Power Planning Challenges in a Fast Market. Conservation Resources Advisory Committee

Transcription

1 Power Planning Challenges in a Fast Market Conservation Resources Advisory Committee November

2 Outline Outline key trends in SSL & pace of change Overview Market forecasts Trend Analysis Discuss implications on forecast & CPA Discuss approaches for Seventh Plan 2

3 Seventh Plan Issues Include forecast cost trends beyond 2015? Estimating pace of market uptake Near-term technology innovation Estimating old system turnover rates in face of new technology Take these issues up at Conservation Take these issues up at Conservation Resource Advisory Committee (CRAC)

4 Overview 4

5 Key Sources 5

6 Key Findings 1. Rapid Technology Evolution 2. Rapid Industry Evolution 3. Rapid Customer Uptake 4. Forecast Rapid Improvement Efficacy Cost Market Penetration 6

7 Pace of Change Logarithmic Scale Source State Li Develo : Multi Year Program Plan, Solidighting Research and pment (USDOE April 2013)

8 Select Best-In-Class Incumbent Comparison 2013 Form Factor Incumbent Best 2013 Best 2013 In Efficacy: Technology Incumbent LED LED products Efficacy Efficacy are challenging (lm/watt) (lm/watt) some Best In Class incumbent A 19 bulb Halogen IR technologies. A 19 bulb CFL PAR 38 bulb Halogen IR But tit it s not all MR 16 Bulb Halogen IR about efficacy: Cost Candelabra Incandescent Life Downlight CFL Output t Color 4 Foot Linear Pendant Linear Fluor Maintenance 2x2 Recessed Troffer U Bent Fluor High Bay Metal Halide Streetlight HPS

9 Industry Revenues Growing Strategies t Unlimited forecast industry revenue of $22 Billion by 2016

10 LED Product Count On the Rise Source: DOE Lighting Facts Snap Shot July 2013

11 Saturation in Two Years Source: Multi Year Program Plan, Solid State Lighting Research and Development (USDOE April 2013) 11

12 Bulb Cost Trends FIGURE 2.6 A19 REPLACEMENT LAMP PRICEPROJECTION PROJECTION (60W EQUIVALENT) Note: The shaded region illustrates the price range for a typical equivalent performance CFL (13W self ballasted CFL, non dimmable at bottom, and dimmable at top). A halogen incandescent costs about $2.50/klm today.

13 Downlight Cost Trends

14 Source: City of y Los Angeles, Bureau of Lighting Streetlight Fixture Cost Trends

15 Studies Forecast Significant Penetration ti of SSL 15

16 USDOE: Forecast Lumens by Source Source: Energy Savings Potential of Solid State Lightingg in General Illumination Applications, USDOE/EERE January

17 USDOE: Forecast Big Savings 17 Source: Energy Savings Potential of Solid State Lightingg in General Illumination Applications, USDOE/EERE January 2012

18 Analysis of Pace of Trends 18

19 Typical Power Planning Assumptions Baseline Federal standards or State codes OR better Stock Turn-Over Rates Lamp burnout, fixture replacements & system remodels are relatively frequent in lighting Frozen Efficiency Baseline Replaced lamps/fixtures are frozen at today s efficiency levels Challenged by Fast Paced SSL 19

20 Seventh Plan Issues Include forecast cost trends beyond 2015? Estimating pace of market uptake Near-term technology innovation Estimating old system turnover rates in face of new technology Take these issues up at Conservation Take these issues up at Conservation Resource Advisory Committee (CRAC)