The Fracking Facts. What is fracking? The issues. Questions and discussion

Transcription

1 The Fracking Facts What is fracking? The issues Questions and discussion

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7 { Some Gas Measurements (standard) cubic feet or cf } or toe tons of oil equivalent or BTU British Thermal Units 1 cf = 1000 BTU = 0.29 kwh 1 toe = 39 million cf (39,000,000 cf) Av UK household uses 53,000 cf pa or 15,462 kwh which is 18 kwh/p/d (remember 190 kwh/p/d!) UK consumes 3.5 tcf pa that's 3,500,000,000,000 cf or 53,800 cf/p/a

8 History of Fracking in the USA 1866 Exploding torpedos in artesian wells. 1930s Acid liquids for oil recovery 1940s Birth of hydraulic fracturing for oil 1960s/70s Widespread use of fracturing in shale formations Directed drilling Discovery of extensive low permeability gas shales 1990s Horizontal drilling developed for shale oil Fracking for shale gas

9 Currently over 1 million wells in the USA % of USA total gas production %

10 History of Fracking in the UK 1970s Fracking used in North Sea 1980s Fracking used in a number of onshore oil/gas wells 2011 First shale gas exploratory well at Preese Hall, Lancs further exploratory wells in Lancs exploration licenses awarded ê

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13 UK Shale Gas potential UK uses about 3.5 tcf of gas pa Production decline of conventional gas has continued into 2015 The British Geological Survey estimates that the Bowland Shale in Lancashire contains 822 tcf to 2281 tcf

14 The Issues and h earthquakes water contamination fluid leakage waste material possibly radioactive noise air pollution traffic h - climate change

15 USA vs UK shale gas development USA Land owner is statutorily eligible for compensation and royalty. UK The Crown owns all mineral rights. Complex hierarchy of planning laws Regulation is managed by states, Less open space counties and cities. Some states very supportive others have Deeper more complex shales banned fracking. making drilling more expensive More accessible shallow shale formations. No national gas grid European gas network Higher gas prices

16 The Planning Process Agencies Involved DECC Environment Agency Natural England English Heritage Local Authority Local Communities Health and Safety British Geological Survey

17 EARTHQUAKES

18 The Richter Scale Each step is 10x the amplitude or 31.6x the energy of the previous level The Preese Hall quake was M2.3 Water injection from geothermal drilling in Cornwall caused a M3.5 quake in 1981 In USA most seismic activity is due to waste water disposal by injection. Can be up to M5 (source: EPA) It is not known if the Environment Agency will permit this type of disposal

19 Water contamination - Fluid leakage A well needs 2 to 6 million gallons water over its lifetime (about the same as a golf course for one month) Drilling "mud" is used for the initial borehole. The mud is clay (bentonite) or calcium type (gypsum) minerals with added chemicals. Fracking fluid contains ordinary sand plus chemicals. About 10%-30% will return to the surface. The fracking fluid will pick up from the shale - volatile organic compounds - minerals and heavy metal ions - naturally radioactive compounds

20 Well Integrity Nearly all leakages due to defective casing or cementing USA track record is not improving due to lack of regulation Chemical additives are trade secrets in the USA Will UK regulation be effective?

21 Noise, Traffic and Air Pollution Very little officially published information. Pennsylvania Dept of Health officials forbidden to talk about it. UK Task Force Area of greatest public concern Pennsylvania Dept of Health complaints from fracking communities ç 87 between 2011 to 2015.

22 Radiation

23 Radiation

24 Radiation Exposure limit in UK is 1mSv pa from all man made sources Max dose from 1 source must not exceed 0.5mSv pa Doses of 0.05 msv pa from a single source have to be investigated If all your annual water intake came from the Preese Hall flowback you would ingest 7mSv The natural radiation dose of people living in Cornwall is 7.8mSv The maximum annual permitted radiation dose for UK nuclear industry workers is 20mSv (Canada is 50mSv)

25 climate change Energy Mix gas has displaced coal

26 climate change Energy Mix gas and electricity have the same CO2 footprint

27 climate change

28 climate change

29 climate change DECC Forecasting a stable demand for gas

30 climate change Others don't agree Widely varying forecasts to 2050: - WWF says 0% gas - Shell say gas increases then falls back to today's level - Summation of each country's recent forecasts was made by the IEA ê

31 climate change IEA Forecast INDC = Intended Nationally Determined Contributions COP21 Dec 2015

32 climate change UK Forecast Task Force Report General consensus is a UK gas consumption of 1.2 tcf to 1.8 tcf pa by 2050

33 climate change World Reserves of conventional gas Russia Iran Qatar Turkmenistan United States Saudi Arabia United Arab Em Venezuela Nigeria Algeria China Iraq Rest Total TCF

34 Wholesale Gas Prices in the UK

35 Costs of Fracking in the UK

36 Fracking Conclusions UK has a stable to declining gas demand. There are huge reserves of shale gas. Once legislation is in place to regulate fracking, costs of exploration and production are likely to be high. Imported conventional gas is a world traded commodity and likely to remain cheap. ê Fracking activity in the UK is unlikely to develop significantly.