Vulnerability of Infrastructure due to Climate Change

Transcription

1 1

2 Vulnerability of Infrastructure due to Climate Change A Case Study of London, Ontario Elisabeth Bowering and Angela Peck M. E. Sc. Candidates Slobodan P. Simonovic, Professor The University of Western Ontario London, Canada

3 Flooding

4 Study Objectives Develop and test a methodology for engineering assessment of risk to municipal infrastructure due to climate change Study is within the boundaries of the City of London, Ontario with a focus on flooding 2

5 Research Methodology Rainfall-runoff transformation Hydrologic Model Floodplain mapping Hydraulic Model Infrastructure Flood Risk due to Climate Change Input Climate Scenarios Risk Assessment Analysis of Change in Climate Variables Infrastructure Risk Assessment due to Change in Climate Variables 3

6 Research Methodology Rainfall-runoff transformation Hydrologic Model Floodplain mapping Hydraulic Model Infrastructure Flood Risk due to Climate Change Input Climate Scenarios Risk Assessment Analysis of Change in Climate Variables Infrastructure Risk Assessment due to Change in Climate Variables 4

7 Data Collection Infrastructure Transportation Critical Infrastructure Sewer Infrastructure Water Distribution Network Flood Protection Structures Additional Economic and Social 5

8 Research Methodology Rainfall-runoff transformation Hydrologic Model Floodplain mapping Hydraulic Model Infrastructure Flood Risk due to Climate Change Input Climate Scenarios Risk Assessment Analysis of Change in Climate Variables Infrastructure Risk Assessment due to Change in Climate Variables 6

9 Climate Models Use of Weather Generator to create two climate change scenarios: Lower Bound Scenario Perturbation of historical data No climate change factors included Upper Bound Scenario Modified historical data using GCM Each scenario models the 100 and 250 year floods 7

10 Research Methodology Rainfall-runoff transformation Hydrologic Model Floodplain mapping Hydraulic Model Infrastructure Flood Risk due to Climate Change Input Climate Scenarios Risk Assessment Analysis of Change in Climate Variables Infrastructure Risk Assessment due to Change in Climate Variables 8

11 Research Methodology Rainfall-runoff transformation Hydrologic Model Floodplain mapping Hydraulic Model Infrastructure Flood Risk due to Climate Change Input Climate Scenarios Risk Assessment Analysis of Change in Climate Variables Infrastructure Risk Assessment due to Change in Climate Variables 9

12 Hydrologic & Hydraulic Modelling Hydrologic HEC-HMS Generate streamflows Hydraulic HEC-RAS and HEC- GeoRAS Generate water surface TIN 10

13 Research Methodology Rainfall-runoff transformation Hydrologic Model Floodplain mapping Hydraulic Model Infrastructure Flood Risk due to Climate Change Input Climate Scenarios Risk Assessment Analysis of Change in Climate Variables Infrastructure Risk Assessment due to Change in Climate Variables 11

14 Risk Assessment Quantitative Analysis Risk Assessment Workshop Input Performance Response Loads; Capacity Qualitative Analysis Environmental Impacts; Serviceability; Policies; etc. Output Risk Tables & Risk Maps 12

15 Quantitative Analysis Infrastructure inundation levels Consequence Variables 1) Loss of Function (LF) 2) Loss of Equipment (LE) 3) Loss of Structure (LS) Risk = Consequence Multiplier x Damages x Probability 13

16 Qualitative Analysis Fuzzy Set Theory Interviews Risk Indices Fuzzy Reliability Index Fuzzy Robustness Index Fuzzy Resiliency Index 14

17 Output - Tables Deterministic and Fuzzy Risk Indices Easily referable Facilitate Prioritization Risk Indices Infrastructure Element Deterministic Reliability Index Fuzzy Robustness Index Resiliency Index Arterial Road Bridge, Etc 15

18 Output - Maps GIS spatial representation of risk Facilitates policy development and decision making 16

19 Acknowledgements The City of London NSERC OGS For additional information: 17

20 20