Camp Far West Hydroelectric Project Relicensing

Transcription

1 Camp Far West Hydroelectric Project Relicensing Water Operations Model FERC Project No July 16, 2018

2 Overview Project and South Sutter Water District overview Operations model Overview Model Updates Hydrology Operations Validation 2

3 Bear River Watershed Drains Western Slope of Sierra Nevada mountains Tributary of the Feather River 3

4 Bear River Watershed Bear River inflow to Camp Far West is regulated upstream and includes abandoned hydropower flow imported from the Yuba River Upstream projects include Nevada ID s Yuba-Bear Project and PG&E s Drum- Spaulding Project, collectively the YB-DS projects 4

5 Camp Far West & South Sutter Water District Camp Far West Reservoir Hydroelectric project South Sutter Water District (SSWD) 5

6 Camp Far West Reservoir & SSWD Rock Creek Spillway Non-project Diversion Dam Dam Powerhouse Bear River 6

7 Non-project Diversion Dam & Canals North Canal to CFWID Non-project Diversion Dam Fish Release Main Canal South Canal to CFWID splits from Main Canal ~ 3/4 mile down-canal 7

8 Camp Far West Dam Built 1964 Capacity of 104,600 acre-feet when constructed Current capacity of 93,740 acre-feet Spillway crest at elevation 300 feet Three outlets Spillway Low-level outlet (bypass) Intake at 175 feet Penstock Intake at 197 feet 8

9 Camp Far West Hydroelectric Project Original license issued 1981 Operations began 1985 Installed capacity = 6.8 megawatts Turbine capacity = 750 cfs Historically operated at less than capacity 9

10 South Sutter Water District District formed 1954 Approximately 66,000 acres Prior to development of surface water supply farmers within the area relied solely on groundwater Groundwater elevation declines Surface water supplies account for ~1/3 of crop requirement Rice, orchards, pasture, row and field crops 10

11 Goals for Operations Model Can be used to simulate current and potential future operations Opportunity to review and conclude model is adequate Agree to use of Ops model in relicensing 11

12 Model Updates Implemented a user-defined down-ramping rate restriction Function of previous day release Added estimated Dry Creek inflows Revised the import-estimate forecast based on the selected upstream operation/inflow scenario Added a calculation for peak and off-peak power generation Implemented June 1 SSWD allocation adjustment Output to DSS worksheet 12

13 Camp Far West Operations Model 39-year simulation period on a daily time-step Water year (WY) 1976 through 2014 Microsoft Excel spreadsheet Boundaries are: Camp Far West Reservoir Bear River at confluence with Feather River 13

14 Operations Model Schematic 14

15 Inflow to Camp Far West Upstream Yuba-Bear/Drum-Spaulding operations influence inflow to Camp Far West Reservoir Three Inflow Scenarios 1) Historical Inflow - Based on reservoir mass balance of Storage and Outflow 2) Near-Term Condition - Upstream operations under future FERC license 3) Future Condition - Future upstream demands and future upstream FERC license 15

16 1,200,000 Near-Term Condition Inflow vs Historical Inflow 1,000, ,000 Acre-Feet 600, , , Historical Inflow Near-Term Condition 16

17 1,200,000 Future Condition Inflow vs Historical Inflow 1,000, ,000 Acre-Feet 600, , , Historical Inflow Future Condition 17

18 1,200,000 Unimpaired Bear River Developed by HDR for specific locations in the watershed Reservoir Inflow 1,000, ,000 Acre-Feet 600, ,000 Avg: 306,000 Acre-feet 200,

19 Average Annual Inflow Volumes Historical: 380,000 acre-feet Near-Term: 321,000 acre-feet Future: 292,000 acre-feet Unimpaired: 306,000 acre-feet 19

20 Regulatory Requirements Minimum bypass requirements in water right licenses and Article 29 of existing FERC license April 1 June 30 = minimum of 25 cfs or inflow All other times = minimum of 10 cfs or inflow Same every year; not based on hydrologic conditions or water year type Bay-Delta Settlement Agreement No required flood control space in Camp Far West 20

21 Bay-Delta Settlement Agreement 1995 SWRCB Water Quality Control Plan SSWD, CFWID and DWR entered February 2000 Settlement Agreement 4,400 acre-feet in Dry and Critical Years Defined by Sacramento Valley WY Hydrologic Classification ( Index) 21

22 Irrigation Operations Project is operated for irrigation SSWD Board of Director s allocates available surface water each spring SSWD irrigation season typically April 15 Oct 15 22

23 Agricultural Water Demands Agreement with Camp Far West Irrigation District (CFWID) CFWID receives 13,000 acre-feet SSWD = max of 110,000 acre-feet annually Deliveries based on available water supply Demand patterns determined based on review of historical diversions 23

24 Annual SSWD Diversions 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , , Acre-Feet Avg: 92,000 Acre-feet 24

25 Allocation Procedure Allocation procedure uses forecasted Available Water Supply and allocates water in the following priority 1) Minimum flow 2) BDSA flow 3) Camp Far West Irrigation District demands 4) South Sutter Water District demands Available Water Supply = CFW storage + forecasted inflow Determined in April for mid-april through mid-october irrigation season Annual operations with no carryover storage target 25

26 Inflow Forecast Procedure Forecast inflow broken into two components Bear River Supply Import Estimate from Yuba River 26

27 Bear River Supply Volumetric regressions between B120 Yuba at Smartsville & calculated unimpaired Bear River 300,000 Unimpaired Bear (acre-feet) 250, , , ,000 50,000 y = x R² = y = x R² = , , , , , , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 1,800,000 1,900,000 2,000,000 2,100,000 2,200,000 2,300,000 2,400,000 2,500,000 2,600,000 <- Dry : Non-Dry -> Yuba Forecast (acre-feet) Non-Dry Years Dry Years 27

28 Historical Yuba Imports Net imports to Bear River estimated as difference between Drum Canal (USGS ) Bear River Canal (USGS ) Used to develop relationship between forecasted Yuba supply and imports to Bear River 28

29 Yuba River Supply for Import Calculate Remaining Yuba Remaining Yuba = B120 Forecasted Yuba Available Upstream Reservoir Capacity Demand from YB-DS Upstream Reservoirs Jackson Meadows, Bowman, Fordyce, Spaulding and Rollins Reservoir capacity and demand vary based on inflow alternative 29

30 Forecast of Yuba Imports 300, , Imports to Bear (AF) 200, , ,000 50, , , , , , , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 1,500,000 1,600,000 1,700,000 1,800,000 1,900,000 2,000,000 2,100,000 Historical Data Remaining Yuba (AF) Import Function 30

31 Inflow Forecast Summary Components of forecast inflow: Bear River Supply Regression with B120 for Yuba River Import Estimate from Yuba River Function based on Remaining Yuba supply Function changes for historical, near-term, and future conditions Inflow forecast = Bear River Supply + Import Estimate 31

32 Inflow Forecast Summary 450, , ,000 Forecasted Inflow (acre-feet) 300, , , , ,000 50, Bear River Supply Import Estimate 32

33 Annual Irrigation Allocation Available Water Supply CFW storage + forecast inflow Required releases Irrigation demands AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP = (ssssssssssssss+ffffffffffffffff iiiiiiiiiiii rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr) dddddddddddd 33

34 June 1 st Allocation Update SSWD Allocation is re-evaluated on June 1 Cumulative inflow from April 1 to May 31 vs. forecasted Bear River impaired inflow Updated Available Water Supply CFW storage + forecasted remaining inflow - remaining demands and required releases Increase / Decrease Allocation Fixed Increase: 15% Fixed Decrease: -5% 34

35 Demand Patterns Continuous precipitation records compiled for SSWD Precipitation for the months preceding the irrigation season (Jan-April) summed Pre-irrigation season precipitation amount broken into percentiles Historical deliveries averaged over each precipitation percentile Average delivery for each percentile scaled to sum to unity MRV SEA SSWD A SSWD South Sutter Water District A Intersection Point MRV Marysville FOL Folsom SEA Sacramento Executive Airport Segment Distance (MI) MRV FOL 39 FOL SEA 22.5 SEA MRV 44 A SEA 13.5 SSWD MRV 11.7 FOL 35

36 Demand Patterns Annual variability WY type is not a good predictor Used accumulated precip January through April Percent Total Demand 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Avg 0%-20% 20%-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80%-100% 36

37 Camp Far West Evaporation Based on historical evaporation rates at Folsom Reservoir Monthly Evaporation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 37

38 Hydropower Generation Hydropower generation is incidental to water supply The turbine at Camp Far West Powerhouse is subject to the following constraints: Physical turbine capacity of 750 cfs Minimum Water Surface Elevation (WSE) of 236 ft Minimum turbine flow as a function of WSE WSE above 278 ft, minimum turbine flow is 300 cfs WSE between 278 and 236 ft, minimum turbine flow is 130 cfs User-specified ramp down rate applied to turbine and low-level outlet 38

39 Hydropower Parameters Net head = outlet elevation - tailwater elevation Discharge Turbine efficiency 148 Tailwater Elevation 147 Water Surface Elevation (ft) Turbine Flow (cfs)

40 Turbine Efficiency Curves based on Turbine-Pro output compiled by Mead and Hunt Reduction of 2% applied to efficiency for model calibration 100% 90% 80% 70% Turbine Efficiency 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Turbine Flow Rate (cfs) ft) ft ft ft ft ft 40

41 Lower Bear River Ops model simulates Bear River from the diversion dam to confluence with Feather River Accretion from diversion dam to Wheatland gage Calculated average monthly accretions Dry Creek Inflows 8 7 Net Accretion/Depletion (cfs) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 41

42 Model Validation Validation run: historical calculated inflow Include past water transfers from Camp Far West Historical storage adjusted to 2008 bathymetry for comparison with simulated storage Validation period from WY Compare historical, observed data with model results Camp Far West storage Camp Far West release Energy generation Main Canal diversions Bear River flow 42

43 Camp Far West Storage 120, ,000 80,000 Acre-Feet 60,000 40,000 20, , /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ ,000 80,000 Acre-Feet 60,000 40,000 20, /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2013 Model Historical 43

44 Total Camp Far West Release 14,000 12,000 Acre-Feet 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ ,000 12,000 Acre-Feet 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2013 Model Historical 44

45 Energy Generation 6,000 5,000 MWh 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2003 6,000 5,000 MWh 4,000 3,000 Model Historical 2,000 1, /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2013 Model Historical 45

46 Main Canal Delivery 1, Acre-Feet /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2004 1, Acre-Feet /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2013 Model Historical 46

47 Bear River Flow at Wheatland 4,000 3,500 3,000 cfs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2004 4,000 3,500 3,000 cfs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1/2013 Model Historical 47

48 Model User Inputs Inflow Alternatives Historical Near-Term Condition Future Condition User Defined Min Flows Current minimum instream flows Specify instream flow by WY-Type in half month increments 48

49 YB-DS WY Type Method Water year unimpaired runoff of Yuba River at Smartsville DWR Bulletin 120 Initial WY type in February Updated March, April, and May May WY type applies until February of following year 49

50 WY Type Determination Upstream Yuba Bear Drum Spaulding WY type system applied to this model B120 Forecasted Unimpaired Yuba River Runoff or Full Natural Flow Water-Year Type (1,000 acre-feet) Less or equal to Critically Dry 901 to 1,460 Dry 1,461 to 2,190 Below Normal 2,191 to 3,240 Above Normal Greater than 3,240 Wet 50

51 Camp Far West Hydroelectric Project Relicensing Water Operations Model FERC Project No July 16, 2018