TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM WITH 60% RES EDF R&D

Transcription

1 TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM WITH 60% RES EDF R&D Strasbourg, 13 Septembre

2 The study: how can we integrate «a lot of RES» in power systems? 60 % RES (generation) 40 % Wind & Solar RES Thermal fossil fuel Wind offshore Biomass & Geothermal Nuclear Solar Wind Onshore Hydro power A very large study simulating the impact of the HiRES scenario of the EU 2050 Energy Roadmap 2

3 And the good news are The lights will stay on so no emerging market for candles! 3

4 That said Intermittent and conventional generation should be viewed as complementary. Quite a few levers can be mobilised in order to deal with variability: transmission lines, storage, demand side but thermal back-up will remain the main one for long and conventional base load should be low carbon. The pace of deployment of variable generation has to be optimised. 4

5 Load factor Geographical diversity does help, but there is still significant variability at European level Wind onshore generation for different geographical areas Source RTE Day GW 250 Onshore wind daily average generation 30 climatic years France Brittany Farm GW Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 40 GW You can reduce local variability of wind and PV trough networks but the correlation in wind regimes acts as a limit at continental level 5

6 Integrating a large share of variable RES requires a coordinated development of RES and networks Interconnection reinforcement (GW) similar to TYNDP 2014 Interconnection reinforcement TYNDP 2010 (GW) TYNDP GW 6 RES geographical distribution is defined according to resource potential and land use constraints

7 Not only conventional generation, but also variable RES, will contribute load-generation balancing Middle of the day valley GW European Demand Net demand (demand variable RES) Net demand changes between: GW, +500 GW Demand changes between: 240 GW, 600 GW Penetration of RES > 100 % RES need to provide flexibility and services essential for system security 400 GW ramp between Sunday and Monday 7

8 System still needs backup capacity for security of supply High decarbonisation level is achieved with a significant share of carbon free base load, in particular nuclear GW No Wind & Solar Total : 444 GW 89GW 89GW European thermal installed capacity 250GW 78GW 71GW With Wind & Solar Total : 352 GW 86GW 34GW 99GW 0 Nuclear Coal CCGT OCGT Average CO 2 with 60% RES = 125 g CO 2 /kwh Average CO 2 with additional coal/gas replacement = 73 g CO 2 /kwh Average CO 2 without nuclear 200 g/kwh (average CO 2 today = 350 g CO 2 /kwh) 8

9 Storage and active demand may to a certain extent supplement generation to balance supply and demand Gross system benefit and Net benefit interval (as a function of storage cost) of additional storage capacity M /y 1000 France Germany + Austria UK Gross system benefit Net system benefits interval Additional GW of storage - Weekly storage (40 h) Storage and flexible demand contribute to the flexibility required for balancing but do not replace the need for backup generation 9

10 Variable RES production should potentially provide new services like fast frequency response Synchronous generators Frequency Wind turbines Risk of load shedding ~1% of the time and violation of security limits 25% of the time PV Curtailment to avoid stability problems during critical periods can only be limited if variable RES provide services essential system security 10

11 Difference to the base price ( /MWh) The pace of deployment of variable RES should be optimised in order to limit costs of storage or excessive curtailment RES market value «cannibalisation» The first MWs of RES have a market value close to the base price Italy Spain UK 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70 % France France Germany Italy Germany Spain Poland UK Penetration rate in energy Wind PV The market value of variable RES will decrease as their penetration levels increases and this is more pronounced for PV 11

12 The electricity system is the largest industrial system built by mankind adding a massive amount of variable RES requires a major system transformation not easy to perform overnight! 12

13 EDF R&D THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 13 Report avaliable from : Strasbourg, 13 Septembre 2016

14 Simulation of the EU Energy Roadmap «HiRES 2030» scenario HiRES scenario EU energy roadmap Generation Mix 2030 High RES 2030 GW Load factor (h/yr) 60 % RES (generation) Solar (PV) Onshore wind Offshore wind Hydro % Wind & Solar RES Fuel Price Thermal fossil fuel Wind offshore Biomass & Geothermal Nuclear Solar Wind Onshore Hydro power Coal Gas Oil 86 /t 10 /MMBtu 107 /baril CO 2 35 /t 14

15 Integrating a large share of variable RES requires a coordinated development of RES and networks RES geographical distribution Network development scenario PV (GW) Offshore wind ( GW) Onshore wind (GW) TYNDP GW 15 Interconnection reinforcement (GW) similar to TYNDP 2014 Interconnection reinforcement TYNDP 2010 (GW)

16 -- Need for the system to adapt ++ The pace of deployment of RES should be optimized in order to limit costs of storage or excessive curtailment Small Island (i.e. La réunion) Big Island (i.e. Ireland) Big Synchronous system (i.e. Europe UCTE) Have already limited instant penetration because of stability problems curtailment Impacts of RES in power system *the hierarchy is just illustrative Ineffective system s protection Stability issues Some countries in Europe already face network and/or flexibility issues curtailment Network constraints Flexibility issues 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % Share of Variable RES (%) 16 The more the system needs to adapt, the more costly and complex solution will be required