Sustainability: How Far Are We From Thou?

Transcription

1 Sustainability: How Far Are We From Thou? A dry wetland Tad Patzek, Petroleum & Geosystems Engineering, UT Austin 96 nd ESA Annual Meeting, Austin Convention Center, August 10, 3:20pm

2 Summary of Conclusions... There is no temporary environmental crisis; we have a steadily accelerating deterioration of the entire ecosphere Historical human societies were unsustainable over the time scales of centuries or millennia Modern societies are hyper-unsustainable over the time scale of decades A modern steady-state economy violates Second Law of Thermodynamics With ever more people striving to live like us, there is little we can do about the accelerating global unsustainability We have not developed a meaningful language to talk about the collapses of civilizations p.1/25

3 Sustainability... Yuri M. Svirezhev, 2000: Any ecosystem is an open thermodynamic system: 1. A sustained optimal steady-state (climax) of an ecosystem occurs when the entropy production inside the ecosystem is balanced by the entropy export from the ecosystem to its environment 2. The entropy export into the universe is driven by the sun 3. Almost all agricultural systems and all other human systems violate Condition 1 and are unsustainable Thermodynamics and ecology, Ecological Modelling 132, 11 22, 2000 p.2/25

4 Sustainability Tadeusz W. Patzek, 2004: A cyclic process is sustainable if and only if It is capable of being sustained, i.e., maintained without interruption, weakening or loss of quality forever, and The environment on which this process feeds and to which it expels its waste is also sustained forever Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle, CRPS, 23(6), , December 2004 Practically all human activities are unsustainable; they re not even cycles. Forever must be defined. p.3/25

5 Facts A modern society is a dynamic, far-from-equilibrium structure that requires constant flow of energy through it The more complex the society is the more energy throughput (power) it requires Conversely, the diminished power results in a simplification of social structures Edible food-like substances we consume require huge energy flows Tokyo p.4/25

6 Facts Pharmaceutical research, cancer treatment, biotechnology, nanotechnology, computer manufacturing, solar photovoltaics, etc. require huge power, mostly from fossil fuels Advanced education for many requires large energy flows Modern science & technology require the ever-increasing energy flows All these activities are unsustainable CT scan of brain p.5/25

7 U.S. Hydrocarbon Metabolism Each day, a U.S. resident gulps 4 gallons of hydrocarbons as crude oil equivalents My VW Jetta DTI, drives on this amount of energy for 5 6 days p.6/25

8 U.S. Hydrocarbon Metabolism In one day an average U.S. resident consumes 4.2 gallons of oil equivalent, or a 1/10 of a barrel: An average U.S. resident develops 100 W of power per 24-hour day Let s assume that he/she can work for 8 hours/day at 200 W on average Then, 4.2 gallons of petroleum is equivalent to /200/3600/8 = 106 days of labor We would have to work hard for over 100 days to make up for what we consume as hydrocarbons in 1 day. One year of gorging on hydrocarbons is equal to 1 century of hard human labor. p.7/25

9 Global Hydrocarbon Metabolism y x 0.63 mammal skin area with body mass y x 3/4 metabolism with body mass Luxembourg Qatar 10 2 US Gibraltar GDP (USD)/day person 10 1 Chad China Brazil Poland Togo 10 0 Burundi Congo Barrel of oil equivalent/day person Sources: CIA, EIA, Patzek s calculations, 03/28/11 p.8/25

10 Global Metabolism y x 0.63 mammal skin area with body mass Qatar y x 3/4 metabolism with body mass Luxembourg Energy Transformations, $/day person Chad 3 2 Poland Botswana Gabon Uruguay Brazil Angola Togo 1 China US Gibraltar 10 0 Burundi Congo Personal, 24 hours/day energy slaves Sources: CIA, EIA, Patzek s calculations, 03/28/11 p.9/25

11 Global Metabolism The three vertical lines are the U.S. 1. On all renewables, 2. All renewables minus hydropower, and 3. All renewables minus hydropower minus biofuels and their coproducts On a diet of renewables, a statistical U.S. resident who currently gulps a 1/10 of a barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, will be sipping roughly 1/100 of BOE/day as renewables only, thus reducing the U.S. energy metabolism to the level of China, Gabon, Uruguay, Botswana, or Angola. But, because of the omnipresent fossil fuels, this statement is blithe cheating. Reality is much worse p.10/25

12 Coal Metabolism, China India GDP, USD of the day Coal consumption, kg oil equivalent Sources: WTO, BP, Patzek s calculations, 04/02/11 p.11/25

13 IEA Demand Growth Scenario... OECD/EIA 2008 scenario of annual energy demand in the world Source: weosideeven.pdf p.12/25

14 IEA and an Oil Production Peak?! 50 million bopd There is an oil peak and 58 millions barrels of oil per day will be missing by 2030 Source: weosideeven.pdf p.13/25

15 Electricity generation: 39 EJ p /y 350 Hydroelectric Rest Nuclear Days on Electricity/year Natural Gas & Other Coal That s 37% of primary energy use in U.S. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 p.14/25

16 Electricity generation Rest Days on Electricity/year Geothermal Wind Wood & Other Biomass Petroleum Solar thermal and PV = 1 hour of U.S. electricity. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 p.15/25

17 Transportation Fuels: 33 EJ p /y 350 Ethanol Residual Oil Aviation Fuels Days on Fuel/year Distillate Oil Motor Gasoline That s 31% of primary energy use in U.S. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 p.16/25

18 California, Base Electricity 350 Rest 43 Days on Electricity/year Hydroelectric Nuclear Natural Gas Coal/Imports Source: California Energy Commission, accessed 07/16/2011 p.17/25

19 California, Other Electricity Solar 1 16 Days on Electricity/year Geothermal Wind Wood & Other Biomass 0 Petroleum Source: California Energy Commission, accessed 07/16/ p.18/25

20 Nevada, Solar Concentrators Solar 1 in Nevada. 15 MW of continuous power from 1.6 km 2 of mirrors One coal- or gas-fired power plant produces MW 24 hours per day p.19/25

21 California, Solar 1&2 Solar 1 produced 10 MW of electricity using 1,818 mirrors, each 40 m 2 on 72,650 m 2 of land Solar 2, added to Solar 1 a second ring of 108 larger, 95 m 2 mirrors Total area of Solar 1&2= 82,750 m 2, total power 10 MW In November 2009, the Solar 1&2 tower was demolished; the site was returned to vacant land 1 km 2 = 1,000,000 m 2 p.20/25

22 Texas, Base Electricity 350 Hydroelectric Nuclear Rest Days on Electricity/year Natural Gas Coal Sources: ERCOT/EIA, accessed 07/16/2011 p.21/25

23 Texas, Other Electricity Days on Electricity/year Wind 5 Wood & Other Biomass Petroleum Sources: ERCOT/EIA, accessed 07/16/ p.22/25

24 California, Crude Oil Sources 350 Foreign Days on Petroleum/year Alaska California Sources: Texas Railroad Commission, accessed 07/16/2011 p.23/25

25 Texas, Crude Oil Production Oil Consumption/Production Sources: Texas Railroad Commission, accessed 07/16/2011 p.24/25

26 You Could Read Our Book Sale begins in September p.25/25