Hiroshi Komiyama. Japan as Forerunner of Emerging Issues ~What can Japan do?~ 6 December 2010

Transcription

1 6 December 2010 Japan as Forerunner of Emerging Issues ~What can Japan do?~ Hiroshi Komiyama Chairman of the Institute, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., Japan President emeritus, University of Tokyo

2 ( 10 8 ) (billion tonnes, oil equivalent) Expansion in 20 th century and the finite earth World population 出所 : 課題先進国日本 P59 Energy consumption 20X 出所 : 課題先進国日本 P61 億トン (10 8 t) Crop production 3.5X 7.5X 米 Rice 小麦 Wheat トウモロコシ Corn 出所 : 課題先進国日本 P59 Atmospheric CO 2 at Law Dome, Antarctica at Mauna Loa, Hawaii Year 出所 : 課題先進国日本 P62

3 2050 will be the crucial time of the human civilization, due to the shrinking earth, aging society and exploding knowledge will come soon. We need a concurrent approach to accelerate the process.

4 Vision 2050 Improve energy efficiency by three times Double the use of non-fossil energy Establish recycling system of materials to solve the crisis of global warming, environmental Issues and natural resources depletion.

5 Vision 2050

6 Saturation of artifacts is the key concept Number of automobile ownership(2007) No. of automobiles (million) No. of automobiles per population Japan USA Britain France Germany China India Source:Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

7 Saturation of artifacts in Japan Number of houses and households (8 million vacancy ) Total houses (thousand) total houses(thousands) households(thousands) Source:1958~2008:Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT) 2015~2030:National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

8 Saturation will come in 2 ~ 10 years in China Production 人口一人当たりセメント生産量 of Cement per [ton/ person 人 ] [ton] Production of cement per person Japan China USA France Year Source:Production of Cement:UN セメント生産量 Statistical : 国連統計年鑑 year book 人口 :UNSD Demographic Statistics Population:UNSD Demographic および国連統計年鑑より Statistics

9 Automobiles in China will saturate within 5~10years 0.08 人口一人当たり自動車販売台数の経年変化 Sales per person Automobiles sales per person Japan USA France Korea Rep. China Automobile sales:automobile industry handbook (Japanese) U.S. Automobile Production Figures from Wikipedia etc. Population:UNSD Demographic Statistics Year

10 Energy efficiency is secondly important! Fuel Consumption [L/km] Automobile energy consumption to 1/10 at US/European Cars Japanese Cars Hybrid Cars Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos Electric & Fuel cells Cars Vehicle Weight [kg]

11 Investment for energy efficiency can be refunded! Technology transfer can reduce emission (MJ/t) 6,000 Cement Energy Consumption per ton 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 theoretical value US Denmark Belgiu mfrance Swede n Japan Year Energy efficiency improvement by 3 times is feasible. Source: Japan Cement Association

12 22 nd century will be bright! Energy Scenario and CO 2 a) G C-ton 1.5G CO2 369 ppm Fossil resources Non- Fossil resources b) 2050 BAU case 22.0G C-ton CO2 600 ppm c) Vision G C-ton CO2 460 ppm 3.0G 1.5G d) After 22 nd Century CO2 280 ppm Data: from Vision 2050

13 Growth is rights but Efficiency is duties! Emission, G C-ton Developed Countries fossil Developing Countries non-fossil Compiled data created by The University of Tokyo

14 Challenge25 Campaign ー Team Komiyama s proposal- Daily life 12% Making things 3% Nuclear energy etc. 5% Forest etc. 5% CDM 5%

15 Energy consumption by final use in Japan Home Daily life Office Making things Transportation Theoretical limit of transportation is zero! C Hiroshi Komiyama

16 Energy consumption in houses and offices Houses others 24% lighting 10% Air-conditioner 28% Offices 50%: air-conditioner 20%: lighting kitchen 8% Water heating 30% Theoretical limit of air-conditioning is zero! エネルギー 経済統計要覧 2009 年版より

17 Technology innovation in Japan Water Heater US (majority) Tank storage 40% 5 Heat-pump (ecocute) 50% 4=200% 1 Japan (majority) Heat-to-use 80% 2.5 Fuel cell (enefarm) 36% elec. + 50% hot water 0

18 Komiyama ecohouse: Yes, we can! Heat-pump water heater Insulation : K=1.6 W/m 2 K New air-conditioner New refrigerator & lightings Hybrid car:22.6km/l Solar panel : 3.6 kw C 小宮山宏 81% reduction Investment refunded in 12 years

19 Self-Sufficiency in Japan at 2050 Komiyama s Proposal ENERGY 70% MINERAL 70% FOOD 70% WATER 100% Japanese goal as well as 21 st model of humanity C Hiroshi Komiyama

20 30% of town water leaks in the world! Filtration membrane: Japanese companies account for 50% in the world. Preventing water leak: Japanese technology is the best in the world. Filtration Membrane(RO/NF) Share of Japanese companies Woongjin Chemical 3.5% その他 9.0% ( 金額ベース 2008 年度 ) 東洋紡 5.3% 東レ 16.2% 日東電工 / Hydranautics 27.0% Dow Chemical 39.1% Technology to prevent water leak Rates of water leak Tokyo 3 % Los Angeles 9 % Moscow 10 % Cairo 20 % London 27 % Bangkok 33 % 出所 :( 株 ) 富士経済報告書 2009 年版水資源関連市場の現状と将来展望 Mexico 35 % Source: Bureau of Waterworks Tokyo Metropolitan Government Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

21 Japan s experience with Sumida river 1967 present 東京屋形船案内 環境省図で見る環境白書昭和 57 年

22 Japan s experience with Yokkaichi 1950 s present C Yokkaichi City kankyo/kogai.htm

23 Japan s experience with Kitakyusyu Source Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27

24 Coexistence of Economy and Environment Mt Fuji and Metropolis of Tokyo Genkai nuclear power plant Source: Nikkei Inc.

25 東京電力ホームページより作成 Emission of Sulfur from Thermal Power Plants 4.8 アメリカ U.S 年 3.2 U.K. イギリス 2002年 Germany ドイツ France フランス Italy イタリア Canada カナダ 日 本 Japan 発電量当たりのSOx発生量 SOx (kg/kwh) [g/kwh] Data Source: Tokyo Electric Power Company, web-site 火力発電所からの硫黄酸化物排出原単位の国際比較

26 Paradigm in 21st century Shrinking earth 20th Century 21st Century Infinite earth Financial crisis Pandemic Climate change Depleting resource Pollution Food, water Exploding knowledge Aging society Year million Year million Age65 Age15 64 age14 Age65 Age15 64 age14 26 Longevity Small birth rate Saturating demand Pension Medicine Care Work sharing Barrier free Sunlight O2 CO2 Chlorophyll H 2O H 2O carbohydrate CO2 photosynthesis Source Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P134 National census 2005, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

27 Green, silver & golden growth Shrinking earth Eco house Eco appliance Eco car Solar panel Wind mill Aging society Barrier free building Health monitoring Safe mobility Senses supporting Life supporting Exploding knowledge Structuring knowledge Structured knowledge- base Education Lifelong learning Value creation Hiroshi Komiyama

28 Patterns for Losing Functional Health follow-up survey of 6000 aged peopleー female 3 SelfSupport Graduate Decline(87.9%) 2 Early Decline(12.1%) 1 Death Age 出典 Akiyama et al. (2008) アメリカ老年学会2008年年次大会

29 Patterns for Losing Functional Health follow-up survey of 6000 aged peopleー male self3 support resilient Resilient (10.9%) (11%) 2 Graduate Decline gradual decline (70.1%) (70%) early decline Early Decline (19%) (19.0%) 1 death age 出典 Akiyama et al. (2008) アメリカ老年学会2008年年次大会 29

30 Change of Cognitive Ability Performance score 45 Ability of daily problem-solving Language ability (vocabulary) Ability of short-term memory AGE Source Cornelius and Caspi(1987, p150)

31 Successful Aged Society Participation in the society with pride is the key. Infrastructure for encouraging participation is needed. Devices supporting weakened abilities have to be developed. Japan is the closest country to the success!

32 Platinum society is a vision of 21st century ecological participated by all including seniors lifelong growing abundant in job opportunities sustainable society shining brightly created by green, silver, gold and various innovations

33 Layered Structure of Platinum Network Kita Kyushu Akita Pref. Aomori Pref., Aomori Yokohama Ibaragi Pref. Kashiwa Network of Cities Fukuoka Pref. Akita prefectural univ. Miyagi Pref. Asia Low Carbon Center North Japan New Energy Research Center, Hirosaki Univ. Platinum society study group, Wakayama Pref. MRI Edogawa ICAS, Ibaragi Kashiwa Campus, Univ. Tokyo Univ. Network of Universities LCS FDC FC SSC Network of Sister-Cities Hiroshi Komiyama

34 Platinum Network As of 2010,12/3 Tokyo wards Governor joins Mayor joins

35 Foreign countries will join us! Join in the quest for a platinum society Thank you Hiroshi Komiyama