Balancing variability in a 100% renewable scenario. Alice Hooker-Stroud

Transcription

1 Balancing variability in a 100% renewable scenario Alice Hooker-Stroud alice.hooker-stroud@cat.org.uk

2 (1973)

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8 (2014)

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12 Wales Institute for Sustainable Education

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16 Less hand on, more sitting at a desk...

17 A technically robust scenario in which the UK has risen to the challenge of climate change.

18 Dear Santa

19 Some assumptions Physically realistic approach (no BAU available)

20 Where we re heading today

21 Where we re heading today

22 Where we re heading today

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25 Some assumptions Physically realistic approach (no BAU available) We can t change physics

26 Some assumptions Physically realistic approach (no BAU available) We can t change physics Net zero emissions, basically ASAP All greenhouse gases Across all sectors agriculture, land-use, industry

27 Some assumptions Physically realistic approach (no BAU available) We can t change physics Net zero emissions, basically ASAP All greenhouse gases Across all sectors agriculture, land-use, industry Big changes will be necessary.

28 GHGs: 2010 GHGs: ZCB

29 Some scenario aims Keep the lights on and keep everyone warm (make sure supply meets demand at all times). Make sure we all eat enough, and eat well. Keep a decent standard of living, with the benefits of a modern society. Support biodiversity use less land than we do currently (at home and abroad).

30 Energy in ZCB

31 Some rules 100% renewable energy No nuclear No CCS UK resources only Technology available now No relying on silver bullets

32 UK Energy 2010

33 UK Energy ZCB

34 UK Energy ZCB Much reduced annual energy demand Improved efficiency and behaviour change Electrification of systems 100% renewable (decarbonised) supply

35 UK Energy ZCB Much reduced annual energy demand Improved efficiency and behaviour change Electrification of systems 100% renewable (decarbonised) supply Not a new idea

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37 UK Energy 2010

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45 Today

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50 UK Energy ZCB

51 UK Energy ZCB

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53 Supply Demand

54 Supply Demand

55 Comparison to energy production of estimated max capacity of renewable resource in the UK

56 So we definitely have enough resource

57 (In fact, globally, we have enough resource for everyone )

58 But Is this a reliable energy system? (or: Can we keep the lights on? )

59 Balancing Variability in ZCB

60 How we deal with intermittency in ZCB

61 With thanks to Tobi Kellner and Philip James Loughborourgh University (Future Energy Scenario Assessment (FESA) model) Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) (Energieziel 2050, German Department of the Environment)

62 With thanks to Tobi Kellner and Philip James Loughborourgh University (Future Energy Scenario Assessment (FESA) model) Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) (Energieziel 2050, German Department of the Environment) Members of the public

63 ZCB hourly energy model Ten years of data ( ) = 87,648 hours: Hourly offshore and onshore wind speeds, solar radiation, wave heights, (NASA, Met Office, BADS) Hourly electricity consumption (UK National Grid) Daily weighted average temperatures (UK National Grid) Installed capacity and demand from ZCB scenario

64 ZCB hourly energy model

65 ZCB hourly energy model Demand Supply Storage and back-up system

66 Example: Offshore wind

67 Example: Offshore wind

68 GW GW GW /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /01/2011 Weather Weather base base date date Weather base date geothermal geothermal hydro hydro tidal tidal wave wave onshore wind onshore wind offshore wind offshore wind solar PV solar PV industrial appliances heating transport

69 GW GW >90GW excess supply available >60GW dispatchable backup required 14/12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /01/2011 Weather base date

70 Best hour: 22 May 2011 (Sunday)

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73 Worst hour: 21 December 2010, 8 am (Tuesday)

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75 (very difficult to find news stories about a not very windy day ) Is the EU stealing UK wind!? (and its still cold)

76 How much of our hourly demand is covered

77 Surplus 83% of time

78 Surplus 83% of time Back-up process inefficient Other demands for gas/liquid fuel Shutdown time?

79 But this is what concerns us

80 GW GW GW GW Short-term fluctuations /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /12/ /12/ /12/2010 Weather base date 29/12/ /01/2011 Weather base date geothermal geothermal hydro hydro tidal tidal wave wave onshore onshore wind wind offshore wind wind solar PV industrial appliances heating heating transport transport

81 Short-term fluctuations Large hour-to-hour variations

82 Short-term fluctuations Large hour-to-hour variation Demand Side Management (DSM) can help e.g. smart charging of electric cars (~25GWh) Pumped hydro storage and heat storage can provide short-term storage (~25GWh; ~100GWh)

83 Additional 3% of time covered Peaks capped

84 GW GW GW GW Longer-term fluctuations /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /12/ /12/ /12/2010 Weather 2007 base 2008date 29/12/ /01/2011 Weather base date Weather base date geothermal geothermal hydro hydro tidal tidal wave wave onshore wind wind offshore wind solar PV industrial appliances appliances heating heating transport transport

85 Longer-term fluctuations Significant longer-term variation between months and years We need: Ideally many TWh of storage required Flexible and quickly dispatchable back-up

86 Longer-term fluctuations Significant longer-term variation between months and years We need: Ideally many TWh of storage required Flexible and quickly dispatchable back-up Gas allows storage of large quantities of energy Gas turbines allow flexible dispatch

87 Longer-term fluctuations Significant longer-term variation between months and years We need: Ideally many TWh of storage required Flexible and quickly dispatchable back-up Gas allows storage of large quantities of energy Gas turbines allow flexible dispatch Must be carbon neutral

88 Synthetic gas Hydrogen can easily be created from renewable electricity (electrolysis) But methane is easier to store and we have vast existing infrastructure The Sabatier reaction = methanation (upgrading) of hydrogen CO 2 + 4H 2 CH 4 + 2H 2 O

89 Synthetic gas Hydrogen can easily be created from renewable electricity (electrolysis) But methane is easier to store and we have vast existing infrastructure The Sabatier reaction = methanation (upgrading) of hydrogen CO 2 + 4H 2 CH 4 + 2H 2 O Less biomass required and use of surplus electricity.

90 Supply Demand

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93 (This is another story )

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96 3% of electricity 15% of the time

97 GW Synthetic gas store 60,000GWh storage = ~ 2 x UK today ~45GW back-up turbine capacity = ~ UK today

98 Lessons in managing variability

99 Lessons in managing variability What doesn t really help at all Spreading renewable resources about Using lots of different resources

100 Lessons in managing variability What doesn t really help at all Spreading renewable resources about Using lots of different resources What helps a bit: Demand side management ( smart charging ) Short-term storage (pumped hydro and heat)

101 Lessons in managing variability What doesn t really help at all Spreading renewable resources about Using lots of different resources What helps a bit: Demand side management ( smart charging ) Short-term storage (pumped hydro and heat) What we really need: Large flexible, quickly despatchable storage (not baseload energy)

102 Still more to learn Optimisation Sensitivity analysis simulate future weather? Analysis of extreme shortages

103 However, ZCB does show that We can provide a reliable, zero carbon energy system. Using our own resources. With 100% renewable energy. Without nuclear power or fossil fuels.

104 However, ZCB does show that We can provide a reliable, zero carbon energy system. Using our own resources. With 100% renewable energy. Without nuclear power or fossil fuels. We do have to make some big changes!

105 ( Dear Santa )

106 The aims of the ZCB project To demonstrate that integrated and technically feasible solutions do exist.

107 The aims of the ZCB project To demonstrate that integrated and technically feasible solutions do exist. To support and inspire the action needed to achieve a positive zero carbon future.

108 The aims of the ZCB project To demonstrate that integrated and technically feasible solutions do exist. To support and inspire the action needed to achieve a positive zero carbon future. To help us see what this kind of future looks like, and what it would mean to our lives

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114 We have the technology to power ourselves with 100% renewable energy, to feed ourselves sustainably and to leave a safe and habitable climate for our children and future generations. #ZCB