technology framework which will be developed

19 COP-21 Paris Agreement Article 11 Capacity Building Article 12 Education Article 13 Transparency Article 14 Stocktake - in 2023 [2018 also], then every 5 years Open for signing from 22 April 2016 to 21 April 2017 Enters into force after 55 Parties ratify with 55% of emissions = 4 November 2016 Calls upon IPCC to do Special Report on 1.5C, by 2018

20 Photo Courtesy of IISD/ENB

21 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) 187 INDCs submitted 94% global emissions New trajectory to ~ 2.7C ~ 3.6C from existing policies CCS in 10 INDCs Bahrain Canada China Egypt Iran Malawi Norway Saudi Arabia South Africa UAE (and EU and USA) Climate Action Tracker

22 CCS and Unburnable Carbon Unburnable Carbon = fossil fuel reserves which cannot be used under a global carbon budget Stranded Assets = the result of above Carbon Bubble = over-valuation of fossil fuel-producing companies if cannot use all reserves

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24 IEAGHG Study on Unburnable Carbon and CCS Aim: assess relevance of CCS in terms of unburnable carbon Contractor: IEAGHG Report

25 EMF27 IAM inter-comparison 600 Primary Energy Fossil ( ) 450ppm 500 Primary energy (EJ/yr) Years Fulltech Conv noccs Utilisation of fossil fuels decreases in all scenarios over time From 2030: significant impact of CCS on fossil fuel use, esp. coal Range of outcomes from different models is large

26 Study on Unburnable Carbon and CCS Conclusions The global carbon budget erodes quickly The impact of CCS on unburnable carbon is significant, starting from 2030/2040 and becoming more apparent by 2100 Cost assumptions do not limit CCS uptake in IAMs But there are other factors that limit CCS uptake in IAMs Hypothesis: residual emissions Global CO 2 storage capacity (volumetric) is large and well above known fossil fuel current reserves May need pressure and brine management - induce higher storage costs CCS enables access to significant quantities of fossil fuels in a 2 C world

27 COP-22 Marrakesh, 7-18 November 2017 Positive context: the Paris Agreement ratified ahead of expected timescales and entered into force on 4 November Negative context: the USA election result. Calls from participants at COP for clear and consistent leadership on climate issues to continue from everyone, including industry. Confirmed in the high level political statement the Marrakesh Action Proclamation. Overall outcomes were agreements on the processes to develop the details of the many parts of the Paris Agreement to be ready for its implementation in 2020, including a financial roadmap for the $100bn of climate finance by 2020, with an ambition to have many of these rules ready by an earlier than expected timescale of ie work in progress towards implementation

28 CCS in UNFCCC IPCC SR on CCS CCS in CDM? 2011 CCS CDM Abu Dhabi workshop COP-17 CCS in CDM ADP TEM on CCS project focussed COP-20 CCS projects Side Event COP-21 CCS projects Side Event

29 COP-22 : CCS in CDM unresolved issues CCS accepted in CDM at COP-17 Durban, New CCS-specific Modalities and Procedures. Left two unresolved issues transboundary; global reserve of credits COP-22 SBSTA-45 agreed to conclude the consideration of the eligibility under the CDM of project activities consisting of CCS and storage in geological formations that involve the transport of CO 2 from one country to another or geological storage sites that are in more than one country, and the establishment of a global reserve of CERs for CCS in geological formations. FCCC/SBSTA/2016/L.19/Add.1 So the consideration of these two issues is ended.

30 CCS Activities at COP-22 UNFCCC Side event: CCS Opportunities for Africa. 8 th Nov Collaboration with UT, CO2GeoNet, CCSA. Speakers from BHP/SaskPower, S.Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, UT BEG, CO2GeoNet, and IEAGHG (introducing and chairing). Booth on CCS information inside UNFCCC Blue area, with CO2GeoNet, UT, CCSA IEAGHG also presented at: CO2GeoNet CCS event in EU Pavilion, 7 th Nov CO2GeoNet CCS event in Public area, 10 th Nov Oceans and Climate event in Public Area, 10 th Nov

31 Global CCS Update Very Active region Active region Active region R&D/ Pilots Developing Interest

32 Commercial-scale Application of CCS (to date) Sleipner 1Mt/y CO2 Weyburn 2.5 Mt/y CO2 In-Salah 1.2 Mt/y CO2 Snohvit 0.7Mt/y CO2 350km overland pipeline 160km sub sea pipeline

33 9 5 RCSP Phase III: Development Phase Core Sampling Taken 1 Injection started October 2013 Monitoring well drilling started 8 Injection Ongoing Injection began Nov 2011 Injection Scheduled Injection Started April 2009 Note: Some locations presented on map may differ from final injection location Courtesy NETL Large-Scale Geologic Tests Injection Started May Injection began August 2012 Injection started in depleted reef February Large-volume tests Four Partnerships currently injecting CO 2 Remaining injections scheduled Partnership Big Sky MGSC MRCSP PCOR SECARB SWP WESTCARB Field Project Geologic Formation Kevin Dome- Duperow Formation Illinois Basin Decatur- Mt. Simon Sandstone Michigan Basin - Niagaran Reef Bell Creek - Muddy Sandstone Fort Nelson - Sulfur Point Formation Early Test (Cranfield Field) - Tuscaloosa Formation Anthropogenic Test (Citronelle Field) Paluxy Formation Farnsworth Unit - Morrow Formation Metric Tons Injected to Date 0 > 850,000 > 234,000 > 741,000 0 > 4,300,000 > 100,000 > 102,000 Regional Characterization

34 2013 Port Arthur Project H2 Plant SMR operated by Air Products Consists of 2 Trains of SMR Retrofit capture VSA Operational mt CO2 pa to EOR

35 2014 Worlds first integrated coal fired power plant with CCS SaskPower s Boundary Dam Coal PS, Saskatchewan, Canada 110MWe Retrofit Shell/Cansolv Post combustion capture technology. EOR, and storage at Aquistore Started operation October International CCS Knowledge Centre

36 2015 Quest, Shell Canada H 2 Refining 1mt CO2 pa to DSF storage Lula, Petrobras, Brazil Offshore gas separation and CO2-EOR

37 Power Sector Kemper County, USA Petra Nova, NRG Parish, USA Novel IGCC Technology 524 MW lignite fired new build 65% of total emissions captured Due on stream 2017 Refit of existing coal fired unit Operational in late 2016 MHI amine based PCC technology 250 MW slip stream 90% capture CO2 for EOR

38 Other New Developments Norway Assessing 3 industry CCS projects Offshore Assessments Gulf States Uthmaniyah CO2-EOR Demonstration Project, Saudi Aramco o Source Gas processing 0.8Mt/y The Abu Dhabi CCS Project o CO2 capture capacity of 0.8 Mtpa, o the world s first iron and steel project» Precombustion CO2 capture

39 IEA: 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November at GHGT-13 and COP-22. Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2 C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace OECD/IEA 2016

40 IEA: Implementing Paris: Well-below 2 C Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 o C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 o C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the second half of this century OECD/IEA 2016

41 IEA: Shifting to well below : Targeting remaining emissions in the 2DS Remaining CO 2 emissions in the 2DS in Other transformation Agriculture GtCO 2 20 Power Buildings 10 Transport Industry Industry the largest source of emissions in 2050 (45%) Industry accounts for 33% of aggregate emissions to 2050 OECD/IEA 2016

42 IEA: Remaining emissions in power Annual (left) and cumulative (right) CO 2 emissions of the power sector in the 2DS GtCO Coal w/o CCS Gas w/o CCS Oil Coal w/ccs Gas w/ccs Power sector virtually decarbonised by 2050; but is the second-largest source of cumulative emissions in the period to 2050 (29%) Unabated gas-fired power is the largest source of power sector emissions in 2050 OECD/IEA 2016

43 IEA: Beyond net zero emissions 6 5 Negative emissions in the 2DS Fossil CCS power generation (captured) GtCO Fossil CCS industry and fuel transformation (captured) Bio-CCS power generation (negative emission) Bio-CCS fuel transformation (negative emission) MCC (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change) ADM s Illinois Industrial CCS Project: the first large-scale BECCS project OECD/IEA 2016

44 IEA: 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage New IEA CCS publication, released on 15 November. Three sections: 1. Two decades of progress 2. Towards well below 2 C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace OECD/IEA 2016

45 IEA: CCS is not on track CCS has moved forward but is far from being consistent with a 2 C pathway If all projects known today were to proceed, the maximum capture rate would be less than 70 MtCO 2 Capture potential of the project pipeline, by sector. Data source: GCCSI OECD/IEA 2016

46 IEA: Will Paris provide needed momentum? CCS mentioned in only 10 NDCs 2030 timeframe Perception that CCS is a future technology Parties invited to submit midcentury climate strategies by 2020 Mission Innovation 23 members; $30 billion/year by 2021 Carbon Capture Innovation Challenge OECD/IEA 2016

47 Can we Build CCS Fast Enough? Will need rapid deployment of CCS infrastructure Analogues from industry build-out rates in Power sector and Oil and Gas sector suggest Yes IEAGHG Report 2012/09

48 IEA: Accelerating future progress Stable policies, including financial support, are urgently needed. CO 2 storage development critical New approaches and a re-focusing of efforts can also promote faster deployment: Greater emphasis on CCS retrofitting Cultivating early opportunities for BECCS Developing markets for clean products Moving from conventional enhanced oil recovery (EOR) practices to EOR+ for verifiable CO 2 storage Disaggregating the CCS value chain to enable new business models to emerge Deployment of CCS will not be optional in implementing the Paris Agreement Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2016

49 The Role of CCS for Climate Change Mitigation, and its Perspective 7 th Korea CCUS International Conference Jeju, Korea 9 February 2017

50 Thank You Any questions?