The Shape of Things to Come:

Transcription

1 The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group Washington, DC; November 10, Pearl Street Cambridge, MA

2 1. Marginal costs influence behavior 2. The shape of CSE curves matters 3. Unproven efficiency reserves are typically ignored 4. Unproven oil and gas reserves are not ignored 5. Research is needed to characterize technological change and unproven efficiency reserves

3 Prices for US Electricity, Gas, Oil (nominal $) 10 9 Residential Electricity Price 8 7 Industrial Electricity Price cents/kwh Petroleum (at 10,000 Btu/kWh) Natural Gas (at 10,000 Btu/kWh)

4 Regional Clean Energy Plans These reports are available on the web:

5 Xenergy, Generic curve

6 CSE Curve Data Xenergy, Generic curve Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State (4) Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia (2) LBL, 1999, US SERI, 1981, US

7 CSE Curve Data LBL, 1995, US Amory Lovins, 1989, US Optimal, 2003, New York State Xenergy, 2002, California Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Interior West Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Utah NYSERDA, 2003, New York State (2)

8 Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US

9 Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy- Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US

10 Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW

11 American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

12 American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

13 American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

14 American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

15 Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia

16 Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia

17 LBL, 1999, US

18 SERI, 1981, US

19 LBL, 1995, US

20 Amory Lovins, 1989, US

21 Optimal, 2003, New York State

22 Xenergy, 2002, California

23 Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California

24 Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW

25 Tellus, 2001, Interior West

26 Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW

27 Tellus, 2001, Utah

28 NYSERDA, 2003, New York State

29 NYSERDA, 2003, New York State

30 EIA

31 EIA

32 Hydrocarbon Resource Classification

33 IEA Regional Shares

34 Proven Reserves by Region

35 Ultimately Recoverable

36 World Original Resource Base

37 Annual Production Scenarios

38 Ultimately Recoverable Oil

39 Research Ideas Analysis of CSE curves past projections v. what actually happened Identify reasons for upturn in CSE price Characterize reasons and quantify to the extent possible by technology. Apply concepts from oil and gas reserves?

40 Xenergy, Generic Curve